Georgia is dealing with injuries to numerous key players
This is Alabama coach Kalen DeBoer’s first SEC conference game
Kirby Smart was 1-5 against Nick Saban’s Alabama
It’s hard to find a better college football matchup than the one happening in Tuscaloosa on Saturday as the No. 4 Alabama Crimson Tide will host the No. 2 Georgia Bulldogs in CFB Week 5.
Despite being a two-time national champion, Kirby Smart is only 1-5 against his SEC rival as Georgia’s head coach. This matchup has a different complexion, however, as it is the first of the post-Nick Saban era and the first with Kalen DoBoer in the headset.
The Bulldogs fell out of the top spot in the AP rankings two weeks ago and are battling a slew of injuries, while the Tide are out to prove that talks of their demise are greatly exaggerated.
Here, we will analyze the matchup and share our best Alabama vs. Georgia betting picks.
Odds from FanDuel Sportsbook. Place your bets on this matchup and claim a bonus at FanDuel: Bet $5, Get $200 in Bonus Bets.
Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
---|---|---|---|
No. 2 Georgia | -2.5 (-106) | -126 | Over 48.5 (-110) |
No. 4 Alabama | +2.5 (-114) | +105 | Under 48.5 (-110) |
Buried beneath the exciting rise of SEC programs such as first-timer Texas, Ole Miss, and Tennessee, is the matchup that defined college football for the past seven years.
Georgia’s only loss in the last three seasons came in the SEC Championship to Alabama last season. Without that, and the best game of Jalen Milroe’s career, there’s a realistic chance the Dawgs would have won three straight national titles.
Still, the element of revenge is not what will drive UGA into Bryant-Denny Stadium. Instead, it will be a chance to “get right” by overcoming a variety of injuries and proving that any issues with Bama were related to Saban and weren’t institutionally driven.
Beating Alabama won’t be an easy task, Saban or no Saban. They demolished Wisconsin 42-10 in their last game and, like Georgia, got a week off to prepare.
DoBoer is also 107-12 in his career as a head coach and showed the big-game moxy needed to get to a national championship final with Washington last year.
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Alabama is fifth in net EPA per play to Georgia’s seventh. They outperformed them on both sides of the ball and have the fifth-highest average scoring margin (+40.3), whereas Georgia is 22nd (+16).
Bama QB Jalen Milroe only averaged 248.7 yards of total offense, less than he did last year, but completed a career-high 67.3 percent of his passes and ranks 22nd in QBR (76.2). The offense as a whole also ranks 14th in yards per carry (5.8).
The man going toe-to-toe with Milroe is Carson Beck, UGA’s senior QB and a potential first-round pick in the NFL Draft. Beck is playing through a sprained AC joint in his non-throwing shoulder and is without his preseason All-American guard, Tate Ratledge.
Georgia only scored 13 points and gained 262 total yards of offense in its last game against Kentucky. It’s no secret that their bye week was likely spent addressing the deficiencies that reared their ugly heads against the Wildcats.
UGA’s path to victory presumably runs through their defense. Whereas they rank 83rd in scoring, they held teams to the fourth-fewest points per game (7.5). Alabama is close behind in sixth (8.7).
The biggest question is how many splash plays an aggressive DeBoer will be able to land against the Dawgs’ defense, and what kind of answers Beck and an offense ranked 82nd in total production will have in response.
Saban might be gone, but the Tide are still at home, are healthy, and looked much better than their opponent the last time they were on the field. This should be a cagey matchup but is one we expect to settle in favor of the home underdogs.
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When: Saturday, September 28 at 7:30 p.m. ET
Where: Bryant-Denny Stadium, Tuscaloosa, AL
Watch: ABC/ESPN+
BetRivers has the best odds for Georgia bettors with the Bulldogs at -1.5 (-110). FanDuel is the best spot for Alabama bettors and has them priced at +2.5 (-114).
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Georgia Injuries
Daniel Harris (DB) - Questionable (Disciplinary)
Mykel Williams (DL) - Questionable (Ankle)
Roderick Robinson (RB) - Out (Toe)
Tate Ratledge (OL) - Out (Ankle, Knee)
Warren Brinson (DL) - Probable
Jordan Hall (DL) - Out (Leg)
Alabama Injuries
Qua Russaw (LB) - Questionable (Leg)
Cole Williams (WR) - Questionable (Arm)
Jalen Hale (WR) - Out (Knee)
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