Suns, Warriors, Mavericks: Who Will Miss the NBA Play-In Tournament?

The race for the NBA Western Conference Playoffs is in full swing, and its perilous path may result in several legends of the game booking an early vacation. 

Kevin Durant - who on Tuesday became the eighth player in league history to score 30,000 career points - and the Phoenix Suns are the 11th seed and OUT of the postseason at the time of writing.

Steph Curry, Draymond Green, and Jimmy Butler are only one spot away and one game above the Suns, while the Mavericks are 1.5 games above the drop zone and are set to be without Anthony Davis for an extended time. 

Father time might be having a hard time in his ongoing bout with LeBron James, but his presence is very real for these legends. 

Which teams will recover and keep their future odds and NBA Finals hopes alive? Let’s take a look.

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook. Head to FanDuel to place your bets: Bet $5, Get $150 in Bonus Bets if Your Bet Wins

Phoenix Suns - 26-27 (11th)

• +8500 NBA Finals odds

• +4200 odds to win the West

• +320 to make the playoffs

The Suns are a game below the projected ninth and 10th seeds, the Sacramento Kings and Golden State Warriors. They’re only 10-16 on the road and have the toughest remaining schedule in the entire league.

Their upcoming games include two against the defending champion Boston Celtics and Memphis Grizzlies, who they’re yet to beat, one each against the respective conference leaders, the Oklahoma City Thunder and Cleveland Cavaliers, the New York Knicks, Denver Nuggets, and more.

Phoenix is 18th in net rating (-2.2) despite being 11-10 in 2025, per Cleaning the Glass. Their defense was 29th in efficiency against top-10 offenses, while their offense was 18th against top-10 defenses during that time.

It was also outscored by nine points per 100 possessions (18th) against teams with top-10 point differentials for the season as a whole.

The takeaway? The Suns have been awful dealing with adversity, whether that be playing away from home or against tough opponents. That spells disaster given no team in the league faces a more difficult upcoming stretch of games.

There are a variety of issues to pinpoint, including the team’s scoring reliance on Durant and Devin Booker, their terrible defensive rotations, and their attention to detail.

All that being said, they have the talent to significantly raise their level of play. But with six losses in their last eight games, they’re going to need a massive turnaround post-All-Star break.

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Golden State Warriors - 27-26 (10th)

• +6000 NBA Finals odds

• +2200 to win the West

• -118 to make the playoffs

The Warriors’ dynasty years are over. They’re old, they lack athleticism, and their players don’t fit together as seamlessly as past iterations of the roster did.

GSW’s acquisition of Jimmy Butler likely saved itself from missing the playoffs. But relative to the expectations of any team with Curry on it, this team is in trouble.

The Warriors’ lack of individual scorers allowed opposing defenses to put tons of bodies on Curry who, because of his age, is playing fewer minutes than he did in recent years (though his workload increased in recent weeks).

The Warriors actually went 11-12 and ranked 11th in net rating (-4.8) against top-10 teams. Their biggest weakness is their inconsistency in every area of the game, whether that be offense, defense, or rebounding.

Butler has the chance to make the biggest impact as a connector. He won’t go bombs-away from three like Klay Thompson did, but he can apply pressure at the rim, create for his teammates, and give opposing defenses a reason not to send all of their attention to Curry.

Unlike the Suns, the Warriors are 19th in remaining strength of schedule. They also won their first two games with Butler, which is promising.

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Dallas Mavericks - 28-26 (8th)

• +4800 NBA Finals odds

• +2600 to win the West

• +142 to make the playoffs

Dallas was embroiled in controversy when it traded 25-year-old Luka Doncic for Anthony Davis. It then became a bonafide inferno when general manager Nico Harrison insisted that it was his idea to trade Doncic, and that he was not approached by the Los Angeles Lakers.

The Mavs’ new-look roster has promise. Kyrie Irving can create his shot whenever he wants, Klay Thompson spaces the floor, and the trio of Davis, PJ Washington, and Daniel Gafford or Dereck Lively II can dominate the interior in every aspect.

However, none of that compares to the luxury of having a five-time First-Team All-NBA guard who just led the team to the playoffs.

Predictably, Davis suffered an injury that is expected to keep him out for at least a month in his Dallas debut. Gafford is out for at least a couple of weeks with a knee sprain, and Lively is out for another month with a stress fracture in his ankle.

The Mavericks are only 15-17 without Doncic on the floor this season. Their -1.5 net rating in those games would tie the San Antonio Spurs, the 12th seed in the West, for 17th.

Dallas ranks 20th in strength of remaining schedule, but it needs to get healthy and still has to learn how to fit its pieces together. 

With only 1.5 games separating Dallas from the drop, it’s going to be a long couple of months for fans of Big D.

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