Warriors vs. Rockets Prediction and Odds: Can Curry Replicate His Heroics?

The Golden State Warriors will take a 1-0 series lead on the road to face the Houston Rockets in Game 2 of the Western Conference Playoffs.

The Dubs earned a 10-point win in a low-scoring affair in Game 1 on Sunday, 95-85. Stephen Curry and Jimmy Butler combined for 56 points in 41 average minutes, while Alperen Sengun had 26 points and nine rebounds in the losing effort.

The Rockets blew their sizable rest advantage before Game 1 and desperately need to win tonight to stay alive in this series. They shot just 39.1 percent from the field and 20.7 percent from three in the first matchup and will be tasked with improving their half-court offense without sacrificing their defensive integrity.

Here, I will break down the Warriors vs. Rockets betting odds and share my favorite pick from the matchup.

For more betting insights, check out our daily NBA Player Props and Best Bets.

Warriors vs. Rockets Betting Odds for Wednesday, April 23

The Warriors are against the spread, ATS as an underdog, and ATS on the road.

The Rockets are ATS, ATS as a favorite, and ATS at home.

Odds from BetMGM Sportsbook. Use our BetMGM promo code WSNSPORTS to get up to $1,500 in bonus bets*.

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Warriors vs. Rockets Prediction

Golden State Warriors Preview

The Warriors have been here before—that much was clear in Game 1.

Despite losing in overtime of Game 82 and being pushed to the brink in the first round of the Play-In Tournament, a bruised and fatigued Warriors team put forth a championship-level display of intensity and effort in Sunday’s opening gambit. That much was needed against a Houston squad under strict instruction from Ime Udoka to be physical and try to impose themselves on their opponent.

One of the keys to Golden State's defensive dominance was the intelligent back-side defending. Houston doesn’t have efficient pull-up shooters, meaning that the Warriors either lived with those shots or forced the ball to Sengun, who then saw a line of bodies between him and the next pass. That was huge in holding him to just one assist after he averaged 4.9 during the regular season.

Steve Kerr also pushed the all-famous Steph Curry button, which means sit back and watch him go to work. Curry smartly went on repeating rack-attacks early in the game when he was being top-locked before taking over late with ridiculous three-point shot-making.

Golden State finished the game with only 11 turnovers. That was three below their season average and 3.3 below the average amount forced by the Rockets.

The Warriors are now 4-2 against the Rockets across the regular- and postseason. It’s often a cop-out to say that one team is just “better” than its opponent, but Curry’s shot-making ability is galaxies beyond that of anyone on the opposing team.

Butler’s ability to dominate the mid-range and get to the free-throw line also means that the Warriors have the two best half-court offensive players in the series. That spells trouble for Houston if they continue to keep the series played at this pace, though their offensive limitations don’t give them much of a choice. 

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Houston Rockets Preview

Okay, let’s look at this from the opposite perspective.

First, the Rockets players just need to show up. Nobody aside from Sengun scored more than 11 points, and leading scorer Jalen Green had seven on 3-15 shooting. His backcourt mate, Fred VanVleet, also had 10 points on a putrid 4-19 (2-13) shooting.

It’s no secret that the Rockets are terrible at trying to get to their best stuff in a congested half-court. If Green isn’t scoring 20 points, they have close to no chance of winning a single game in this series.

One major positive of Game 1 was Houston’s performance on the boards. They entered the game as the best offensive rebounding team in basketball, and they left it with a 52-36 margin on the glass and 22-6 margin on the offensive boards.

Second-chance points and timely transition opportunities are going to be key for Houston in this series, along with their trademark physical defense. Still, having Amen Thompson on the floor with Green and VanVleet when they aren’t making their shots means Houston is confined to being one of the worst offenses in the entire league. 

I’d like to see the Warriors get to actions involving Green and Sengun or with Green being one pass away from Sengun while he is in the post. Establishing an early rhythm for the pair gives them the best chance of overcoming Curry’s long-range ability.

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Warriors vs. Rockets Betting Pick

• Warriors vs. Rockets pick: Warriors +3.5 (-110) at BetMGM

The Warriors have an implied 77.3 percent chance to win the series, according to the series price. That’s despite them being one-point underdogs in Game 1 and 3.5-point underdogs in Game 2, which will come off the back of a win.

What I’m saying is that these odds are confusing and contradictory. The Rockets deserve their respect for working their way to the second seed in a loaded Western Conference, but I’m highly skeptical of their ability to even score basic buckets in this series.

I think this will be over in about five games. I almost expect the let-down game to come back in California when the Warriors can “relax,” but they’ve been in playoff mode for at least a month and will be amped up for another battle with a young and limited opponent.

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How to Watch Warriors vs. Rockets on 4/23/25

• When: Wednesday, April 23 @ 8:30/9:30 p.m. CT/ET

• Where: Toyota Center (Houston), Houston, TX

• TV: TNT/truTV/Max