Warriors vs. Knicks Prediction and Odds: Can the Dubs Stay Hot in MSG

The Golden State Warriors (33-28) will put their red-hot form to the test against the New York Knicks (40-20) in the Big Apple on Tuesday.

The Dubs went 8-1 with Jimmy Butler in the lineup and knocked off the Charlotte Hornets 119-101 last night. They climbed up to sixth in the Western Conference but are still only 1.5 games above the 10th seed.

The Knicks are on a three-game win streak and took down the Miami Heat in their last game on Sunday. They’re third in the Eastern Conference but are 0-7 against the Boston Celtics, Cleveland Cavaliers, and Oklahoma City Thunder, who all consistently played at a level at which the Warriors are currently playing.

Here, we will preview the matchup and share our favorite Warriors vs. Knicks betting picks.

Also, take a look at our NBA Player Props and Best Bets article for Tuesday, March 4.

Warriors vs. Knicks Betting Odds for Tuesday, March 4

The Warriors are 32-28-1 (53.3 percent) against the spread, 12-11 (52.2 percent) ATS as an underdog, and 17-13-1 (56.7 percent) ATS on the road.

The Knicks are 28-31-1 (47.5 percent) ATS, 25-25-1 (50 percent) ATS as a favorite, and 14-16-1 (46.7 percent) ATS at home.

Warriors vs. Knicks Prediction

Golden State Warriors Preview

Maybe the dynasty was never over.

The Warriors incandescent spell with Butler on the floor has provided a glimpse of havoc the Warriors could cause from a lower seed once the playoffs begin. Butler himself only averaged 16.4 points, 5.8 rebounds, and 5.6 assists, but his awareness, defense, intensity, and IQ allowed Steph Curry to average 29.6 points and 5.9 assists during those same games.

That’s a stark difference compared to the 22.9 points and 6.3 assists he averaged without his new teammates on the court.

The Dubs are only 16th in offensive and eighth in defensive rating with a +1.7 net rating for the year. Since Butler’s first game on Feb. 8, they’re fourth in offensive and third in defensive rating with a +13.5 net rating (third) and 8-2 record.

That begs a very clear question: Is this sustainable?

The Warriors beat the Houston Rockets, Milwaukee Bucks, Chicago Bulls, Orlando Magic, Sacramento Kings, and Charlotte Hornets (twice) and split with the Dallas Mavericks with Butler. In other words, they didn’t play a team better than the fifth seed in the Western Conference.

The Knicks will clearly be the best time they played with their new lineup and will present a variety of challenges. The Knicks are a drop-heavy defense that will have players in position to contest Butler’s drives, but they could run into trouble trying to stay attached to Curry on the perimeter.

The battle on the boards will be crucial in this matchup. The Dubs rank ninth in rebound rate for the year and do a nice job crashing from the wings, which is what it takes to hold off persistent wings like Josh Hart.

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New York Knicks Preview

At their best, the Knicks have arguably the best offense in the sport. They’re fourth in rating for the year but are just 18th in defensive rating, giving them an average point differential of +4.6 per 100 possessions (sixth).

The team’s continued defensive struggles are highly uncharacteristic for a Tom Thibodeau-coached team. His insistence on playing his starters heavy minutes could also be blamed for the team’s recent shooting inefficiency as they dropped to 14th in effective field goal percentage over their last 10 games despite being fourth for the year.

Continuing with the theme of defense, the Knicks allowed the highest three-point percentage to their opponents. That spells trouble against the greatest shooter to ever walk the Earth and a Golden State team that is fourth in three-pointers made per game (15.3).

All that said, the Knicks still have an ace in their pocket: Jalen Brunson in the clutch.

The Knicks’ PG is the favorite to win the Clutch Player of the Year award and is largely responsible for his team ranking sixth in clutch net rating (+10.7), clutch moments being defined as situations in which there are less than five minutes remaining and a game is within five points.

The Warriors, for comparison, are 16th (+1.1).

There’s still general belief that the Knicks can become at least a solid defense with OG Anunoby and Mitchell Robinson back in the fold. The data supports that as, excluding garbage time, the Knicks allowed four fewer points per 100 possessions with Anunoby and five fewer points per 100 possessions with Robinson, although the latter only played two games thus far.

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Warriors vs. Knicks Betting Pick

• Warriors vs. Knicks pick: Knicks -4.5 (-110) at BetMGM

The Knicks were horrific against the three best teams in the league and rank 11th in net rating (-5.1) against teams with top 10 point differentials, while the Warriors (-4.6) are ninth in that category. Golden State is actually 11th in differential for the year but is playing at an elite level with Butler.

This presents a true test for the Warriors on the road against the best team they will have faced with their new squad. It’s also a moment for the Knicks to dig in and forge a defensive identity after they lost some of the resilience they showed last year.

The Dubs have been riding high, but are about to face the most adversity they have in the last month. We like the Knicks to win and cover at home.

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How to Watch Warriors vs. Knicks on 3/4/25

• When: Tuesday, March 4 @ 7:30 p.m. ET

• Where: Madison Square Garden, New York, NY

• TV: TNT/Max