Warriors vs. Heat Prediction and Odds: Butler Makes His Return to Miami

The Golden State Warriors (41-30) are heading to the East Coast to take on the Miami Heat (30-41) on Tuesday evening.

The Dubs lost their last game to the Atlanta Hawks, 124-115, following an injury to Steph Curry the game before. They’re only two games above .500 on the road and are unsure if they will have their superstar point guard ready to go by game time.

The Heat broke their 10-game losing streak with a 122-105 win over the Charlotte Hornets their last time on the court. They’re a horrific 5-17 since trading Jimmy Butler to the Warriors and are 16-19 in their arena.

Here, I will break down the Warriors vs. Heat matchup and share my favorite betting picks for the contest.

For more betting insights, check out our NBA Player Props and Best Bets.

Warriors vs. Heat Betting Odds for Tuesday, March 25

The Warriors are 35-34-2 (50.7 percent) against the spread, 18-15-1 (54.6 percent) ATS on the road, and 21-23-2 (47.7 percent) ATS as a favorite.

The Heat are 31-39-1 (44.3 percent) ATS, 18-17 (51.4 percent) ATS at home, and 15-18-1 (45.5 percent) ATS as an underdog.

Odds from BetMGM Sportsbook. Use our BetMGM promo code WSNSPORTS to get up to $1,500 in bonus bets.

Warriors vs. Heat Prediction

Golden State Warriors Preview

The Warriors were scorching hot with the Curry, Butler, and Draymond Green trio on the court. That’s still made them reliant on aging players arguably all past their prime, but that doesn’t matter if they’re going to continue winning games at the rate they have.

The potential loss of Curry is, unlike his physical stature, enormous. He averaged 25 points and 6.1 assists per game in March and averaged 30.7 points in February as he unsurprisingly put together his best stretch of play once he had another credible offensive threat, Butler, to take the pressure off his shoulders.

The Warriors are 17th in offensive and seventh in defensive rating with a +2.4 net rating (10th) for the year. They also ranked 12th in offensive and second in defensive rating with a +7.7 net rating (fourth) over the last month of play.

One of the biggest issues that the Warriors continue to face, just as they have for years, is their turnovers. They’re in the bottom 10 in turnover percentage over the last 30 days and were average on the boards.

On the plus side, GSW was fifth in three-point makes per game and seventh in percentage while conceding the fifth-fewest threes per game during this same stretch.

Another factor in this game is Butler’s return to South Beach. He and his former employers did not have a pleasant separation, with Butler choosing to skip practice and being suspended several times by the team.

Butler is the type of person that will respond to challenges and look for the opportunity to embarrass people he feels did him wrong. Draymond Green feeds off of this energy and will likely treat this game like it’s Game Seven of the NBA Finals, making the two of them capable of holding down the fort even if Curry misses the contest.

Regardless of who plays, the Warriors still need to get over their road woes. They’re 18-16 away from their building and 4-2 on the road with Butler, albeit against unimpressive competition.

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Miami Heat Preview

The Heat are unrecognizable compared to the recent iterations of their team that perennially challenged for the conference championship. They also no longer appear to be capable of pulling a rabbit out of the hat and turning standard role players into stars, a bit that was bound to run its course eventually.

The Heat’s 10-game losing streak was their longest stretch without a win since 2008 and speaks to the state of their roster. They have forced Tyler Herro to transition to become a full-time initiator despite his natural inclination being to shoot the ball, a la Devin Booker, their frontcourt pairing of Bam Adebayo and Kel’el Ware doesn’t fit well, and they don’t have impactful bench players delivering consistent minutes.

The Heat are 23rd in offensive and 12th in defensive rating with a -1.6 net rating (19th) for the year. They’re also 25th in offensive and 15th in defensive rating with a -4.1 net rating (23rd) over the last 30 days, during which they went 4-12.

Despite their frontcourt size with Adebayo, Ware, and Andrew Wiggins, the team also posted the fifth-worst rebound rate over the last month. That’s while they were 24th in made threes per game.

There are plenty of areas to improve on this Heat roster before they will become competitive. This offseason will dramatically impact their future trajectory and force them to choose if they want to trade Adebayo and Herro for draft capital or try to dip into free agency to land a star player to fill Butler’s former role.

While the Warriors haven’t been great on the road, the Heat are a losing team at home. 

Miami is still 5.5 games clear of the 11th-place Toronto Raptors and is essentially locked into the Play-In Tournament, but it’s hard to see them winning two games against the Atlanta Hawks, Orlando Magic, and Chicago Bulls.

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Warriors vs. Heat Betting Pick

• Warriors vs. Heat pick: Heat -5.5 (-110) at BetMGM

The Warriors have obviously been playing better basketball recently, but they struggled on the road and have faced an easy schedule. That said, the Heat are one of the easiest opponents in the league at this juncture.

There’s simply not much to point to in the Heat’s favor aside from Curry’s injury. Even still, Butler and Green will get up for this game, and the Heat don’t have a home-court advantage to speak of.

I love the Warriors to win and would back them on the spread as well.

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How to Watch Warriors vs. Heat on 3/25/25

• When: Tuesday, March 25 @ 7:30 p.m. ET

• Where: Kaseya Center, Miami, FL

• TV: TNT/Max