Timberwolves vs. Trail Blazers Prediction: Timberwolves Look for Back-to-Back Wins Against Blazers

The Minnesota Timberwolves (38-16) will take the best record in the Western Conference into a road matchup with the Portland Trail Blazers (15-38) on Thursday evening.

The Wolves hunted down the Blazers on Tuesday, beating them 121-109 behind 41 points from Anthony Edwards. They won three straight games by 12+ points and are riding high heading into the weekend’s All-Star break.

Portland isn’t in as fortuitous of a situation and lost five straight games, including three at home. It’s also 0-9 against the top four teams in the West and will need to produce one of its best performances of the season to walk out with a win.

Here, we will break down the betting odds and share our favorite pick for the Timberwolves vs. Trail Blazers matchup.

Timberwolves vs. Trail Blazers Betting Odds for Thursday, Feb. 15

The Timberwolves are favored by 8.5 points, the same line they covered on Tuesday that led them to 6-2 against the spread over their last eight outings. They’re 10-10 (50%) ATS as a road favorite and 5-4 (55.5%) ATS when favored by at least 8.5 points.

The Blazers have not covered in three straight games, though they covered in four straight just before that. They’re 10-10 (50%) ATS as a home underdog and 8-8 ATS when spotted at least 8.5 points.

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The T’Wolves have been one of the best and most consistent teams in the Western Conference and the NBA. They’re 15-5 against teams under .500 and already beat Portland twice by an average of 17.5 points.

Minnesota excels largely because of its defense. The team holds opponents to the seventh-lowest shooting and three-point percentage and fewest points per game, culminating in the best defensive rating in the NBA.

Rudy Gobert allowed the third-lowest field goal percentage amongst all starting centers with at least 30 games played, while five Wolves players are in the top eight in individual defensive rating.

The weakest point in Minnesota’s game is its offense—however, they scored the 11th-most points per 100 possessions over the last 15 games and shoot 39.3% from three-point land, the second-best mark in the league.

The Wolves’ ball security is an issue at times. They rank 20th in turnover percentage over their last 15 games and 19th in opponents’ points off turnovers despite having a sure ball-handler in Mike Conley on the roster.

On a more positive note, the Wolves rarely give away cheap points. They rank second in paint defense and fourth in transition defense on top of being a great rebounding team (sixth in rebound rate).

Minnesota is 6.4 points per 100 possessions worse on the road than it is at home, though its road net rating of +3.6 is still the sixth-best mark in the league.

Edwards’ 41 points on Tuesday led the team by a wide margin as no other player cracked 18. The rest of the team shot 36% from three (only 2-11 by the rest of the starters), but they made up for it with 17 stocks (steals and blocks).

The Blazers have not had much of an offense at all this year and are 20th in points per 100 possessions over the last 15 games, which is actually a drastic improvement on their season performance.

Unfortunately for them, their mediocre defense has become terrible, ranking 26th in def. rating over the same stretch.

The Blazers are 25th in three-point (35.4%) and 29th in field goal percentage (44.1%). They turn the ball over too much (28th in turnover percentage) and don’t share the ball well (29th in assist percentage). They’re also a bottom-10 rebounding team and have a big man in Deandre Ayton who will often float through games, though he went for 22 points and 16 rebounds on Tuesday.

Portland has a -4.1 net rating at home and struggled mightily against top teams. Anfernee Simons averaged 25.6 points over his last five games and made four threes in each of them and will have to be at his best for his team to have a chance after shooting just 31.6% from the field on Tuesday.

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Timberwolves vs. Trail Blazers Prediction and Betting Pick

It can be tough to beat (and cover against) a team twice in three days, but the Boston Celtics just proved it's possible by beating the Brooklyn Nets by 50 two days after an eight-point win.

Minnesota has the advantage in every department in this matchup. They’ve also been consistent against bad teams, whereas Portland is yet to beat a top contender in the West. 

Even though it’s unlikely Edwards will go for 40+ again and the rest of the team needs to be better on offense, we still like the Wolves to cover the large line as they prepare for a week of R&R during the All-Star break.

Timberwolves vs. Trail Blazers pick: Timberwolves -8.5  at BetMGM

How to Watch Timberwolves vs. Trail Blazers

• When: Thursday, Feb. 15, 7:00/10:00 p.m. PT/ET

• Where: Moda Center, Portland, OR

• TV: NBA League Pass

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