Timberwolves vs. Thunder Prediction and Odds: Western Conference Rivals Rematch

The Minnesota Timberwolves (31-27) and Oklahoma City Thunder (46-10) will face off for the second time in as many days on Monday night.

The Thunder won Sunday’s meeting in Minnesota 130-123. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander led the effort with 37 points, eight rebounds, and eight assists, outshining Anthony Edwards’ 29 points, 10 rebounds, and seven assists.

OKC is a whopping 25-3 in its building and won two of three meetings against the Wolves, with the only loss coming on the road on Feb. 13. Meanwhile, the visitors only won one of their five most recent outings and are 15-13 on the road.

Here, we will preview the matchup and share our favorite Timberwolves vs. Thunder betting picks.

Timberwolves vs. Thunder Betting Odds for Monday, February 24

The Timberwolves are 25-32-1 (43.9 percent) against the spread, 9-5-1 (64.3 percent) ATS as an underdog, and 15-13 (53.6 percent) ATS on the road.

The Thunder are 33-20-4 (62.3 percent) ATS, 32-19-4 (62.8 percent) ATS as a favorite, and 18-8-2 (69.2 percent) ATS at home.

Timberwolves vs. Thunder Prediction

Minnesota Timberwolves Preview

From a pure betting standpoint, it’s notable that the Wolves have the sixth-worst spread record in the NBA, yet they were profitable as an underdog and on the road.

This entire year has been one of self-discovery by the reigning Western Conference Finals runner-ups. Discovering who will step up alongside Edwards, the ramifications of the Karl-Anthony Towns trade, and their most optimal style to contend for a championship.

The Wolves have one of the best defenses in the league for the second year running, but unlike their 2023-24 campaign, they are sixth in rating as opposed to first. They’re also 12th in offensive rating with a +3.0 net rating (eighth).

The key to overcoming Minnesota’s lack of on-ball playmaking last year was its three-point efficiency. That formula remained largely the same, with the Wolves ranking fourth in three-point percentage (37.6). 

That said, the Thunder will be able to hone in on their main target, Edwards, on Monday. Rudy Gobert, Julius Randle, Donte DiVincenzo, and Jaylen Clark are all expected (but not confirmed) to miss the game through injury.

Without those important players on the floor, OKC will be allowed to copy the blueprint of many other teams who have played the Wolves. Defense often have multiple defenders sag off of their individual assignment to show help in the lane, limiting Edwards’ ability to drive the ball and forcing him to take a career-high in three-point attempts per game (10.3).

Despite Minnesota barely being above .500, it has the fifth-best point differential per 100 possessions against teams with top-10 net ratings. It also had the fifth-best average performance against the spread against these opponents, besting the spread by an average of 2.4 points.

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Oklahoma City Thunder Preview

The Thunder were close to unstoppable even when they weren’t at full strength. With Chet Holmgren back in the lineup, they're flat-out terrifying. 

OKC’s league-best defensive rating (104.8) is 3.5 points clear of the second-ranked Orlando Magic. They’re also fifth in offensive rating, scoring just 1.2 points per 100 possessions fewer than the high-powered New York Knicks, again, while playing the clear-cut best defense in the sport.

With Holmgren and Isaiah Hartenstein both back in the lineup, the Thunder are up to sixth in rebound rate over their last 10 games. That’s a marked improvement from where they were a year ago, which was all the way down at 28th.

To make matters worse for their opponents, they vaulted to first in the league in three-point percentage (40 percent) over their last 10 games. That’s not to mention they also lead the league in points off turnovers per game and free-throw percentage (82.3). 

OKC’s extreme intensity on the perimeter sucks the life out of its opponents. However, it’s worth noting that OKC’s offensive rating (115.8) and defensive rating (115.1) were nearly identical across its three matchups with the Timberwolves.

What’s been arguably the most impressive component of the Thunder’s season is their consistency. They play with the same youthful exuberance and passion every night they take the court and show extra pride in front of their fans, which is a major reason why they have the best home record in basketball. 

Despite playing a great game last night, Edwards only averaged 24 points in three contests against OKC. The man to stop is actually Sixth Man of the Year Naz Reid, who averaged 22.7 points, well above his 14.7-point average.

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Timberwolves vs. Thunder Betting Pick

• Timberwolves vs. Thunder pick: Timberwolves +12.5 (-115) at BetMGM

There are many contrasting factors here. The Thunder’s record and advanced metrics are both off the chart, but the Timberwolves flourished as road underdogs and just got a look at OKC last night.

Minnesota is also injured but has played all of the top teams close. The key in this one will be if OKC needs to divert multiple resources to slowing down Edwards’ rack attacks, and if his teammates will capitalize on his gravity and knock down their threes against an aggressive defense.

The Thunder are rightful favorites, but they’re 1-2 ATS against the Wolves and have to cover a massive line against a team that has shown up whenever they played. We’d take the Timberwolves with the points here.

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How to Watch Timberwolves vs. Thunder on 2/24/25

• When: Monday, February 24 @ 7:00/8:00 p.m. CT/ET

• Where: Paycom Center, Oklahoma City, OK

• TV: NBA TV

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