Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Prediction: The Battle for the One Seed

The Minnesota Timberwolves (55-24) are going on the road to face the Denver Nuggets (55-24)  on Wednesday evening in what is essentially a game to decide the fate of the one seed in the Western Conference. 

Anthony Edwards scored a career-high 51 points last night as the T’Wolves improved to 8-2 over their last 10 games and kept their dreams of home-court advantage throughout the playoffs alive. They’re now 12-5 since Karl-Anthony Towns’ injury and also have the joint-best road record in the West (26-14).

The Nuggets cruised past the Utah Jazz last night and are 7-3 over their last 10. However, they’re only 1-2 against the Wolves and fell to them at home on March 29, though Jamal Murray did not play in that game.

Here, we will go over the betting odds and share our favorite pick for the Timberwolves vs. Nuggets matchup.

Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Betting Odds for Wednesday, April 10

The Timberwolves are 40-37-2 (52 percent) against the spread and 8-8 (50 percent) ATS as a road underdog. They covered in four of their last five and in all three meetings with Denver.

The Nuggets are 36-41-2 (46.8 percent) ATS and 19-19-1 (50 percent) ATS as a home favorite. They covered in back-to-back games but are an even 5-5 ATS over their last 10.

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Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Prediction

Minnesota Timberwolves Preview

The Timberwolves were at or near the top of the conference standings for the majority of the season, yet they aren’t feared as much as the Nuggets, Dallas Mavericks, Los Angeles Lakers, or several other teams heading into the postseason. Why is that?

If there’s a reason for heistance with Minnesota, it’s on account of their offense. They rank 16th in efficiency and score 114.7 points per 100 possessions, 7.5 points off the Boston Celtics’ league high. They also rank in the bottom 10 in turnover frequency and assist-to-turnover ratio.

That said, the Wolves can keep pace with high-scoring teams because they’re so effective at shooting the three (38.8 percent - tied for first). 

Minnesota’s defense (first in points allowed per 100 possessions) also gives it a unique ability to match up with Denver in a way basically no other team can, which is what makes them so dangerous.

With Towns back in the lineup, the Wolves can deploy him on Nikola Jokic, leave Rudy Gobert as a roamer in the restricted area, and have the length of Jaden McDaniels to contest perimeter shots or chase Murray around screens. Not to mention the one-on-one defense of Edwards or the contributions of Mike Conley, Nickeil Alexander-Walker, and others.

As it pertains to Wednesday night’s matchup, Naz Reid is going to have to have a great defensive night now that he’s starting in place of the injured Towns. He played in two of three meetings against Denver and was +4 and +14 in those meetings.

Denver Nuggets Preview

As we’ve pointed out in several Nuggets game previews, this team is the same offensive force it was when it won the NBA Finals last year but with an improved defense. That right there makes them the championship favorites, no matter what Boston’s regular-season record looks like.

Denver ranks seventh in offensive rating and eighth in defensive rating and has the fourth-best net rating (+5.4) in basketball. That number jumps to +10 in their home arena, where they are 32-8 straight-up (Minnesota is +4.6 on the road).

The theme of the Denver team is execution. Players know where to be and when to be there, and Jokic and Murray know how to use their skills to put themselves and their team in the best situation possible.

While the Nuggets don’t take a ton of threes, they hold opponents to 35.4 percent shooting from deep, the seventh-best mark in basketball. They also have the fifth-best rebound rate, which could be an issue for a Wolves squad that has struggled on the boards since Towns exited the lineup.

Jokic averaged 31.3 points, 15 rebounds, and 8.5 through four games in April, while Murray averaged 22 points and 5.0 assists on 54.8 percent shooting in two games since returning from an injury. He is instrumental to his team’s success as they’re a modest 13-10 without him in the lineup.

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Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Betting Pick

This is a do-or-die situation for both teams. That would normally favor the Nuggets because of their championship experience, but the Wolves have been tremendous on the road all year, and their leader scored a career-high less than 24 hours ago.

As funny as it sounds, Reid’s ability to hold up on Jokic (assuming Gobert fills the spot of the rover) could play a huge role in determining the final score of this game. The rest of the Wolves match up well with Denver and have played them tough all year.

There’s no guarantee that the underdogs pull out the win, but their confidence and personnel should be enough for them to secure a cover against their rivals.

• Timberwolves vs. Nuggets pick: Timberwolves (+5.5) at BetMGM Sportsbook

How to Watch Timberwolves vs. Nuggets

• When: Wednesday, April 10 @ 8:00/10:00 p.m. CT/ET

• Where: Ball Arena, Denver, CO

• TV: ESPN

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