Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Prediction and Odds: A Modern Rivalry Renewed

The Minnesota Timberwolves (43-32) will take on the Denver Nuggets (47-28) in a Western Conference battle and rematch of the 2023-24 conference semifinals on Tuesday night.

The Wolves pulled a dramatic second-half comeback in Game 7 against the Nuggets to shockingly send the then-defending champs packing. They’re also 3-0 against Denver with their last win coming on March 12, 115-95.

The Nuggets enter Tuesday having won three of their last four games and gone 25-12 in their arena. They’re third in the Western Conference and are both trying to chase down the Houston Rockets while holding off the Los Angeles Lakers.

Here, I will break down the matchup and share my best Timberwolves vs. Nuggets betting picks for Tuesday.

For more betting insights, check out our NBA Player Props and Best Bets.

Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Betting Odds for Tuesday, April 1

The Timberwolves are 35-39-1 (47.3 percent) against the spread, 19-17 (52.8 percent) ATS on the road, and 11-6-1 (64.7 percent) ATS as an underdog.

The Nuggets are 35-39-1 (47.3 percent) ATS, exactly the same as the Wolves, 17-19-1 (47.2 percent) ATS at home, and 24-30-1 (44.4 percent) ATS as a favorite.

Odds from BetMGM Sportsbook. Use our BetMGM promo code WSNSPORTS to get up to $1,500 in bonus bets.

Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Prediction

Minnesota Timberwolves Preview

The Timberwolves are putting it together. After a .500-ish first half of the year, they won 11 of their last 14 games and 16 of their last 19 with Julius Randle on the floor.

The Wolves have been a solid defensive team all year, but they now look more connected with their rotations against elite offenses and have more multiplicity on offense. 

The biggest difference now is that they no longer live and die by the Anthony Edwards drives to free space for his teammates or his threes if teams close down driving lanes. Edwards has become more comfortable at feeling the timing of his passes, and Randle’s scoring prowess combined with the lob threat of Rudy Gobert has created more looks for a team that has no shortage of floor-spacing role players.

The Wolves ranked third in offensive and fifth in defensive rating for a +11 net rating (third) over the last month of action. Although that level of offensive output is likely unsustainable, anything inside the top 5 with their consistent defense will make them an elite ball club. 

That said, Minnesota is still ninth in offensive and fifth in defensive rating for the year with a +4.5 net rating (sixth). They also had the fourth-best net rating (+2.1) outside of garbage time against teams with top-10 point differentials.

All of that makes it hard to figure out why the Wolves find themselves seventh in the Western Conference standings. The answer likely falls in their clutch net rating, where they are only 24th and were outscored by nine points per 100 possessions. They fell to 25th in offensive and 17th in defensive in those situations, defined as when there are five or fewer minutes remaining and the game is within five points either way. 

The Wolves’ wins against the Nuggets came by three, 29, and 20 points. Edwards and Randle combined for 54 points in their last meeting, while the team made 17 threes and shot 42.5 percent from deep.

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Denver Nuggets Preview

The Nuggets are out to prove that their glory years didn’t end when general manager Tim Connelly left them for, ironically, the Timberwolves.

The jury is…undecided on that matter. The team is third in a loaded Western Conference, but it is 12th with a -5.4 net rating against top-10 point differential opponents and is totally reliant on Nikola Jokic to perform.

To back that up, the Nuggets’ +4.1 net rating is eighth in the league. Excluding garbage time, they were an absurd +20.8 points per 100 possessions (the best in the league) better with Jokic on the court than they were without him.

As an aside, Christian Braun ranked in the 96th percentile for shooting guards and was second on the team. Go Christian.

The Nuggets are third in offensive and 20th in defensive rating. Those numbers fell to 10th in offensive and 23rd in defensive rating over the last month of action, giving them a 9-7 record and -0.1 net rating (17th).

As in any great rivalry, the teams are diametrically opposed in the clutch. Denver is second in clutch net rating with a defensive rating equivalent to the Timberwolves’ season average and an absurd 130.0 offensive rating, leaps and bounds above the highest average recorded for a season. 

Can’t figure out why? Look no further than Jokic, whose supercomputer of a brain calculates the most efficient way to get a bucket every time his team needs it and has its back against a wall.

All that said, Denver is in for a tough challenge. Their home standard has slipped, and they’re ninth in home net rating (+6.2), while Minnesota is seventh in road net rating (+2.6).

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Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Betting Pick

• Timberwolves vs. Nuggets pick: Nuggets -3.5 (-110) at BetMGM

There are tons of reasons to look at the Timberwolves as the better team overall and, specifically, in this matchup. Their advanced metrics and recent dominance over their rival is indicative of that.

That said, the Nuggets routinely win games they shouldn’t like these. Their road win last year against the Boston Celtics springs to mind, as does their most recent win against the Oklahoma City Thunder, who’d just blown them out the day before, 140-127.

I ultimately believe the Nuggets will cover this line and hold the Timberwolves in the play-in. However, that could prove to be to their detriment if they climb up to the second seed and have to face the Wolves in the first round of the playoffs. 

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How to Watch Timberwolves vs. Nuggets on 4/1/25

• When: Tuesday, April 1 @ 8:00/10:00 p.m. PT/ET

• Where: Ball Arena, Denver, CO

• TV: TNT/truTV/Max