Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Game Five Prediction: Will the Home Loss Streak End?

The Minnesota Timberwolves and Denver Nuggets are back at Mile High for Game Five of the Western Conference Semifinals on Tuesday night with the series tied 2-2.

The Timberwolves shocked the world with two straight road wins to open the series, only to punt on their advantage and lose Games Three and Four at home. Anthony Edwards dazzled in the Game Four loss, posting 44 points, five rebounds, and five assists.

The Nuggets started the series flat but eventually figured out how to impose themselves physically, which was a strength of the Timberwolves. They were 33-8 at home during the regular season but still lost Games One and Two in their building.

Here, we will go over the betting odds and share our favorite pick for Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Game Five on Tuesday.

Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Game Five Betting Odds for Tuesday, May 14

The Timberwolves are 46-42-2 (52.3 percent) against the spread and 12-9 (57.1 percent) ATS as a road underdog. They covered in Games One and Two, both times as a road underdog, before they failed to cover in Games Three and Four.

The Nuggets are 42-47-2 (47.2 percent) ATS and 21-23-1 (47.7 percent) ATS as a home favorite. They’re 4-5 ATS in the playoffs but have all of the momentum in the series.

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Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Game Five Prediction

Minnesota Timberwolves Preview

The Wolves made their mark in the regular season with their league-leading defense and surprising consistency both at home and on the road.

While they have been excellent on defense for most of the postseason (particularly in Game Two), it’s their offense that’s been the biggest story. They rank third in offensive efficiency in the playoffs, five spots ahead of the Nuggets.

The offensive surge comes in spite of them falling in three-point percentage from 38.7 percent in the regular season to 36.9 percent in the playoffs.

Edwards proved with his performances over the last few weeks that he is no longer a future star, he is a bonafide superstar of today. He averaged 33.3 points, five rebounds, and five assists on 61/44/81 shooting splits in the series and was the best player on the court in at least two of four games.

As important as this series is for Edwards’ young and building legacy, it’s a bigger deal for the Wolves’ frontcourt. 

Rudy Gobert missed Game Two due to the birth of his son—coincidentally, that was the best the Wolves looked at any point over the past two seasons as they dominated Denver on the road in a 106-80 victory. They haven’t won a game since he returned to the lineup, and the four-time Defensive Player of the Year looks totally clueless trying to guard Nikola Jokic.

Karl-Anthony Towns, meanwhile, was atrocious in Game Four after a very impressive run. He managed 13 points and 12 rebounds on 5-18 shooting and also did not provide much defensive resistance.

Bet on Minnesota Timberwolves at BetMGM

Denver Nuggets Preview

There’s no other way to say it, the Nuggets are in firm control of the series despite it being level at two games apiece.

Their ability to recover from an 0-2 hole with two straight road wins is a testament to their championship experience and resolve. However, there’s reason to believe they were somewhat lucky that they were able to come back.

Jamal Murray controversially avoided a suspension for throwing items onto the court during play and while sitting on the bench during Game Two. He was also allowed to rest from Monday to Friday between Games Two and Three, which gave him time to nurse a calf injury that slowed him down in the first round.

While Murray was influential in Game Three, he once again regressed with only one day of rest before Game Four. He’s a player to watch in Game Five, specifically to see how he and his calf hold up with only one day of rest again.

The most interesting development of the series thus far is that the Nuggets found the most success when playing Minnesota’s game and going directly at them with physicality. That, combined with more aggressiveness from Jokic and efficient play from Aaron Gordon (27 points, seven rebounds, six assists in Game Four) headline the list of reasons why they stopped the red-hot Wolves in their tracks.

Denver had a net rating of +10.1 at home during the regular season but was at -18 in Games One and Two. It’s tough to predict which side of these is more likely to reveal itself in Game Five.

Bet on Denver Nuggets at BetMGM

Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Game Five Betting Pick

This series feels like it’s going seven games. Teams will switch between having momentum whenever that happens, which is exactly what’s happening here with Denver.

The fact the Timberwolves weren’t blown out of Game Four was a testament to their relentlessness (particularly Edwards’). They are a young, hungry group that won’t back down from the reigning champions, who have proven that they can be there for the taking.

We believe there’s a real chance Denver wins its third straight game but aren’t willing to lay the points with them. The Wolves will approach this game with a certain level of desperation, plus they already won in Denver twice, and we expect them to be right there.

• Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Game Five pick: Timberwolves +4.5 (-115) at BetMGM

How to Watch Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Game Five

• When: Tuesday, May 14 @ 8:30/10:30 p.m. MT/ET

• Where: Ball Arena, Denver, CO

• TV: TNT

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