Timberwolves vs. Mavericks Game Four Prediction: Mavs Look to Complete the Sweep

The Dallas Mavericks are one win away from advancing to the NBA Finals as they prepare to host the Minnesota Timberwolves in Game Four of the Western Conference Finals on Tuesday.

The Timberwolves came back from 3-2 down and won three of four games on the road against the Denver Nuggets in the last round, but they’re now facing a challenge that no team in NBA history has ever accomplished: to come back from 0-3. The Boston Celtics came close last year when they forced a Game Seven after trailing 0-3, but they ultimately fell at the final hurdle.

The Mavericks came a long way from missing the playoffs a year ago to their current situation, vindicating the trade for Kyrie Irving and showing the importance of their deadline moves. Even if they don’t win Game Four, it’s hard not to envision them taking on Boston in the Finals.

Here, we will go over the betting odds and share our favorite pick for Timberwolves vs. Mavericks Game Four on Tuesday.

Timberwolves vs. Mavericks Game Four Betting Odds for Tuesday, May 28

The Timberwolves are 48-46-2 (51.1 percent) against the spread and 13-11 (54.2 percent) ATS as a road underdog. They’re 8-6 (57.1 percent) ATS in the playoffs but are yet to cover in this series.

The Mavericks are 58-39 (59.8 percent) ATS, the second-best mark in the entire league. They’re also 19-16 (54.3 percent) ATS as a home favorite and 10-5 (66.7  percent) ATS in the playoffs.

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Timberwolves vs. Mavericks Game Four Prediction

Minnesota Timberwolves Preview

The Timberwolves are finding out the hard way what their team looks like when their elite defense just can’t find a way to influence games.

The Wolves threw every defensive coverage in the book at Luka Doncic in this series to no avail. Their personnel, which includes one of the game’s best defenders in Jaden McDaniels, also has not been able to slow down Doncic or Kyrie Irving in isolation, particularly at the end of games.

The Mavs’ net rating in the clutch in this series is a staggering +39.2, meaning they outscored the Timberwolves by 39.2 points per 100 possessions in situations in which there were less than five minutes remaining and the score was within five points.

As much as Dallas has gone out and won these games, Minnesota has also lost them. Their offensive rating fell to 114.3 after an electric start to the playoffs, whereas their defensive rating skyrocketed to the highest it’s been all year.

The Wolves also lost the overall rebounding battle to the Mavs despite their double-big lineup, were bad at the free-throw line (73.1 percent), and were let down by their three best players.

Anthony Edwards had his best game of the series in Game Three with 26 points, nine rebounds, and nine assists, but only scored four points in the fourth quarter and never seemed to have a large influence on the proceedings. Karl-Anthony Towns averaged just 15 points on a horrific 13.6 percent three-point shooting for the series, while Rudy Gobert averaged 12.3 points and 7.7 rebounds and has been a net-negative on defense.

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Dallas Mavericks Preview

The Mavericks’ biggest luxury—and the reason they are up 3-0—is that they have the two best closers in basketball on the same team. 

The playmaking, shotmaking, and individual brilliance of Doncic and Irving are proving to be too much for even the best defense in the league, and one that just made the defending champions look silly in a few of their games.

Dallas’ complementary pieces are also perfectly bought into their roles and execute their jobs at a high level. Derrick Jones Jr. and P.J. Washington guard multiple positions, make timely shots, and crash the glass, while the never-ending rotation of Daniel Gafford and Dereck Lively II has given Dallas a vertical presence, rim protection, rebounding, and intelligent team defense.

The concern for Dallas is that it has no guard or wing depth off the bench, but that isn’t a problem as long as Doncic and Irving aren’t both off of their game.

The Mavs were better at home during the regular season and are still playing their best ball in their building in the playoffs. They haven’t been to the Finals since they won it all in 2011 but have a great shot to secure the closeout victory on Tuesday.

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Timberwolves vs. Mavericks Game Four Betting Pick

There’s no doubt that the Mavericks have been the better team up to this point, but the Timberwolves have been there in every game and only have an average margin of defeat of 4.3 points. That’s despite Edwards, Towns, and Gobert all playing well below their usual standard.

The Mavs were always going to be a tough out because of their excellence down the stretch, but they’re certainly beatable. They dropped two games to both the Los Angeles Clippers and Oklahoma City Thunder and would be within their rights to let their guard down with a three-game lead.

We like the Timberwolves to extend this series with a win and cover, forcing a Game Five back in Minnesota. Keep an eye on Naz Reid, who could play 30-plus minutes if Towns or Gobert struggle again.

• Timberwolves vs. Mavericks Game Four pick: Timberwolves +1.5 (-110) at BetMGM

Timberwolves vs. Mavericks Game Four

• When: Tuesday, May 28 @ 7:30/8:30 p.m. CT/ET

• Where: American Airlines Center, Dallas, TX

• TV: TNT

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