The Oklahoma City Thunder (16-5) are headed on the road to face the Toronto Raptors (7-15) on Thursday night.
The Thunder are first in the Western Conference despite losing their second-best player, Chet Holmgren, to a long-term injury. On the other side, the Raptors won three of their last four and are 6-4 at home despit ethier abhorrent road record.
Here, we will break down the odds and share our best betting picks for the Thunder vs. Raptors NBA matchup on Thursday.
The Thunder are 12-9 (57.1 percent) against the spread, 6-4 (60 percent) ATS on the road, and 11-9 (55 percent) ATS as a favorite.
The Raptors are 15-7 (68.2) ATS, the second-best mark in the league. They’re also 8-2 (80 percent) ATS at home and 15-7 (68.2 percent) ATS as an underdog.
The following odds for the Thunder vs. Raptors game are courtesy of BetMGM Sportsbook. Place your bets at BetMGM and claim up to $1,500 in bonus bets* with our promo code WSNSPORTS.
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Teams | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
---|---|---|---|
Oklahoma City Thunder | -9.5 (-105) | -450 | Over 226.5 (-115) |
Toronto Raptors | +9.5 (-115) | +340 | Under 226.5 (-105) |
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Mark Daigneault is working on a masterclass for the Thunder. Finding an ability to originally survive having no healthy centers and now dropping a first-year member of the team, Isaiah Hartenstein, in place of Holmgren, a potential All-Star and All-NBA defensive member, without suffering any ill effects is a testament to his leadership and coaching acumen.
The Thunder make their bread on the defensive side of the court. They allowed a league-best 103.6 points per 100 possessions and are 10th in offensive efficiency, making them one of four teams to rank in the top 10 of both categories (joining the Boston Celtics, Memphis Grizzlies, and Golden State Warriors.
OKC also posted the second-best point differential per 100 possessions at +10.1, just a hair off the +10.2 maintained by the Celtics.
What’s terrifying about these metrics is that they can be even better. OKC turns the ball over at the lowest frequency in the league and is second in assist-to-turnover ratio, which means their offense will inevitably improve once their three-point shooting improves from 34.5 percent (19th).
Luckily, they hold opponents to 33.9 percent shooting from deep, the second-lowest mark in the league.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is having another terrific season, averaging 29.8 points, 6.5 assists, and 5.5 rebounds on 50.7 percent shooting. Hartenstein (13.3 points, 12.3 rebounds) has also been great, while Jalen Williams (21.8 points, 6.0 rebounds, 5.2 assists) is continuing his improvement.
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The Raptors aren’t ready to compete for a championship, or an Eastern Conference title, or a regular playoff spot…. But they’ve shown signs to suggest they will be a player in the conference in years to come.
Toronto’s record against the spread shows that they’ve been proficient at exceeding expectations. They’re only 19th in offensive and 23rd in defensive rating for the year, but they hit 14th and 11th over the last 10 games.
The Canadians are also the second-best team in the league in rebounding based on their rebound rate. Comparatively, OKC is just 28th and lacks interior size.
The Raptors turn the ball over at the sixth-highest rate but also create clean looks on offense, which is why that’s mirrored by their ranking sixth in assist percentage.
Gradey Dick (18.1 points, 3.1 rebounds) is questionable with a calf injury. His availability will be important in determining where the closing line settles, along with the Raptors’ chances of covering the spread.
RJ Barrett (23.9 points, 6.5 rebounds, 6.2 assists) and Scottie Barnes (22 points, 8.5 rebounds, 7.2 assists) have both flourished in being allowed to impact the game in every aspect. Jakob Poeltl (16 points, 11.8 rebounds) is also having the most impactful year of his career and should play a huge role against a team that does not have much size.
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Thunder vs. Raptors pick: Raptors +9.5 (-115) at BetMGM
The Raptors are, in many ways, trying to become what the Thunder are. Not in how they play or how they stack up with the rest of the league, but in that they have taken a collection of young, talented players, many of whom are homegrown, and are trying to form an identity with a high-ceiling group.
OKC’s tight defense is going to cause issues for the turnover-prone Raptors, but Toronto is a winning team on its home floor and enters the matchup with some real momentum.
The Thunder won five of their last six, but this is a spot where the Raptors’ top guys are playing well, and they have a nice shot of covering a large spread at home.
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When: Thursday, Dec. 5 at 7:30 ET
Where: Scotiabank Arena, Toronto, Ontario, Canada
TV: NBA League Pass
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