The Suns’ advantage entering the season was that they’d have three all-world scorers on the court at one time. Even though Beal missed most of the season up to this point, Kevin Durant and Devin Booker proved how devastating they can be as a two-man tandem on their own.
That offensive advantage came grinding to a halt recently. They’re only 26th in offensive rating over their last 10 games, despite the Durant-Booker pairing averaging 56.7 combined points during that span.
The Suns went cold from three in their recent outings. Once a top-five team in three-point percentage, they’re down to 15th (37.2%). They’re also 24th in made threes per game but cover for themselves at the free-throw line (second in makes, 22 per game).
This is the first game Nurkic will miss in his Suns career. Drew Eubanks and Chimezie Metu could see a bump in minutes, and either Keita Bates-Diop or Yuta Watanabe could join the rotation as the team goes small.
A situation to monitor is how the Suns cope with the glass. They’re sixth in rebound rate but are missing their leading board-man, Nurkic, who would usually guard All-Star Domantas Sabonis (18.7 points, 12.2 rebounds, 7.2 assists).
On the other side of the matchup is the Kings. Fresh off a third-place regular-season finish in the Western Conference last year, they've won 14-6 over their last 20 games and won four of their last five home games, only falling to the league-leading Boston Celtics.
Sacramento’s early-season commitment to the defensive end slipped as they regained their offensive flow. They’re ninth in pace of play and also secure the highest of defensive rebounds in the league, which allows them to continually push the tempo (unlike the Suns, who are 25th), exploit mismatches, and catch defenses before they’re set.
De’Aaron Fox is playing some of the best basketball of his career and will need to be ready to go toe-to-toe with Booker and Durant, both of whom could easily score 30 points against this defense. Fox averaged 29.1 points and 6.8 assists on 46% three-point shooting to start the month and put up 34 points and seven assists in the win against Phoenix a couple of weeks ago.
Interestingly, despite the Kings being 10-4 at home, they have a net rating of -2 in their building. On the flip side, the Suns have a net rating of 1.3 on the road.
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Suns vs. Kings Betting Pick
This feels like it’s going to be a great game for player props. The lack of resistance on the interior should set Sabonis up for a strong statistical night, and the lack of their third and fourth scorers should give Booker and Durant even more of a green light to create their own shots and shoot at will.
The Kings were impressive in several recent games, most notably a 128-123 win against the Oklahoma City Thunder. They also beat the Suns, Denver Nuggets, and Minnesota Timberwolves shortly before that.
Phoenix is going to need both Booker and Durant to be at their absolute best to have a shot in this one. But even if they are, their impending regression on the boards, lack of commitment to defense, and poor execution down the stretch of close games are enough for us to back the better team at home.
How to Watch Suns vs. Kings on 12/22/23
When: Friday, Dec. 22 @ 7:00/10:00 p.m. PT/ET
Where: Golden 1 Center, Sacramento, CA
TV: NBA League Pass
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