Spurs vs. Mavericks Prediction: Wemby, Luka Clash in In-State Showdown

Victor Wembanyama will lead the San Antonio Spurs (11-43) four hours north for an in-state matchup with Luka Doncic and the Dalla Mavericks (31-23) on Wednesday night.

Dallas walked away with wins in both of these teams’ previous matchups (by seven and 25 points). They also won five straight games, including two since they traded for P.J. Washington and Daniel Gafford.

San Antonio curtailed a seven-game losing streak with a 23-point win against the Toronto Raptors during which Victor Wembanyama posted a triple-double with 27 points, 14 rebounds, and 10 blocks. Although they still aren’t winning many games, they look better on both ends and are a more competitive team overall.

Here, we will go over the betting odds and share our favorite pick for the Spurs vs. Mavericks matchup on Wednesday.

Spurs vs. Mavericks Betting Odds for Wednesday, Feb. 14

The Mavericks are favored by 12 points against their in-state rivals. They covered in four of their last five games but are also just 5-8 (38.5%) against the spread in their last 13 outings and 7-10 (41.2%) as a home favorite.

The Spurs covered twice in their last eight games but had a hot streak just before that and are 12-15 (44.4%) ATS as a road underdog. 

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The Spurs were playing like a middle-of-the-road team for a few weeks but recently fell back toward the bottom of the league. Still, their average point differential per 100 possessions over the last 10 games (-4.3), during which they are 3-7, is much better than it is for the season (-8.3).

Despite the increase in overall competitiveness, their offensive efficiency has regressed. However, they allowed the eighth-fewest points per 100 possessions over the last 10 games, largely due to the excellence of Victor Wembanyama (22nd in defensive box plus/minus).

The Spurs’ offensive slump can be attributed to their dreadful three-point shooting. They rank 29th in percentage from beyond the arc over the last 10 games (32.6%), which is even worse than their league-low mark of 34.1% for the year. That’s despite the team generating the ninth-greatest frequency of “wide-open” threes (nearest defender 6+ feet away) per attempt.

San Antonio leads the league in assist percentage but also has the worst turnover percentage during that same stretch of play. That can be attributed to the frenetic pace of play they typically use and their lack of secure ball-handlers on the roster.

Although the Spurs are roughly 3.7 points per 100 possessions better at home than they are on the road, some of their best offense in recent weeks came on the road. That includes the Toronto win, along with 131 points against the Washington Wizards, 123 against the Philadelphia 76ers, and 111 against the Orlando Magic and their excellent defense.

The Mavs have been up and down throughout the season. Kyrie Irving and Dereck Lively II missed time, their defense ebbed and flowed, and their three-point shooting came and went.

Dallas’ recent stretch of play provided yet another reminder of how lethal it can be at full health (though Lively is questionable), and the additions of Washington and Gafford make this team a near-perfect match for the talents of Irving and Doncic. 

It’s tough to apply advanced metrics over the last month or so to the current team because of the injuries and roster changes, but it also isn’t fair to look at a five-game sample size as evidence of the Mavs’ level of capability. So let’s break it down even further.

Gafford and Washington’s additions give the Dallas guards pick-and-roll partners that are capable of diving to the rim or operating out of the short roll. Washington is also adept at popping out for threes or can handle the rock himself as a third option.

Playing against his former team, the Washington Wizards, Gafford racked up 16 points, 17 rebounds, and five blocks in 24 minutes on Monday. Washington hasn’t set the world on fire but has been a great help-side interior defender with length and helped the team secure a ridiculous defensive rating of 100 in his two games in blue and white.

Doncic is averaging a near-32-point triple-double to start February, while Irving is at 25.2 points and 6.2 assists on 42.4% shooting from three. The team also has the second-best clutch rating in the league and is 17-6 straight-up in these situations.

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Spurs vs. Mavericks Prediction and Betting Pick

San Antonio made drastic improvements defensively and is much more of a legitimate threat than it was before. However, Dallas is playing outstanding basketball and still has more time left in its honeymoon period with Washington and Gafford.

The Spurs give up the fourth-most points per isolation possession, while Dallas scores the third-most points per isolation possession and calls isos at the second-greatest frequency. That could be a key difference between these two.

While we’re more optimistic about the Spurs than most at this stage of the season, we like the Mavericks to cover the line in a dominant win.

• Spurs vs. Mavericks pick: Mavericks -10.5 at BetMGM

How to Watch Spurs vs. Mavericks

• When: Wednesday, Feb. 14, 7:30/8:30 p.m. CT/ET

• Where: American Airlines Center, Dallas, TX

• TV: NBA League Pass

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