Spurs vs. Celtics Prediction and Odds: Wemby Meets Tatum

The San Antonio Spurs (23-28) will face the Boston Celtics (38-16) in TD Garden in a matchup between the future of the league and the defending champions.

The Spurs are 2-3 on their East Coast road trip and only 9-15 on the road overall. Victor Wembanyama seems to perk up for nationally televised matchups or games against other stars, and he’s got both sources of motivation coming his way on Wednesday.

The Celtics won six of their last seven games, yet they’re only 16-10 at home compared to 22-6 on the road. They beat the Miami Heat and New York Knicks by an average of 23.5 points in their last two games and are back to playing their excellent brand of basketball after a brief lull.

Here, we will preview the matchup and share our best Spurs vs. Celtics betting picks for Wednesday.

Spurs vs. Celtics Betting Odds for Wednesday, February 12

The Spurs are 24-27 (47.1 percent) against the spread, 12-13 (48 percent) ATS on the road, and 16-17 (48.5 percent) ATS as an underdog.

The Celtics are 22-31-1 (40.4 percent) ATS, 9-17 (34.6 percent) ATS at home, and 21-29-1 (42 percent) ATS as a favorite.

Odds for the Spurs vs. Celtics game are courtesy of BetMGM Sportsbook. Head over to BetMGM to place your bets and Get Up to $1,500 in Bonus Bets*.

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Spurs vs. Celtics Prediction

San Antonio Spurs Preview

The Spurs struck gold when they landed the first overall pick and the rights to Victor Wembanyama two years ago. They landed him the running mate he desperately needed, De'Aaron Fox, just before the trade deadline, setting themselves up for long-term success.

The piece missing from that puzzle, however, is short-term success. The Spurs have gone from being totally bereft of talent to having a logjam at guard and having too many rotation-level players whose skill sets don’t complement one another.

For example, Fox, Chris Paul, Devin Vassell, and Stephon Castle do not fit together. Paul needs the ball and to set the table for his teammates; Fox works best in space when he can use his speed to get to the rim or kick the ball to his teammates; Vassell likes to create off the dribble; and Castle occupies very similar positions to Fox, only he’s terrible shooting from three (1.1 made threes per game, 28.8 three-point percentage).

Still, this is a good problem to have for a team that is rebuilding. 

Checking in on the Spurs’ recent performances, they posted the seventh-worst net rating since 2025 with garbage time filtered out of the results. They were 18th in offensive and an abysmal 29th in defensive rating during that time, leading to them going 6-12 in the new year.

Those marks aren’t totally dissimilar to their season averages, which are 16th in offensive, 21st in defensive, and 21st in net rating (-2.2).

They also disappointed in turnover frequency (16th) and rebound rate (19th), two areas they should theoretically be further ahead in given the presence of Paul and Wembanyama, respectively.

All that said and as we mentioned before, this team has shown up in big games. They beat the Milwaukee Bucks, Indiana Pacers, Los Angeles Lakers, and Denver Nuggets all since the turn of the year.

They are yet to face the Celtics.

Boston Celtics Preview

Boston’s robotic-like execution and efficiency have to be frustrating to deal with as an opponent. They don’t do anything unexpected, they just take what the defense gives them, take threes with the slightest encouragement, attack the lane, and exploit mismatches.

Defensively, they have the length and speed to both nearly anyone they face. Want an example? They’re probably the only team in the league who has a direct like-for-like matchup for Wemby who is known for his defensive prowess.

Boston has made it a point to punish bad teams. They posted a net rating of +11.8 against teams with bottom-10 point differentials, placing them eighth in the league in these types of matchups.

Interestingly, their offensive rating of 119.9 against teams with bottom 10 defenses is only just above their season average of 118.8. They also underperformed against the spread by an average of three points per game, again, against bottom-10 defenses.

Celtics fans will be encouraged by their recent uptick from beyond the arc. Not only are they making the most threes per game in NBA history, but they shot 39.1 percent from deep over their last 10 games, while the Spurs are below league average in three-point percentage allowed (35.9).

The Celtics run isolation possessions at the second-highest rate in the league and score the fifth-most points per possession in these types of moments. Their approach to dealing with Wembanyama’s ability to roam will be interesting, and it could be to force switches, back out, and dance one-on-one with whoever is in front of them.

Although Boston’s home record is disappointing relative to its road record, it still produced an average net rating of +8.5 in its building. Meanwhile, the Spurs were outscored by an average of 3.3 points per 100 possessions on the road.

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Spurs vs. Celtics Betting Pick

Spurs vs. Celtics pick: Celtics -8.5 (-105) at BetMGM

Everyone knows who the better team here is. The question is if Boston will continue to underperform against the spread despite its overall success, and if San Antonio can continue to show up in big games.

Wemby is coming off a terrific outing against the Washington Wizards, during which he dropped 31 points and 15 rebounds on 57.1 percent shooting. Boston as a team is also rolling and shooting the ball well, and they will test the Spurs’ defensive principles.

Fox had four completely different games in four appearances for the Spurs. That lack of consistency, along with other factors we discussed, gives us the confidence to take the champs in front of their home fans on Wednesday.

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How to Watch Spurs vs. Celtics on 2/12/25

• When: Wednesday, February 12 @ 7:00 p.m. ET

• Where: TD Garden, Boston, MA

• TV: ESPN

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