Rockets vs. Warriors Prediction and Odds: Curry Carrying GSW to Another Title?

The Houston Rockets (52-30) have a chance to steal a game back in their series against the Golden State Warriors, who lead 2-1, on Monday.

The Rockets blew the series’ first game in the Bay Area despite Jimmy Butler III missing the contest with a glute injury. They were 1-1 on the road during the season series but cannot afford to fall into a 3-1 hole with Butler expected to be back for the rest of the series.

The Warriors shrugged off concerns that they played too many high-leverage games at the end of the regular season and during the Play-In Tournament and find themselves in the driver’s seat in this series. Steph Curry has been spectacular and dropped 36 points on 52.2 percent shooting in his last game and put up at least 30 in five of his last seven.

Here, I will break down the matchup and share my best Rockets vs. Warriors Game 4 betting picks.

For more betting insights, check out our daily NBA Player Props and Best Bets.

Rockets vs. Warriors Betting Odds for Monday, April 28

The Rockets are 44-40-1 (52.4 percent) against the spread, 22-18-1 (55 percent) ATS on the road, and 14-13-1 (51.9 percent) ATS as an underdog.

The Warriors are 43-40-3 (51.8 percent) ATS, 19-23-1 (45.2 percent) ATS at home, and 27-28-3 (49.1 percent) ATS as a favorite.

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Rockets vs. Warriors Prediction

Houston Rockets Preview

The Rockets are in serious trouble. Their offense simply cannot get to the level it needs to win games in this series if Jalen Green can’t score at least 20-25 points per game, which he has proven he can’t.

Reimagining this Rockets team with Devin Booker, Donovan Mitchell, or another elite shot-creating two guard would make them one of the scariest teams in basketball. In their current form, however, they are very limited in what they can do in a playoff context.

All of that is not to say that Houston isn’t still a good team and can’t win on Monday. They posted a 105.0 defensive rating and have been utterly dominant on the boards, just like they were during the regular season. 

Where things take a turn is with their ball security, as their turnover rate is up two percent, and their inability to score in the halfcourt. Golden State adjusted to Alperen Sengun after the first game and held him to 13-33 (39.4 percent) shooting since, while Green had two single-digit scoring games.

Fred VanVleet has also been an unmitigated disaster as a shooter, and the rest of the young players haven’t been able to make a strong impact.

Again, it’s hard for the Rockets’ defense to do much better than it already has. Even the typical “solid” game instead of a masterclass from Curry in Games 1 and 3 could’ve flipped this series on its head.

Houston simply will not win this series if it cannot create more open looks. They’re also down to 10th in second-chance points per game in the playoffs after they led the entire league during the regular season, and they only shot 64.1 percent from the free-throw line. That screams of fatigue and inexperience in big moments.

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Golden State Warriors Preview

All signs are coming up Warriors with Butler expected to return to the lineup on Monday.

The Dubs have the second-best defensive rating in the playoffs (103.6) and have had no issues with slowing down the pace to the playoffs’ typical standard. Perhaps more so than any season in the past, their comfort in the playoffs has shone through with their Play-In win and the way they adjusted and raced ahead this series.

Is this only a one-game series? Yes, of course. But the Warriors look like they could legitimately compete in the Western Conference Finals, and Houston does not.

The questionable usage of Jonathan Kuminga aside, this has been an intelligent series from the Warriors. Their defensive rotations have been on point, their execution in big moments and during ATOs, and the way they’ve gotten Curry the ball despite not having other shooters on the floor worked like a charm in two-thirds of the games.  

Butler’s return gives the Warriors more defensive structure, a primary ball-handler when Curry is on the bench, and a player to apply rim pressure and force the defense to collapse, leaving Curry in single-coverage or uncovered.

If there is a concern to be had ahead of Game 4, assuming Butler is no longer feeling the effects of his injury, it is that the Dubs have been playing hard for well over a month and could be running on fumes. Curry’s brilliance, however, should have revitalized his team and given him a personal spurt of energy in what could go down as his final dominant postseason. 

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Rockets vs. Warriors Betting Pick

• Rockets vs. Warriors pick: Warriors -3.5 (-110) at BetMGM

Curry looks like a man on a mission, the same way LeBron James did in 2018 when he fully embraced the challenge of carrying his team to compete for a championship. More importantly, the Rockets don’t seem to have a player capable of scoring 20 points, much less 30, more than two times in a seven-game series.

Golden State has the advantage on offense and defense and is far more experienced. They also have the two best players and the best coach in the series. 

I believe the Rockets could win another game in this series, but I find it hard to bet against the Warriors with the chance to take a 3-1 lead.

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How to Watch Rockets vs. Warriors on 4/28/25

• When: Monday, April 28 @ 7:00/10:00 p.m. ET/PT

• Where: Chase Center, San Francisco, CA

• TV: TNT/truTV/Max