Rockets vs. Thunder Prediction and Odds: Western Conference Foes Clash

The Houston Rockets (37-23) will face the Oklahoma City Thunder (49-11) in a matchup between projected Western Conference Playoff opponents.

The Rockets are one game behind the fourth-place Memphis Grizzlies, whom they will be desperate to pass in the standings to secure home-court advantage in the first round. Houston is fresh off a 10-point loss against the Sacramento Kings and went 1-2 against the Thunder thus far, most recently losing to them by 15 points on Dec. 14.

The Thunder beat the San Antonio Spurs 146-132 on Sunday night and are 25-4 at home. They haven’t lost to a team not named the Minnesota Timberwolves since Jan. 29 and are already close to locking up the top seed in the Western Conference.

Here, we will preview the odds and share our favorite Rockets vs. Thunder betting picks for Monday.

Also, take a look at our NBA Player Props and Best Bets article for Monday, March 3.

Rockets vs. Thunder Betting Odds for Monday, March 3

The Rockets are 32-27-1 (54.2 percent) against the spread, 11-7-1 (61.1 percent) ATS as an underdog, and 17-11-1 (60.7 percent) ATS on the road.

The Thunder are 35-22-4 (61.4 percent) ATS, 34-21-4 (61.8 percent) ATS as a favorite, and 18-9-2 (66.7 percent) ATS at home.

Rockets vs. Thunder Prediction

Houston Rockets Preview

The Rockets were on fire to start the year and held down the second seed in the West for a number of weeks. It’s easy to forget about them amid the budding storylines throughout the conference, but they’re still only 1.5 games away from reclaiming their spot as the second seed.

Houston is a thorn in the side of good teams and an arduous challenge for bad teams. They play with intense physicality and operate at a slow pace, ensuring games don’t slip away from them in one burst and that they have the chance to wield their aggressiveness against their opponents.

Houston is also outstanding on the glass, leading the league in rebound rate thanks to its combination of height on the interior and athleticism on the wings, namely in the form of Amen Thompson.

Although the team is just about league average in turnover percentage, it is fifth in points allowed off turnovers and 12th in points off turnovers per game. It is also first in second-chance points and third in fastbreak points per game.

These are some of the ways the Rockets create margins within the game to ensure their success. That’s much-needed considering they have one of the least-efficient halfcourt offenses in the sport.

The Rockets were outscored by 10.3 points per 100 possessions across their three matchups with the Thunder. Their 106.6 offensive and 116.9 defensive ratings were both well off their season marks of 113.4 (15th) and 109.4 (fourth), respectively. 

Without Fred VanVleet available, Jalen Green and Thompson stand out as players who need to have a good game. Green is Houston’s best volume scorer when he is on his game and scored at least 24 points in four of his last five games, although he averaged just 11.7 points across the three meetings with OKC.

Thompson, meanwhile, had two great scoring months and scored 19 on 60 percent shooting the last time he faced the Thunder. His athleticism makes him a matchup issue for a historically smaller Thunder team, although they have more options for rim protection now that Chet Holmgren is back and paired up with Isaiah Hartenstein.

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Oklahoma City Thunder Preview

Want to know how dominant the Thunder have been? Look at the spread for a game against a team that is 14 games above .500.

OKC can beat teams in a variety of ways. Their preferred method is to lure them into their defensive traps, whether that be hunting one-on-one matchups or trying to overwhelm them with pace, both of which come with extreme pitfalls.

The Thunder lead the league in points off turnovers scored and allowed per game. They also allowed the fewest points per 100 possessions and rank fifth in offensive efficiency, which has been spurred on by their strong three-point shooting as of late (third over their last 15 games - 38.4 percent). 

One of the most impressive aspects of the Thunder’s dominance is that it has not changed regardless of the caliber of the opponent. They went 12-5 with a +11.6 net rating excluding garbage time against teams with top-10 point differentials.

Notably, Houston was fourth in this category with a +1.1 rating and a 13-9 record.

To add to everything we’ve said, the Thunder have an absurd and league-leading 126.1 offensive rating since Feb. 1. Their defense dropped to eighth in efficiency, but their +15.1 net rating was beyond even their league-best mark of +12.6 for the year.

Both teams rank inside the top five in three-point percentage allowed. The Thunder were much more efficient from downtown in recent weeks, which makes that a focal point of the matchup. 

The microscope will also be placed on Holmgren and Hartenstein given the Rockets’ dominance on the glass. Holmgren went for 29 points and five rebounds in his only matchup with this opponent, while Hartenstein averaged 20 points and 10.5 rebounds across two meetings.

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Rockets vs. Thunder Betting Pick

• Rockets vs. Thunder pick: Rockets +9.5 (-110) at BetMGM 

Seeing a spread this large against a quality opponent is startling but warranted given the Thunder’s dominance. They also covered with relative ease in both of their wins against the Rockets.

The key areas to monitor will come in the turnover department, beyond the three-point line, and on the glass. The winning team will likely walk away with victories in at least two, if not all three, of those areas.

The Rockets didn’t look great against Sacramento but may have had their eyes set ahead. OKC’s defense hasn’t quite been at its usual best, and Houston’s physicality should help slow down an insatiable Thunder offense. We’d take the visitors with the points.

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How to Watch Rockets vs. Thunder on 3/3/25

• When: Monday, March 3 @ 7:00/8:00 p.m. PT/ET

• Where: Paycom Center, Oklahoma City, OK

• TV: NBA TV