Rockets vs. Lakers Prediction and Odds: The Battle for Playoff Seeding

The Houston Rockets (49-26) will visit the Los Angeles Lakers (45-29) for a showdown between projected Western Conference playoff opponents.

The Rockets throttled the Phoenix Suns last night, 148-109, to bring them to 12 wins in their last 13 games. That coincided with them reclaiming the second seed in the West, and they’re now two games clear of the second-place Denver Nuggets.

The Lakers beat the Memphis Grizzlies on Saturday, 134-127, to lock down the fourth spot in the West. They lost four of five games entering that one and had trouble closing games down the stretch, but a win would put them one game away from the Nuggets.

Here are my insights and best bets for the Rockets vs. Lakers showdown in the City of Angels on Monday night.

For more betting insights, check out our NBA Player Props and Best Bets.

Rockets vs. Lakers Betting Odds for Monday, March 31

The Rockets are 40-34-1 (54.1 percent) against the spread, 21-14-1 (60 percent) ATS on the road, and 12-8-1 (60 percent) ATS as an underdog.

The Lakers are 40-32-2 (55.6 percent) ATS, 24-13 (64.9 percent) ATS at home, and 23-20-2 (53.5 percent) ATS as a favorite.

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Rockets vs. Lakers Prediction

Houston Rockets Preview

Just when it seemed as if the Rockets’ slide from the second to the fifth seed was going to strip them of home-court advantage in the postseason, they ripped off their current winning streak to surge back into second in the West and put a bit of separation between themselves, the Nuggets, and the Lakers.

The Rockets ranked fourth in offensive and third in defensive rating with a +12.9 net rating (second) during that 13-game stretch. They’re also 11th in offensive and fourth in defensive rating with a +5.2 net rating (fourth) for the year overall.

One of the keys to their recent surge was their three-point shooting as they blossomed to 37.8 percent from deep compared to 35 percent (23rd) for the season.

At the same time, they outperformed their league-best average for offensive rebounds per game (14.8) with 15.3.

This Rockets team probably doesn’t have enough to make any serious headway in a playoff context. 

The backcourt pairing of Fred VanVleet and Jalen Green are low-efficiency shooters, going 38.3 and 42.6 percent from the floor and 34.8 and 35.3 percent from three, Amen Thompson is limited to scoring near the basket, Dillon Brooks can’t do much offensively aside from shoot threes, and Alperen Sengun isn’t far enough along in his development to win a series on his own.

With all that said, this team gives its opponents heck on a nightly basis. They are a very high-floor, high-intensity team with tons of hustle and the ability to create margins in “less-skilled” areas, whether that be their offensive rebounding, points off of turnovers, and fastbreak points. 

This is only the second meeting between the two teams. Houston won the first encounter at home, 119-115, against the Anthony Davis iteration of the roster.

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Los Angeles Lakers Preview

The Lakers looked like the clear-cut third-best team in the Association. Then they lost eight of 12 games. Now, they are looking for one final winning streak before the postseason.

JJ Redick issued a challenge to his team before Saturday’s win over the Grizzlies. In their best display as a trio, LeBron James, Luka Doncic, and Austin Reaves showed up and showed out with stat lines that were frankly remarkable to produce all in the same game.

Their box scores read…

• Reaves: 31 points, eight assists, seven rebounds

• Doncic: 29 points, nine assists, eight rebounds

• James: 25 points, eight assists, six rebounds, three steals

The purple and gold also shot 50.6 from the field, 44.2 percent from three (with 19 made shots), and 92.6 percent from the line. 

That game perfectly encapsulated why the Lakers have a championship window. But despite the excellence of these players, LA is only 15th with a +2.0 net rating in the clutch since Doncic’s Lakers debut on Feb. 10.

The Lakers are 17th in offensive and 18th in defensive rating with a -1.5 net rating (20th) over the last month of play. They still went 9-8 during that stretch, but their numbers were hurt by several blowouts, missed games by their stars, and a brutal stretch of games in a short period due to having to play several rescheduled matchups.

Monday’s matchup will test the Lakers’ hustle on the glass and their ability to move the ball and knock down shots against a team that is long, physical, and fast. A strong offensive showing would put them back on the right track and also help their race to climb to the second or third seed, especially with another matchup against the Rockets scheduled for April 11.

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Rockets vs. Lakers Betting Pick

• Rockets vs. Lakers pick: Rockets +4.5 (-105) at BetMGM

The Rockets have been playing much better recently, but the Lakers were dealing with a variety of extenuating circumstances and finally seem to be back to normal.

The Rockets went 22-14 with a +4.5 net rating (fourth) on the road, while the Lakers went 28-9 with a +4.1 net rating (12th) at home. Redick can’t exactly push the same challenge button two games in a row, although this game calls for the same level of focus and intensity.

I like the Rockets to cover in what should be a close game. They’re on the second night of a back-to-back, but they’re consistent, and in the event this is a low-scoring defensive battle, the importance of each point will be increased.

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How to Watch Rockets vs. Lakers on 3/31/25

• When: Monday, March 31 @ 7:100/10:00 p.m. PT/ET

• Where: crypto.com Arena, Los Angeles, CA

• TV: TNT/truTV/Max