The Toronto Raptors (8-28) will face the New York Knicks (24-13) in a northeast rivalry matchup in the Big Apple on Wednesday night.
The Raptors are just 1-15 on the road and lost 13 of their last 14 games after initially showing a glimpse of promise. They lost to the Milwaukee Bucks by 24 points their last time on the court and already came up with the short straw in two meetings with New York.
The Knicks enter on a rare three-game losing streak immediately coming off of a nine-game winning streak. They went 11-5 at home and have what is known as the best environment in American professional basketball behind them.
Here, we will break down the matchup and analyze the Raptors vs. Knicks betting odds for Wednesday.
The Raptors are 20-15-1 (57.1 percent) against the spread, 8-8 ATS on the road, and 19-13-1 (59.4 percent) ATS as an underdog.
The Knicks are 18-18-1 (50 percent) ATS, 8-7-1 (53.3 percent) ATS at home, and 16-16-1 (50 percent) ATS as a favorite.
Moneyline: Raptors +425) | Knicks -600
Spread: Raptors +11.5 (-115) | Knicks -11.5 (-105)
Total: Over 231.5 (-110) | Under 231.5 (-110)
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Theoretically, this should be the best the Raptors have been all year. They’re finally fully healthy and able to combine their young talents, many of which have shown real promise or ability to contribute at a high level, into one consistent rotation of players.
Unfortunately for them, this is nowhere near the best they’ve been. The Raptors ranked 27th in offensive and 29th in defensive rating over the last 15 games, resulting in a league-worst net rating of -13.4 during that stretch.
Even for the year as a whole, the Raptors are only 27th in net rating (-7.7). And are in the bottom seven in both offensive and defensive efficiency.
One of the team’s biggest issues is their play beyond the perimeter. They rank 23rd in both three-point percentage and three-point percentage allowed, which gives their opponents a clear mathematical advantage on the highest-scoring shot in the sport.
The team is 11th in rebound rate, yet they’re only 28th in second-chance points allowed per game. They’re also 24th or worse in several defensive categories, including points in the paint, points off of turnovers, and fastbreak points.
They only played 15 minutes together, but the team’s preferred starting lineup of Immanuel Quickley, Gradey Dick, RJ Barrett, Scottie Barnes, and Jakob Poeltl was outscored by an average of 30.1 points per 100 possessions. For comparison, that’s 2.5 times worse than the league’s worst team net rating, held by the Washington Wizards (-12.5).
Add in the team’s consistent struggles on the road (1-15, -10.9 net rating) and it’s hard to find much optimism heading into Wednesday night.
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The Knicks have a beautiful system of offense in place. They space the court, clash and cut, push the pace in transition, get to the free-throw line, and knock down perimeter shots just about as well as anyone in the league.
The team’s recent three-game slide doesn’t change our feelings about them or their ability. They still rank third in offensive rating for the season and are up to 14th in defensive rating after a sluggish start.
The Knicks don’t defend the three-point line well, but they make 37.9 percent of their attempts (fourth). They’re also the only team in the league to have four different players score at least 40 points in one game this season, with Jalen Brunson, Karl-Anthony Towns, Mikal Bridges, and OG Anunoby all hitting the mark.
While one of the Raptors’ few strengths is on the boards, the Knicks are even better. They posted the fifth-best rebound rate in the league and get production not only from their frontcourt, but also from the backcourt, largely thanks to Josh Hart.
NY also turns the ball over at the fourth-lowest frequency and is fully committed to its philosophy, for better or worse, which is why Bridges is playing 39.6 minutes per game—the most of any player since Luol Deng in 2012.
The Knicks are 2-0 ATS against the Raptors with wins of five and 14 points. They covered by exactly a half-point in both instances.
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Raptors vs. Knicks pick: Knicks -11.5 (-105) at BetMGM
The Raptors aren’t going to the playoffs, but they have the talent and time needed to become a formidable opponent before the end of the season arrives. Unfortunately for them, there hasn’t been any indication that they’re on the edge of that breakthrough.
The Knicks play a beautiful offense and have the advantage in every department in this matchup. They also have a proof of concept against the Raptors and get to face them at home.
Don’t over-complicate this one, take the better team that is playing better basketball.
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When: Wednesday, January 8 @ 7:30 p.m. ET
Where: Madison Square Garden, New York, NY
TV: NBA League Pass
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