Pacers vs. Bucks Prediction: Will Indy Close Out the Series?

The Indiana Pacers lead the Milwaukee Bucks 3-1 and have a chance to advance out of the first round of the Eastern Conference Playoffs when they take the court in Milwaukee on Tuesday evening.

The Pacers’ youth hasn’t slowed them down yet in the series as they won three straight games by an average of 11 points. Six players averaged double-digit points, including a combined 50.1 from the frontcourt pairing of Pascal Siakam and Myles Turner.

The Bucks are not only facing the peril of an early summer, but they’re likely to be without both Giannis Anteteokounmpo and Damian Lillard, both of whom are injured, in Game Five. They were excellent at home all year but are up against it if their stars can’t suit up.

Here, we will go over the betting odds and share our favorite pick for Game Five of the Pacers vs. Bucks series.

Pacers vs. Bucks Game Five Betting Odds for Tuesday, April 30

The Pacers are 46-38-3 (54.8 percent) against the spread and 7-8 (46.7 percent) ATS as a road favorite. They’re 6-3 ATS against the Bucks across all regular and postseason matchups and 2-2 ATS in the series.

The Bucks are 37-48-1 (43.5 percent) ATS and 4-1 (80 percent) ATS as a home underdog. They also covered in just five of their last 15 games dating back to the end of March.

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Pacers vs. Bucks Game Five Prediction

Indiana Pacers Preview

Indy started the year but rewriting the history books for pace and offensive efficiency before Tyrese Haliburton’s missed time and decline in performances due to a hamstring injury led them to finish with the second-best offense, behind the Boston Celtics.

Indy upheld that standard in the playoffs, posting the second-best offensive rating (121) of all 16 teams. That’s despite Haliburton averaging just 15.8 points on 29.4 percent three-point shooting and the team shooting a combined 35.5 percent from beyond the arc, which ranks 10th amongst playoff squads.

The Pacers spent the back half of the season working to improve their defense, which was nothing short of an unmitigated disaster during the first few months of their campaign. The arrival of Siakam in a trade with the Toronto Raptors allowed them to become more versatile and add more size to their frontcourt, which is why they slowly moved up the rankings over the last few months.

All of that extra attention to defense has not made a huge difference in this series as they rank 13th of 16 teams in defensive efficiency without having to face Antetokounmpo one time. 

Indy is firmly in the driver’s seat, but this series is not over just yet. Siakam averaged 15 points over his last two games after he averaged 36.5 in the first two, while Turner’s 24.3 points per game are 7.2 more than he averaged during the regular season.

The Pacers also ranked 15th in road net rating (-0.7) and were 7.3 points worse per 100 possessions away from home than they were in their arena during the regular season.

Milwaukee Bucks Preview

This is not a situation where the Bucks can afford to rush their stars back for an important matchup. Antetokounmpo is dealing with a calf issue and Lillard has an Achilles strain, both of which put them at risk of a torn Achilles and potentially missing a year-plus of basketball.

Anteteokounmpo averaged 42.2 points, 13.0 rebounds, and 5.4 assists in five matchups with the Pacers during the regular season, while Lillard averaged 32.3 points and 5.3 assists on 44.4 percent three-point shooting in this series. That’s an enormous loss of production for the Bucks, should they be without their star pairing the way they were in Game Four.

The Bucks are fourth in offensive rating but 15th in defensive rating amongst postseason contenders. They also rank 13th in rebound rate and dead last in both points off turnovers and fastbreak points.

Interestingly, Milwaukee did a great job defending against Indy’s transition game. That was a huge concern for them entering the series since they’re a slower team and were torn apart during the regular season.

The Bucks shot better than 51 percent from the field in Game Four without Antetokounmpo and Lillard and still lost by 13 points. It will be hard for them to play better on defense than they did in the game, which means they’ll need to lead with their defense to extend this series to six games.

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Pacers vs. Bucks Game Five Betting Pick

This series could have been much more competitive if the Bucks were at full health, but that wasn’t in the cards.

The Pacers are 27-16 on the road and won each of the last three games. They have the momentum, the healthier lineup, and a greater belief that they deserve to win the series than the Bucks do (or, at least, than they are playing with).

Take the Pacers to win Game Five and book their ticket to the second round by a decent margin.

• Pacers vs. Bucks pick: Pacers -4.5 (-110) at BetMGM

How to Watch Pacers vs. Bucks Game Five

• When: Tuesday, April 30 @ 8:30/9:30 p.m. CT/ET

• Where: Fiserv Forum, Milwaukee, WI

• TV: TNT

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