Pacers vs. Bucks Prediction and Odds: Bucks Hoping for First Win of the Series

The Indiana Pacers will take a 2-0 series lead on the road to face the Milwaukee Bucks in Game 3 of the Eastern Conference semifinals.

The Pacers stormed ahead in the series with a 19-point win in Game 1 and an eight-point win in Game 2 despite Damian Lillard’s return for the latter. They’re second in the playoffs in both field goal and three-point percentage, but they were only 20-20 on the road during the regular season. 

The Bucks are playing an elimination game tonight. No team has ever rallied from a 3-0 series deficit, but if the Bucks are going to respond, it should be on their home floor, where they went 27-14.

Here, I will break down the matchup and share my favorite betting picks for the Friday encounter.

For more betting insights, check out our daily NBA Player Props and Best Bets.

Pacers vs. Bucks Betting Odds for Friday, April 25

The Pacers are 38-43-3 (46.9 percent) against the spread, 19-22 (46.3 percent) ATS on the road, and 16-14-1 (53.3 percent) ATS as an underdog.

The Bucks are 43-40-2 (51.8 percent) ATS, 22-18-1 (55 percent) ATS at home, and 27-27-1 (50 percent) ATS as a favorite.

Odds from BetMGM Sportsbook. Use our BetMGM promo code WSNSPORTS to get up to $1,500 in bonus bets*.

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Pacers vs. Bucks Prediction

Indiana Pacers Preview

There are many reasons why the Pacers have been the authority thus far. One of the biggest is the speed and crispness of their offense, which has prioritized getting the ball across halfcourt within a few seconds to allow for early offense and more time to flow into a variety of actions.

That tempo has proven to be problematic for the Bucks, who aren’t suited (for a variety of reasons) to play in a track meet. Milwaukee’s 121.8 defensive rating in this series would also be the worst of any team in the regular season.

Indy has also converted its advantages into efficient offense, leading the playoffs in assist-to-turnover ratio and assist percentage and coming in second in true shooting percentage.

Pascal Siakam averaged 24.5 points and 9.0 rebounds, while Tyrese Haliburton averaged 15.5 points and 12 assists per game. The entire starting five averaged at least 11.5 points per game, and the bench has been solid too.

The Pacers are now 36-14 since the turn of the year, giving them the fourth-best record in basketball during that time. They went on a run to the conference finals last year and are putting themselves in a position to potentially do the exact same, though they will have their hands full with the Cleveland Cavaliers.

While there’s no doubt which team has been better through two games, the Pacers lost both regular-season road matchups with the Bucks. Those included a 12-point loss on Nov. 22 and a 13-point loss on March 15.

Keep an eye on how the Pacers target and defend Giannis Antetokounmpo. They’ve been content letting him get all of the numbers he wants to stay attached to all of his teammates, and they forced him to be engaged defensively by playing with pace in transition and staying active in the half-court.

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Milwaukee Bucks Preview

So, the season comes down to this. I’m already expecting an enormous game from Antetokounmpo, who averaged 35 points, 15 rebounds, and 4.0 assists per game in this series on a whopping 65.1 percent shooting.

The issue is determining who will step up alongside the potential best player in the world who is at the top of his game. Lillard went 4-13 for 14 points, seven rebounds, and three assists in his first game in over a month, and second-leading scorer, Bobby Portis, averaged 16 points per game off the bench. 

Antetokounmpo is the only starter who played both games and averaged more than 8.5 points. It should come as no surprise that the Bucks are only shooting 31.9 percent from beyond the arc and are 13th of 16 teams in assist percentage.

Doc Rivers hasn’t exactly coached a masterclass in this series, whether that be from having his players mentally engaged and ready to compete or putting players in the best position, but the short answer to the question “How do the Bucks get back in this series?” is by simply playing better.

Luckily for Milwaukee, that’s where this whole series could change. The Bucks are 6.3 points per 100 possessions better at home than they were on the road, while the Pacers were 5.9 points per 100 possessions worse on the road than they were at home. 

There are two ways for the Bucks to win Game 3 and bring competition back to the series. The first is to have Lillard go off and force the Pacers out of single-coverage with Andrew Nembhard, and the second is to dominate the glass in a way their size says they should be able to, but they haven’t recently or all season. 

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Pacers vs. Bucks Betting Pick

• Pacers vs. Bucks pick: Bucks -5.5 (-110) at BetMGM 

The Pacers have been and are much better than the Bucks, plain and simple. However, they don’t have an enraged Antetokounmpo going home to play in front of his home fans.

Giannis is good for a win or two in a series on his own, and he hasn’t delivered one of those just yet. The Pacers are also a young team and are in a position where they can afford to relax mentally going on the road with a commanding series lead, which makes this a dangerous lead and a prime let-down spot.

The Bucks are flawed and will not win a championship, but I see them shocking the basketball world with a resounding win on the court with which they found so much success. Expect a Giannis masterclass while we’re at it.

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How to Watch Pacers vs. Bucks on 4/25/25

• When: Friday, April 25 @ 7:00/8:00 p.m. CT/ET

• Where: Fiserv Forum, Milwaukee, WI

• TV: EPSNU/NBA TV