Nuggets vs. Warriors Prediction and Odds: Can Jokic Take Down the Red-Hot Dubs

The Denver Nuggets (43-25) will take on the Golden State Warriors (39-28) in the Bay on Monday night.

The Nuggets are in third place in the Western Conference and tied with the Houston Rockets and Memphis Grizzlies at 43-25. They only had one set of back-to-back wins since Feb. 20 but, fittingly, are coming off of a loss to the lowly Washington Wizards.

The Warriors won seven straight games and are up to sixth place in the West, 2.5 games behind the fifth-place Los Angeles Lakers and 3.5 games out of second place. They are 14-1 with Jimmy Butler in the lineup and beat the New York Knicks by three points in their last outing.

Here, we will preview the matchup and share our favorite Nuggets vs. Warriors betting picks for Monday.

For more betting insights, check out our NBA Player Props and Best Bets.

Nuggets vs. Warriors Betting Odds for Monday, March 17

The Nuggets are 32-35-1 (47.8 percent) against the spread, 16-18 (47.1 percent) ATS on the road, and 9-8 (52.9 percent) ATS as an underdog.

The Warriors are 34-31-2 (52.3 percent) ATS, 16-17-1 (48.5 percent) ATS at home, and 21-20-2 (51.2 percent) ATS as a favorite.

Odds from BetMGM Sportsbook. Use our BetMGM promo code WSNSPORTS to get up to $1,500 in bonus bets.

Nuggets vs. Warriors Prediction

Denver Nuggets Preview

The Nuggets are playing an interesting game. After hitting quite the hot streak after the new year, they seem to be incapable of playing like the same team on a nightly basis. Among the Nuggets’ highs over the last month are a last-minute comeback win against the shorthanded Lakers, a 140-127 road win against the Oklahoma City Thunder, and Nikola Jokic’s record-setting 31/22/21 performance against the Phoenix Suns.

Among their lows, a home loss to the 14-51 Wizards, a 20-point home loss to the Minnesota Timberwolves, and a 23-point home loss to the Lakers. 

There are several ways to explain the team’s highs and lows. On a positive note, they have the second-best offensive rating in the league and the best player in the world playing the best basketball of his career. They’ve also gotten more out of Russell Westbrook than many expected, and Christian Braun has seamlessly fit into the starting lineup in place of the outgoing Kentavious Caldwell-Pope. 

The negative to everything we just said is that Denver is 22nd in defensive rating and was outscored by 5.6 points per 100 possessions when Jokic wasn’t on the court. Their -1.7 bench net rating is also 21st, and their usually daunting home-court environment gas only helped them post the sixth-best home record in the West.

The Nuggets are only 7-6 with a -1.9 net rating over the last month of play—but as we alluded to, that’s not a sign of incompetence, but an indication of inconsistency. 

Despite these concerns, Denver was fifth in rebound rate and effective field goal percentage over the last month. Although often overlooked, these are important metrics in determining a team’s overall ability.

The Nuggets only matched up with the Warriors once this season, a 119-116 win at home on Dec. 3. Jokic went for 38 points and 10 rebounds, while Michael Porter Jr. was the only other Nuggets player to crack 15 points with 22.

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Golden State Warriors Preview

The Warriors’ honeymoon phase with Butler appears to have harmoniously transferred into the Warriors simply becoming a great basketball team.

Allow us to address the elephant in the room: The Dubs played one of the easiest schedules in the league over the last month and change. Their only games against playoff teams were against the Rockets and Knicks, who they played twice but only once with Jalen Brunson.

That said, it’d be unfair to expect a struggling team to instantly become consistent against bonafide contenders. They now have the chance to take the habits they built against inferior competition and apply them to their remaining 15 games, which are the 14th-toughest in the league per strength of schedule.

Golden State over the last month is second in offensive and tied for first in defensive rating with an NBA-best +13.3 point differential per 100 possessions. They also went 6-0 at home with a +17.5 net rating.

The key to the Warriors’ surge, particularly on offense, is their overall increase in efficiency. They made the third-most free throws per game and shot the best free-throw percentage, while they also ranked third in made threes per game and fifth in three-point percentage over the last month of play. 

They’ve also been tough on the boards, ranking eighth in rebound rate despite not often playing a traditional big man. 

The Warriors found the most success in their building this year, going 21-13 with a +2.8 net rating (14th). The challenge here will be for their somewhat undersized team to defend against the massive Jokic and the Nuggets’ high-flying offense. 

Golden State ranked seventh in field goal percentage allowed at the rim but only 21st in three-point percentage allowed over the last month of play, both of which will be key in trying to stop Jokic as a scorer and once he collapses the defense, leaving a Nuggets player open beyond the arc.

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Nuggets vs. Warriors Betting Pick

• Nuggets vs. Warriors pick: Nuggets +4.5 (-110) at BetMGM

Games like these are a referendum on the importance of the final month of the regular season. The Warriors are playing outstanding basketball, but they’re still an unknown against a consistently difficult schedule.

Meanwhile, the Nuggets have routinely shown they have the knockout power needed to knock off contenders, but their overall inconsistency has prevented them from running away with the two seed like they should have. 

We land on the Nuggets having a great chance to cover and even win here. The Warriors barely squeaked by the Knicks sans Brunson, and the Nuggets haven’t shown as much reliance on their home-court advantage to win games this season. Jokic also recently gave a quote that emphasized the importance of finishing the regular season strong.

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How to Watch Nuggets vs. Warriors on 3/17/25

• When: Monday, March 17 @ 7:00/10:00 p.m. PT/ET

• Where: Chase Center, San Francisco, CA 

• TV: NBA TV