Nuggets vs. Thunder Prediction and Odds: Best in the West Host Top Challengers

The Denver Nuggets (41-23) are en route to face the Oklahoma City Thunder (53-11) in a potential Western Conference Finals preview featuring two of the top three teams in the West.

A win would send the Nuggets into sole control of second place in the West for at least a half-hour depending on what happens in the Los Angeles Lakers’ matchup with the Brooklyn Nets. Denver lost to OKC by 24 points when they played two days ago but scored 149 points in an overtime win the game before.

The Thunder are expected to be at full health and are a ridiculous 28-4 in their building. They lead the season series with the Nuggets 2-1 and are riding a seven-game win streak.

Here, we will review the odds and share our favorite Nuggets vs. Thunder betting picks for Monday.

For more betting insights, check out our NBA Player Props and Best Bets.

Nuggets vs. Thunder Betting Odds for Monday, March 10

The Nuggets are 31-32-1 (49.2 percent) against the spread, 8-8 (50 percent) ATS as an underdog, and 15-18 (45.5 percent) ATS on the road.

The Thunder are 38-23-4 (62.3 percent) ATS, 37-22-4 (62.7 percent) ATS as a favorite, and 20-10-2 (66.7 percent) ATS at home.

Odds from BetMGM Sportsbook. Use our BetMGM promo code WSNSPORTS to get up to $1,500 in bonus bets.

Nuggets vs. Thunder Prediction

Denver Nuggets Preview

The Nuggets have found a way to work themselves back into championship contention despite failing to replace important members of their rotation the last couple of years, including Jeff Green, Bruce Brown, and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope. 

Their recent surge largely coincided with increased output from the already-incredible Nikola Jokic, who became the first player in NBA history with a 30/20/20 game when he dropped 31 points, 22 assists, and 21 rebounds against the Phoenix Suns last Friday.

The Nuggets posted the third-highest offensive rating in the league since the start of the New Year. Their defense was only 17th, but they still ranked fifth in net rating (+6.5) to go with a 23-10 record during that time. 

Those marks don’t deviate too far from their season averages of third in offensive and 20th in defensive rating with a +4.7 net rating (fifth).

Despite having a halfcourt maestro like Jokic as the controls, the Nuggets are fifth in pace of play. They also rank third in rebound rate and lead the league in assist-to-turnover ratio, all of which vindicate their status as one of the top three teams in a loaded conference.

All that said, there’s a glaring issue that has received very little national attention.

The issue? The Nuggets are only 4-13 against teams with top-10 point differentials. Their -9.3 net rating (excluding garbage time, per Cleaning the Glass) ranks 20th right between the San Antonio Spurs and Philadelphia 76ers, and they underperformed the spread by an average of 7.2 points per game, the worst mark in the Association.

Denver’s only win against OKC came in the pair’s eighth game of the season. Jokic, Russell Westbrook, Christian Braun, and Michael Porter Jr. all scored at least 23 points as the team put up 124 in a two-point win.

Meanwhile, the matchup between the two two days ago saw Jokic and Porter Jr. score exactly 24 while nobody else cracked 20. The bench also contributed just 14 points, which is a fair representation of a bench unit that has the fourth-worst offensive rating among reserves.

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Oklahoma City Thunder Preview

There’s no way to say this other than to tell the truth. The Thunder, despite their age, are having a historic season.

Modern basketball fans and analysts have been conditioned to ignore dominant seasons from teams and players who haven’t proven themselves on the biggest stage in the postseason and, in most cases, won a championship.

While there’s logic behind that, three of the last four NBA Finals winners were led by stars and supporting casts that were mostly, if not all first-time champions for organizations that had not won a ring in many years.

Could this be the Thunder’s year to break through and capture the organization’s first title? It’s too early to know, but they are doing everything possible to get into that conversation.

The team ranks fourth in offensive and first in defensive rating, leading to a league-best +12.8 net rating. Recency bias only exaggerates that difference as they posted a +13.7 net rating since Jan. 1.

There are many different ways to describe what makes OKC so great, but their most important quality is balance. They lead the league in points off turnovers per game, turn the ball over at the lowest frequency, allow the fewest points per possession, are first in three-point percentage (38.8) since the New Year, and lead the league in free-throw percentage.

To make matters even worse for their opponents, OKC’s glaring weakness on the glass is gone. They ranked 12th in rebound rate in 2025 and can no longer be overpowered inside by anyone with size.

On top of all that, the Thunder outscored their opponents by 14.9 points per 100 possessions at home. It will take a team with an unstoppable offensive force and intense defensive commitment to get past this team in the playoffs.

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Nuggets vs. Thunder Betting Pick

• Nuggets vs. Thunder pick: Thunder -8.5 (-115) at BetMGM 

If there’s one player roaming this earth with the ability to single-handedly dismantle the Thunder’s defense, it’s Jokic. However, his stat line of 21 points, 15 rebounds, and 12.7 assists in three games against the Thunder might be great for anyone else, but it isn’t enough in the scoring department.

The Nuggets are only 20th in three-point percentage allowed to opponents for the year and will struggle to match the speed and spacing of the Thunder. They also make the third-fewest threes per game and will likely lose the points off turnovers battle, which means they’ll need to create margins at the free-throw line and on the glass to have a chance in this matchup.

We ultimately believe the Thunder are going to be too much to handle and like them to follow their trend of winning and covering at home.

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How to Watch Nuggets vs. Thunder on 3/10/25

• When: Monday, March 10 @ 7:00/8:00 p.m. CT/ET

• Where: Paycom Center, Oklahoma City, OK

• TV: NBA TV