The Nuggets have been quietly consistent while upstart teams such as the Minnesota Timberwolves and Oklahoma City Thunder dominated headlines out west.
Denver ranks sixth in point differential per 100 possessions for the season and ninth in January. Their offense is playing more efficiently than it did last year, and despite not being thought of as a defensive team, they’ve comfortably rolled out a top-half defense.
The issues that plagued the Nuggets whenever their starters went to the bench are still present, but not to the same extreme. They’re 18th in bench net rating (-1.5) in January, which is better than where they are for the year as a whole (25th, -2.2).
Denver plays at the third-slowest pace in the league but juxtaposes that with outstanding offensive efficiency. They’re first in assist-to-turnover ratio and score at every level, ranking fifth in points in the paint and 10th in three-point percentage. They’re also top-six in points per possession involving hand-offs, pick-and-rolls with the roll man taking the shot, and post-ups.
The Nuggets’ commitment to the defensive end are often understated. They allow the fourth-fewest open shots (closest defender 4-6 feet away) and third-fewest wide-open shots (defender beyond six feet) per game.
Jokic enters the matchup amid his best stretch of play of the season. He averaged 26.5 points, 10.9 rebounds, and 9.0 assists on a ridiculous 71.5% field goal shooting and 56.3% three-point shooting in January.
Jamal Murray also just put up 31 points, eight rebounds, and seven assists against the Pacers and averaged 24.6 across January, his highest-scoring month of the campaign.
The Nuggets only outscore opponents by .9 points per 100 possessions on the road—however, they seem to have turned around their road form recently and have as strong a chance as ever to knock off the Knicks.
Speaking of the Knicks, they have the second-best net rating this month and have totally transformed defensively ever since Anunoby’s arrival. They had the worst defensive rating in December and now have the best def. rating in January and are down 19.4 points allowed per 100 possessions month-to-month.
New York wasn’t much of a shooting team in the past, but it’s 11th in percentage (37.2%) and 12th in makes per game. The team is also more efficient shooting the rock at home.
The Knicks won seven of their last eight games at home, although they have not beaten a team over .500 there since they took down the Minnesota Timberwolves on New Year’s Day.
Jalen Brunson is somehow still not receiving the national attention he deserves. The 27-year-old is up to 29.0 points and 8.0 assists per game in January, while Julius Randle averaged 26.0 points, 8.3 rebounds, and 5.3 assists during the same stretch.
The Knicks are the best rebounding team in the league but could face a bit of an issue on Thursday. Not only is Mitchell Robinson out, but Isaiah Hartenstein did not play in the team’s last game and is currently questionable with an Achilles problem.
NY has the advantage when it comes to the second unit. They rank fifth in bench net rating (+1.8) and can outplay the Nuggets’ reserves, especially at home.
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Nuggets vs. Knicks Prediction and Betting Pick
The Nuggets are the reigning champions and are extremely consistent, but the Knicks are red-hot and have home-court advantage (where they’re 14-5).
The potential loss of Hartenstein could have crippling effects as far as defensive rebounding and second-chance opportunities. Bettors would be best advised to wait on his official status before placing their bets.
Both of these teams should make runs in the playoffs this season. While the Nuggets have the higher upside, we like the Knicks to cover in this game thanks to their run of form and outstanding overall cohesion.
How to Watch Nuggets vs. Knicks
When: Thursday, Jan. 25 @ 7:30 ET
Where: Madison Square Garden, New York, NY
TV: NBA League Pass
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