Nuggets vs. Kings Prediction and Odds for December 16: Is Jokic On Course for His Fourth MVP

The Denver Nuggets (13-10) are going on the road to face the Sacramento Kings (13-13) in a matchup between Western Conference rivals on Monday.

The Nuggets won back-to-back games by at least 22 points against the LA Clippers and the Atlanta Hawks. They’re only 6-6 on the road but are healthy, which they haven’t been for long stretches during the first quarter of the season. 

The Kings, meanwhile, won three straight games and had four days of rest between games. They’re 6-7 at home and are yet to face Denver this season.

Here, we will review the odds and share our favorite betting picks for the Nuggets vs. Kings showdown.

Nuggets vs. Kings Betting Odds for Monday, December 16

The Nuggets are 9-13-1 (40.9 percent) against the spread 4-11-1 (26.7 percent) ATS as a favorite, and 5-7 (41.7 percent) ATS on the road.

The Kings are 10-15-1 (40 percent) ATS, 3-5 ATS (37.5 percent) ATS as an underdog, and 4-5-1 (44.4 percent) ATS at home.

The following odds for the Nuggets vs. Kings game are courtesy of BetMGM Sportsbook. Head over to BetMGM to place your bets and claim up to $1,500 in bonus bets* with our promo code WSNSPORTS.

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Nuggets vs. Kings Prediction

Denver Nuggets Preview

The Nikola Jokic-led Nuggets are no longer a modern marvel in the NBA. Everyone knows how they play their favorite tricks, and where they are vulnerable. The key is to exploit these details, which is easier said than done.

At full strength, the Nuggets’ starting five could be the most balanced in the league. Jamal Murray creates chaos with on-ball creation and off-ball movement, Nikola Jokic sets the table, forces mismatches, and can score anytime he wants, Michael Porter Jr. knocks down open threes, Aaron Gordon fills in the gaps, and Christian Braun can apply rim pressure or space to the three-point line.

As fluid as Denver’s starting five might be on the court together, their usual issues with the bench have continued to be an issue. They posted the second-worst bench net rating (-5.4), whereas their starters ranked fifth (+6.0).

As a team, the Nuggets are seventh in offensive and 15th in defensive rating. They’re also 11th in rebound rate and outscored their opponents by an average of 10.2 points per 100 possessions in clutch situations (sixth), defined as a game that is within five points in the final five minutes.

All that said, the 2022-23 NBA champions were only 6-7 over the last month of play. That’s with Nikola Jokic posting an absurd stat line of 31.5 points, 13.2 rebounds, and 9.8 assists per game while shooting 56.4 percent from the field and 51.2 percent from three.

An area of concern for Denver is its interior defense. They are 27th in points in the paint allowed per game, which could prove to be problematic against a Kings team that has several prolific paint scorers.

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Sacramento Kings Preview

Mike Brown and the Kings are on the cusp of being a great team, but they just can’t break through. Brown knows that, as evidenced by his impassioned postgame rants and comments on his team that often center on the themes of focus and consistency.

The Kings are sixth in offensive and 14th in defensive rating. They outscored their opponents by an average of 3.5 points per 100 possessions (11th), yet they find themselves at .500 for the season.

The Big Three of De’Aaron Fox, DeMar DeRozan, and Domantas Sabonis all prefer to deal their damage inside the perimeter. It makes sense based on that that the Kings would want them to be surrounded by knockdown three-point shooters, but unfortunately for them, that hasn’t gone to plan.

The Kings are 21st in three-point shooting (34.4 percent), and four of their five starters shot worse than 33 percent from deep. That includes Keegan Murray, who is at 29.9 percent despite being at 35.8 percent the year before, and Kevin Huerter, who shot 31.1 percent a year after being at 36.1 percent.

The woeful distance shooting makes the Kings’ offensive rating even more impressive and shows how high their ceiling can be when they’re dialed in from deep.

On the other end, the Kings’ biggest defensive issues are sustaining their effort for the entire 24 seconds and keeping their intensity into extended possessions. Their initial defense is great, which is why they lead the league in fastbreak points allowed per game, but it’s those longer possessions that can cause them to run into trouble.

That should be especially interesting since Denver is fifth in pace and first in fastbreak points per game but also has the ability to slow down the game and play in the half-court thanks to Jokic.

Nuggets vs. Kings Betting Pick

• Nuggets vs. Kings pick: Kings ML (-115) at BetMGM

Stylistically, this is a very interesting matchup. The Kings won three of four meetings between the two last year and have a player in Sabonis who somewhat mimics what Jokic does (to a lower level), yet their inconsistency has been a glaring issue.

On the other hand, the Nuggets have a player who is doing things the game of basketball has never seen, but they’re always playing at a disadvantage any time the reserves are out on the floor. 

The Kings are a good basketball team, and it’s time for them to prove it. We like the Kings to get the job done on their home floor thanks to improved defense on the back of four days off.

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How to Watch Nuggets vs. Kings on 12/16/24

• When: Friday, Dec. 16 @ 7:00/10:00 p.m. PT/ET

• Where: Golden 1 Center, Sacramento, CA

• TV: NBA League Pass

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