Mavericks vs. Lakers Prediction and Odds: Luka Doncic Faces His Old Team in LA

The Dallas Mavericks (31-27) are colliding with the Los Angeles Lakers (34-21) in an epic showdown between rivals, trade partners, former teams, and the biggest names in the game.

The meeting marks the first time the teams will cross paths since the blockbuster trade that sent Luka Doncic to LA for Anthony Davis and Max Christie. The Mavs enter on the back of a 24-point loss at the Golden State Warriors, while the Lakers are in completely different spirits after they beat the Denver Nuggets by 23 points on the road on Saturday.

Dallas is only 13-16 away from home, while LA is 19-7 on its floor. Doncic finally looked like himself in his last game and will be chomping at the bit to deliver his revenge against the team that blindsided him after seven years of service.

Here, we will preview the matchup and share our favorite Mavericks vs. Lakers betting picks for Tuesday.

Mavericks vs. Lakers Betting Odds for Tuesday, February 25

The Mavs are 30-26-2 (53.6 percent) against the spread, 12-15-2 (44.4 percent) ATS on the road, and 16-13-1 (55.2 percent) ATS as an underdog.

The Lakers are 30-24-1 (55.6 percent) ATS, 16-10 (61.5 percent) ATS at home, and 16-15-1 (51.6 percent) ATS as a favorite.

Mavericks vs. Lakers Prediction

Dallas Mavericks Preview

This season is going to boil down to how quickly the Mavs can gel, and how fast they’ll climb the conference ladder once the team is fully healthy. 

Unfortunately, they are anything but that in the present, with Anthony Davis, Caleb Martin, Daniel Gafford, Dereck Lively II, and Dwight Powell all expected to miss Tuesday’s encounter. P.J. Washington is also questionable with an ankle sprain.

All of those injuries reduce the Mavs to a projected starting lineup of Kyrie Irving, Dante Exum, Klay Thompson, Kessler Edwards, and P.J. Washington with Max Christie as the sixth man. 

The vision when trading Doncic was to form an unstoppable frontcourt with size, versatility, and relentless activity that would give Dallas the best offensive and defensive interior. But with Davis, Gafford, and Lively all injured, the team has very little rim protection and sacrificed its best scorer and playmaker, Doncic.

Since Doncic was injured on Christmas Day, The Mavericks ranked 19th in offensive and 24th in defensive rating with a -3.2 net rating (20th) and 12-16 overall record. Shrinking the sample size to their last 10 games, they ranked 16th in offensive and 25th in defensive rating with a -5.4 net rating (23rd).

Naturally, Dallas’ lack of size due to injuries has also taken its toll. The team is only 26th in rebound rate over its last 10 games. 

Irving had a few heroic performances without Doncic, but without other credible offensive threats on the floor, teams have been able to show extra presence in his direction without fear of being punished on the weak side. That’s why he has just as many 30-point games as he does games scoring below 20 points in his last six games (three apiece).

Dallas’ bench is going to need to be able to provide a shot in the arm for them to survive against a healthier, better, and highly motivated opponent. Their reserves are only 15th in net rating (-0.5) for the year and were 18th (-0.8) since Christie and Davis arrived despite the former making a positive impact.

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Los Angeles Lakers Preview

The Lake Show just had the best dry rehearsal possible. Now, its sights are set on becoming a bonafide contender in a Western Conference in which the Oklahoma City Thunder are minus-money favorites (-115) to win the title.

LA does not have much size or a starting-level center, and it’s still working to find a way to assimilate Doncic into a LeBron James and Austin Reaves-led offense. Despite that, the Lakers allowed the fewest points per 100 possessions (107.8) and ranked eighth in scoring per 100 possessions (117.6) since January 15. That gave them a net rating of +9.8 during that time, which ranked third and only trailed the Thunder (+12.2) and Cleveland Cavaliers (+11.5).

What makes that stretch of play even more impressive is it included wins over the Boston Celtics, New York Knicks, Warriors, Los Angeles Clippers, Indiana Pacers and Denver Nuggets.

Since Davis played his final game for the purple and gold, the Lakers had two games against teams with top-10 point differentials. They went 2-0 with a league-best +22.1 average scoring margin per 100 possessions, buoyed by them scoring an astonishing 132.4 points per 100 possessions and allowing just 110.3 points per 100 possessions.

Although the Mavericks don’t fit the criteria of a top-10 opponent, they will likely be treated as such because of Doncic and the hard feelings that likely exist behind the scenes.

Looking back at LA’s 123-100 win over Denver, the Lakers found success by finally putting the ball primarily in Doncic’s hands. He led the team with a 36 percent usage rate, followed by LeBron at 28.4 and Reaves at 23.4.

Meanwhile, the Lakers’ defensive activity has been outstanding as of late. JJ Redick also showed his salt as a coach with a brilliant game plan that led to Nikola Jokic’s worst scoring game in five years and will have that freedom and flexibility to do what he wants against a team battling tons of injuries. 

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Mavericks vs. Lakers Betting Pick

• Mavericks vs. Lakers pick: Lakers -8.5 (-110) at BetMGM

Storylines don’t always translate to performances, but it’s hard to deny that this game sets up well for the Lakers. They are playing the best basketball in the league, just had their best win of the past few seasons, and will want to be at their best going against Doncic’s former team.

On the flip side, the Mavs only have three healthy starters and are being forced to give serious minutes to guys who would usually be out of the rotation. 

LA is 8-2 ATS over its last 10 games and is hitting its stride. We like them to blow this game open and walk away with another win and cover at home.

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How to Watch Mavericks vs. Lakers on 2/25/25

• When: Tuesday, February 25 @ 7:00/10:00 p.m. PT/ET

• Where: crypto.com Arena, Los Angeles, CA

• TV: TNT/truTV/Max

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