Mavericks vs. Kings Prediction and Odds: Can Anthony Davis Inspire an Upset?

The Dallas Mavericks (39-43) will visit the Sacramento Kings (40-42) for the 9/10 matchup of the Western Conference Play-In Tournament on Wednesday.

The Mavs head into the postseason without Luka Doncic for the first time since 2016. Anthony Davis will appear in the Play-In Tournament for the third straight season and fresh off a 23-point triple-double in his last outing as he looks to cement his status with the Dallas fans.

The Kings eliminated the Golden State Warriors from the Play-In a year ago and get the benefit of playing this do-or-die game in their building. They swept the three-game season series against the Mavs and won four of their final six games to close the regular season.

For more betting insights, check out our daily NBA Player Props and Best Bets.

Here, I will break down the Mavericks vs. Kings matchup and share my favorite bets for Wednesday.

Mavericks vs. Kings Betting Odds for Wednesday, April 16

The Mavericks are 38-42-2 (47.5 percent) against the spread, 18-22-2 (45 percent) ATS on the road, and 22-24-1 (47.8 percent) ATS as an underdog.

The Kings are 34-44-4 (43.6 percent) ATS, 14-24-3 (36.8 percent) ATS at home, and 20-27-4 (42.6 percent) ATS as a favorite.

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Mavericks vs. Kings Prediction

Dallas Mavericks Preview

Nico Harrison wants everyone to know that defense wins championships. What an original guy.

Let’s put aside the fact that the Mavs traded Luka Doncic in the heart of his prime and look at what they received in the trade. Anthony Davis is a dominant defensive player who can go for 40 points and 20 rebounds on any given night, and he had a number of memorable performances in recent postseasons.

Davis also finally shrugged off the demons of the Domantas Sabonis matchup and went for 36 points, 15 rebounds, and eight assists the last time they squared off in December.

Dallas’ frontcourt offers tremendous interior defense and rebounding with Davis, Daniel Gafford, Dereck Lively II, and PJ Washington all poised to play heavy minutes. They have as strong a shot as anyone at shutting the water off for Sabonis and taking away the rack attacks that both DeMar DeRozan and Zach LaVine love to incorporate into their game.

It’s hard to find impressive metrics for the Mavericks given the amount of games they played with injured stars and the constant shuffling of their rotation. However, they are 6-3 with Davis on the floor, which isn’t nothing for a team with an overall .476 winning percentage.

Guard play is a massive question mark for the visitors. Naji Marshall often acts as a de facto facilitator even though he isn’t a natural ball-handler, and Dante Exum and Max Christie are the only guards in their rotation off the bench.

One player to keep an eye on is Klay Thompson. He went 0-10 for zero points in the Warriors’ Play-In loss to the Kings last year and averaged just 9.2 points per game over the final month of the regular season after putting up 14 per game for the year.

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Sacramento Kings Preview

The Kings have been wildly inconsistent all year. Then again, that’s what they should’ve expected when they pivoted away from De’Aaron Fox to rerun the LaVine-DeRozan partnership that was basically a walking ticket to the Play-In Tournament in Chicago.

The Kings finished the year seventh in offensive and 22nd in defensive rating for a +0.6 net rating (15th). They fell to 14th in offensive and 25th in defensive rating with a -3.4 net rating (21st) over the final month of the regular season, during which they went 7-11 straight-up.

This team also had issues playing against teams with a similar level of ability. They went 8-13 with a -5.0 net rating (22nd) against teams with middle-10 point differentials, which the Mavericks have.

For reference, the Mavs went 9-11 with a -2.3 net rating (19th) in these matchups.

Sacramento finished the year shooting the ball well, ranking seventh in three-point percentage over the final 30 days. However, they were only 23rd in made threes per game during this time, which shows their preference for playing inside the arc.

The Kings want to slow down and play in the halfcourt. They ranked 26th in pace of play to close the year, which serves to explain why they were great at limiting such as rebounds allowed per game despite being league-average in rebound percentage.

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Mavericks vs. Kings Betting Pick

• Mavericks vs. Kings pick: Mavericks ML (+155) at BetMGM

The Kings’ tendency to stay away from the perimeter could become a problem if the Mavericks demonstrate a level of comfort playing with their tall lineup and clogging the interior. That would necessitate strong shooting days from LaVine, Keegan Murray, and their bench players.

Davis got to sit out for long periods of time this year due to injuries. While that’s not desirable in a vacuum, it means he will be rested for this matchup. I also love the chance for him to ingratiate himself with the Mavericks fans who clearly still miss Doncic, as seen by their reception of him in his return to Dallas.

I’m calling the upset. The Kings are wildly inconsistent and were 19th in clutch rating since they traded Fox, which leaves the Mavericks looking like a valuable play.

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How to Watch Mavericks vs. Kings on 4/16/25

• When: Wednesday, April 16 @ 7:00/10:00 p.m. PT/ET

• Where: Golden 1 Center, Sacramento, CA

• TV: ESPN