The Utah Jazz (2-8) are looking for their first home win of the season as they prepare to host the Dallas Mavericks (5-6) on Thursday night.
The standalone game in the NBA pits two teams that enjoyed recent success in the Western Conference, though neither one produced the start it would have hoped for. The Mavs are riding a three-game losing streak, while the Jazz are 2-2 over their last four but started their season 0-6.
Here, we will analyze the odds and share our favorite Mavericks vs. Jazz betting pick for Thursday.
The Mavs are 4-6-1 (40 percent) against the spread,3-5 (37.5 percent) ATS as the favorite, and 1-2-1 (33.3 percent) ATS on the road.
The Jazz are 4-6 (40 percent) ATS, every time being the underdog, and 1-4 (20 percent) ATS at home.
The following odds are from BetMGM Sportsbook. Place your bets on the Mavericks vs Jazz game at BetMGM and claim up to $1,500 in bonus bets with our promo code WSNSPORTS.
Teams | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
---|---|---|---|
Dallas Mavericks | -9.5 (-110) | -450 | Over 230.5 (-105) |
Utah Jazz | +9.5 (-110) | +333 | Under 230.5 (-115) |
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The Mavericks finished the 2023-24 campaign as one of the strongest teams in the league and went on a run all the way to the NBA Finals, where they were defeated by the Boston Celtics in five games.
One of Dallas’ biggest problems in that series was their inability to take and make movement threes, particularly if they weren’t created by Luka Doncic or Kyrie Irving. Their solution to that problem was to acquire Klay Thompson, whose tenure in Golden State came to a frustrating end.
Thompson averaged 14.5 points on 37.2 percent three-point shooting thus far and made a solid impact, though he’s on pace to shoot the worst three-point percentage of his career.
The team effort has been fairly balanced on both ends. Dallas ranks 10th in offensive and 11th in defensive rating, though they posted the fifth-worst rebound rate in basketball.
Although the Mavs lost their last game to the Golden State Warriors, they played with impressive speed in transition and created a ton of open looks on offense. The individual creative abilities of Doncic and Irving combined with constant rim-runs and movement beyond the three-point line all show that this offense can become far more damaging than it has been thus far.
Immediate improvement will come once the team begins to knock down more long-range shots. They’re only 22nd in basketball with a 34.6 three-point shooting percentage.
On the bright side, they held opponents to the sixth-worst efficiency from beyond the arc (34.2 percent).
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It’s going to take time before Utah can get back to contending for the top seed in the Western Conference. They have the worst net rating, having been outscored by 13 points per 100 possessions, and the second-worst bench net rating in the league.
The problems don’t stop there. Only three teams allow more points per 100 possessions defended, while no team scores fewer points during the same average stretch.
Even Utah’s supposed strength with such a tall roster, rebounding, has not been up to snuff. They’re 14th in rebound percentage, and leading rebounder Walker Kessler will not play on Thursday.
Lauri Markkanen is off to a disappointing start. After back-to-back years scoring at least 23 points per game, the big Finnish forward scored just 16.7 per night on 38.9 percent shooting.
For added context, he failed to score 10 points just as many times as he scored more than 20 (twice).
Utah allows teams to shoot 37.2 percent from three (25th) and shoots just 32.4 percent from distance itself (sixth).
All of this is not to say that there aren’t promising youthful players on the roster. Keyonte George made a name for himself last year, while Coy Williams, Kyle Filipowski, and Johnny Juzang have all gotten their opportunities. However, that has not resulted in anything noticeably important relative to the bottom line of winning basketball games.
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Mavericks vs. Jazz pick: Mavericks -9.5 (-110) at BetMGM
The Mavs are a solid team but have the potential to be much better as the offense continues to gel, and as their shots start to fall.
Utah is in the middle of a transformation and is building for the future. Missing Kessler greatly diminishes their strongest asset, rebounding, and they’ve been a disaster offensively and defensively nearly all year.
We’d recommend looking at the Mavericks -9.5 on Thursday night.
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When: Thursday, Nov. 14 at 7:00/9:00 p.m. MT/ET
Where: Delta Center, Salt Lake City, UT
TV: NBA TV
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