Mavericks vs. Grizzlies Prediction and Odds: Will Dallas Become the First 10 Seed to Make the Playoffs?

The Dallas Mavericks (39-43) are visiting the Memphis Grizzlies (48-34) for the final game of the Play-In Tournament to determine who will secure the eighth seed in the Western Conference playoffs.

No 10 seed has made the full-fledged playoffs since the inception of the Play-In Tournament, which means the Mavericks are on the verge of making history. They beat the Sacramento Kings 120-106 on Wednesday but went 0-2 against the Grizzlies after they traded Luka Doncic.

The Grizz are headed back home after their failed 20-point comeback on Tuesday saw them fall to the Golden State Warriors, 121-116. Ja Morant suffered an ankle injury during the contest and, although he returned in the fourth quarter and had an impact on offense, looked close to incapable of playing defense.

For more betting insights, check out our daily NBA Player Props and Best Bets.

Here, I will break down the Mavericks vs. Grizzlies Play-In Tournament odds and best bets.

Mavericks vs. Grizzlies Betting Odds for Friday, April 18

The Mavericks are 39-42-2 (48.2 percent) against the spread, 19-22-2 (46.3 percent) ATS on the road, and 23-24-1 (48.9 percent) ATS as an underdog.

The Grizzlies are 42-40-1 (51.2 percent) ATS, 20-21 (48.8 percent) ATS at home, and 29-23 (55.8 percent) ATS as a favorite.

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Mavericks vs. Grizzlies Prediction

Dallas Mavericks Preview

No, a team should not trade a 25-year-old Doncic for anything short of a king’s ransom.

But while it’s easy to poke fun at the Mavs and general manager Nico Harrison, it’s also easy to forget that they now employ Anthony Davis, one of the 10 best basketball players in the world and the most impactful defender in the sport.

Davis took a step in the right direction toward winning over his new fan base on Wednesday as he dropped 27 points and nine rebounds with three blocks against the Kings. There’s still a long way to go, but the vision of inserting him into an enormous frontcourt to both affect their opponents’ inside game and dominate the boards could finally be seen.

It’s unfair to judge the Mavs based on their metrics since half of their season was spent with Doncic, and most of the next half was marred by injuries. However, they’re 7-3 with Davis in the lineup and have tons of experienced playoff performers, including their Finals runner-up corps from last year, Davis, Caleb Martin, Klay Thompson, and others.

One of the biggest challenges for the Mavs will be adjusting to the sharp change in pace of the Grizzlies. Sacramento was only 26th in pace to finish the year, while Memphis led the league.

This team was also just 17-25 on the road for the year. Many of those losses came during their struggles to field a healthy roster, but they’re still up against a wall trying to win back-to-back do-or-die road games.

On a more positive note, the Grizzlies’ lack of point-of-attack defense alleviates the concerns of not having a primary initiator, a role that was largely filled by Naji Marshall, P.J. Washington, and Brandon Williams on Wednesday.

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Memphis Grizzlies Preview

Tuesday’s loss to the Grizzlies was devastating for several reasons.

Memphis had not beaten a Western Conference opponent with a winning record since January. They rallied from a 35-55 deficit to be within one point with 4:51 remaining, but they never got over the hump.

Morant’s ankle injury also left him limited, and it remains to be seen how effective he will be now that he’s had 48 hours for the swelling to settle.

One player to keep an eye on in this matchup is 7-foot-4 rookie center Zach Edey. Memphis remained committed to their big man despite a wildly up-and-down showing, one he finished with 14 points and 17 rebounds in 33 minutes.

Edey was a victim of having to guard Jimmy Butler and smaller Warriors players in space and had four turnovers and five personal fouls. However, he commanded the boards and won’t have his defensive weaknesses exposed against a taller team without any creative guards.

A concern for Memphis is their discipline. They are a high-foul team and just committed 26 last game, leading to 34 free-throw attempts for the Warriors. They should expect a physical interior battle against the Mavericks’ size, and they’ll do themselves a real favor if they can contest shots without sending their opponents to the line.

All things considered, it’s unlikely that either one of these teams beats or even gives a series to the Oklahoma City Thunder in the first round. Still, Memphis’ constant shortcomings against winning teams combined with the Mavs playing like a respectable outfit makes at least a positive showing a bit of a requirement for the Grizzlies, who may look to shake up their roster during the offseason.

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Mavericks vs. Grizzlies Betting Pick

• Mavericks vs. Kings pick: Mavericks ML (+200) at BetMGM 

Morant is still a game-time decision, which doesn’t bode well for his individual player props or his team’s bottom line. On the other hand, the Mavs finally have a rare bit of momentum and are packed for eight days, meaning they expect to fly to OKC for the first round of the playoffs.

Davis has the ability to dominate this game. He was great on Wednesday despite inefficient shooting, and he should only get more comfortable as he gets more reps with his new teammates.

The Mavs’ perimeter players are going to knock down their shots, but they should be afforded an extra half-step because of Dallas’ interior focus. There’s lots of value on the team with better vibes, a better bill of health, and one that hasn’t constantly come up short against strong opponents, so I believe we will witness the first 10 seed to ever win back-to-back Play-In games.

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How to Watch Mavericks vs. Grizzlies on 4/18/25

• When: Friday, April 18 @ 8:30/9:30 CT/ET

• Where: FedEx Forum, Memphis, TN

• TV: ESPN