Dallas Mavericks vs. Los Angeles Clippers Prediction and Odds for April 21: A Rivalry Renewed

The Dallas Mavericks are going on the road for Game One of their series against the Los Angeles Clippers in the first round of the Western Conference Playoffs.

The Mavs faced the Clippers in the postseason in 2020 and 2021, both times resulting in elimination.  They’re back for revenge with a team that’s playing outstanding basketball and the best supporting cast Luka Doncic has had in his NBA career.

Mavericks vs. Clippers Betting Odds for Sunday, April 21

The Mavs are 48-34 (58.5 percent) against the spread, the second-best mark in the NBA. They went 19-4 (82.6 percent) ATS as a road favorite and covered in 16 of their final 20 games.

The Clippers are 38-44 (46.3 percent) ATS and 1-4 (20 percent) ATS as a home underdog. They covered in one of their last five and two of three meetings with Dallas.

Odds from BetMGM Sportsbook. Use our BetMGM promo code for a bet $5, get a $150 bonus.

Mavericks vs. Clippers Prediction

Dallas Mavericks Preview

The Mavericks were the best team in basketball to finish the year bar none. Although they were only 12th in net rating (+3.7) post-All-Star break, they closed out their regular-season campaign by winning 16 of their last 20 games, and two of those losses came when they partially rested or completely sat their starters.

The Mavs posted the best defensive rating in basketball during that same 20-game stretch, a drastic turnaround for a team that ranked 19th in the same category before the All-Star break.

The front office deserves a tremendous amount of praise for reconstructing the roster just before the trade deadline. The acquisitions of Daniel Gafford and P.J. Washington gave Dallas more flexibility and versatility on both ends, in addition to more height and athleticism.

Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving rightfully draw lots of praise for their outstanding performances this season—but the contributions from their interior players cannot be overlooked.

The combination of Gafford and rookie Dereck Lively II averaged 20 points, 13.8 rebounds, and 2.7 blocks in 45 minutes and on 76 percent shooting. Both are also intelligent spatially and do a great job freeing up the perimeter players with crunching screens.

That said, the star guards are still the headliners. Doncic averaged 33.9 points, 9.8 assists, and 9.2 rebounds on a career-best 38.2 percent three-point shooting, while Irving averaged 25.6 points, 5.2 assists, and 5.0 rebounds on 41.1 percent from deep.

Dallas is about average in three-point efficiency but made the sixth-most triples per game after the All-Star break. They also increased their pace compared to years past and played at the seventh-fastest tempo.

Los Angeles Clippers Preview

The Clippers had a strange season. A horrible start flowed immediately into a stretch during which they went 26-5, only for them to finish the year 17-16 over their last 33 games.

LA’s post-All-Star numbers are unsettling for a team with championship aspirations. They ranked 18th in net rating (-0.5) and 22nd in points allowed per 100 possessions. They also went from leading the league in three-point percentage to shooting just 35.6 percent, 20th in the league over the last couple of months.

Kawhi Leonard did not play in the final eight games of the regular season and is questionable ahead of Game One. LA went an even 7-7 without him in the lineup and lost him to a knee injury after two games in the first round a year ago.  

Russell Westbrook returned from a broken hand injury near the end of March. The Clips went 6-8 without him but won over two-thirds of games with him.

Although the Mavericks are (expectedly) worse on the road than they are at home, the Clippers had a worse net rating in their home arena than they did on the road (+3.6 to +3.1). 

LA also finished with a 55 percent win rate in clutch games, whereas Dallas’ 71.9 was the second-best in basketball. The Clippers also finished 4.9 points per 100 possessions behind the Mavs in clutch net rating.

The Clippers have a decided advantage in bench production. Norman Powell was a top contender for the Sixth Man of the Year award for a large chunk of the season and averaged 13.9 points on 43.5 percent three-point shooting. Westbrook also provides a burst of energy and will push the pace in transition while also accepting a large defensive responsibility. 

Mavericks vs. Clippers Betting Pick

Leonard’s status will play a major factor in any potential line movement leading up to tip-off.

It’s always possible the Mavericks regress to the mean and look nothing like they did to finish the season, especially after a week off—but the way they played combined with their roster and level of execution lead us to believe that they will win this series in a hurry.

LA doesn’t seem to have a ton of chemistry, has a notorious playoff disappearing act in James Harden, and injury concerns in Leonard and Paul George. Doncic and Irving should be able to feast in this game and series, which they should start with a victory. 

Mavericks vs. Clippers pick: Mavericks -1.5 (-110) at BetMGM

How to Watch Mavericks vs. Clippers on 4/21/24

• When: Sunday, April 21 @ 12:30/3:30 p.m. PT/ET

• Where: crypto.com Arena, Los Angeles, CA

• TV: ABC

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