Mavericks vs. Celtics Prediction and Odds for February 6: Davis Set for Dallas Debut?

The Dallas Mavericks (26-25) will take on the Boston Celtics (36-15) in an NBA Finals rematch on Thursday night.

While these two teams fought for a championship less than a year ago, the pieces on the chess board are completely different following last weekend’s news that Luka Doncic had been traded to the Los Angeles Lakers for Anthony Davis, Max Christie, and a pick.

Boston enters the matchup riding a four-game winning streak and took down the Eastern Conference-leading Cleveland Cavaliers in their last game, while the Mavs could roll out Davis for the first time. 

Here, we will preview the matchup and share our best Mavericks vs. Celtics betting picks for Thursday.

Mavericks vs. Celtics Betting Odds for Thursday, February 6

The Mavericks are 24-25-2 (49 percent) against the spread, 11-14-2 (44 percent) ATS on the road, and 12-12-1 (50 percent) ATS as an underdog. 

The Celtics are 20-30-1 (40 percent) ATS, 9-16 (36 percent) ATS at home, and 19-28-1 (40.4 percent) ATS as a favorite.

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Mavericks vs. Celtics Prediction

Dallas Mavericks Preview

Could today be the day? Davis is officially questionable because of an abdominal injury he suffered back in LA.

Christie already made his first Mavs appearance in their last game, a 118-116 loss to the Philadelphia 76ers. He played 32 minutes off the bench and had 15 points, nine rebounds, and three assists, and shot 4-4 from three.

Swapping Doncic and Davis completely changed the complexion of Dallas’ team. Their frontcourt lineup of Davis, PJ Washington, and Daniel Gafford immediately makes them one of the three best interior defenses in basketball. They will also force tons of mismatches on account of their size, and should dominate the offensive glass.

That said, there’s now an immense burden on Kyrie Irving to handle the ball on the perimeter and to set the table for his teammates. Klay Thompson is unique because he rarely dribbles or passes the ball, and he cannot be trusted to handle the ball despite being a shooting guard.

Dallas’ inside-out approach flies in the face of the trends of modern basketball, but it will pose an issue for many teams built to stretch the floor and play switch-heavy defense. The worst thing that could happen against a team with this size is for the defense to get into rotation, and now Gafford is running to the rim with a small stepping into the dunker spot, or Davis finds himself with a guard on him following a 1-4 pick-and-roll.

The Mavs posted a record of 13-16 without Doncic on the floor. They ranked 15th in offensive and 25th in defensive rating over their last 10 games, during which they went 4-6 and posted a net rating of -4.7 (21st).

They’re also just 12-15 on the road. 

Keep an eye on Christie’s role off the bench. He averaged 11.9 points and 3.4 rebounds on 41.3 percent three-point shooting over his last 20 games, and he could provide a significant boost to Dallas’ reserves.

Boston Celtics Preview

Remember when the Celtics were playing .500-level basketball and “in trouble?” Those times are over.

Boston’s four-game winning streak included three wins on the road, a 26-point comeback against the 76ers, and a seven-point win against the 40-10 Cavaliers.

Strangely, the Celtics have been better on the road than they have been at home, where they’re 16-9. At the same time, their overall net rating of +8.9 rises to +9.1 at home, which means they register more blowout wins and close losses, even though they have a lower winning percentage at home (.64) than they do on the road (.77).

Checking in with the C’s over recent weeks, they ranked 11th in offensive and fourth in defensive rating over their last 10 games, resulting in a net rating of +6.9 (seventh).

There’s been no deviation in the course for Boston’s offense, which is still going bombs-away from three. They ranked ninth in the league over the last 10 games with a 37.7 three-point percentage and are 12th for the year, though their 17.8 made threes per game is still well ahead of the second-place Cavs (16.2).

Boston’s interior defense will be challenged in this matchup, particularly if Davis suits up. However, they allowed the fifth-lowest shooting percentage at the rim and are third in effective field goal percentage allowed.

We’re also yet to mention that the Celtics beat the Mavericks by 15 points in Dallas less than two weeks ago. Irving led the Mavs with 22 points and no other starter cracked 20 points, while Jayson Tatum, Derrick White, and Jaylen Brown combined for 69 points.

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Mavericks vs. Celtics Betting Pick

• Mavericks vs. Celtics pick: Mavericks +10.5 (-115) at BetMGM 

The Mavericks are completely changing their identity and will need time to adjust and become a cohesive team night-in and night-out. However, their metamorphosis could create a beautifully dominant roster that imposes its physical will and leads with physicality.

Boston is getting hot from three, which is never a good sign for their opponents. They also just beat this team and still have confidence from taking them down in the Finals last summer.

We’d expect the Celtics to win this game, but if Davis plays, we believe the Mavs can stay within single-digits and make this a competitive affair.

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How to Watch Mavericks vs. Celtics on 2/6/25

• When: Thursday, February 6 @ 7:30 p.m. ET

• Where: TD Garden, Boston, MA

• TV: TNT/truTV/Max

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