Mavericks vs. Celtics Game Five NBA Finals Prediction: Can Dallas Force a Home Game Six?

The Boston Celtics are back in their building to host the Dallas Mavericks in Game Five of the NBA Finals as they look to win their first ring since 2008.

The Mavericks flat-out annihilated the Celtics in Game Four, beating them by 38 points and winning every quarter by at least six points. Their 122 points marked the first time they scored more than 100 in the series, and the balanced effort was a promising sign just before heading back out onto the road.

The Celtics were excellent in the first three games of the series and can still comfortably follow the same game plan—they just need to execute. They’ve been able to respond to runs and have won the clutch battles, which was one of their biggest concerns entering the series.

Here, we will analyze the betting odds and share our favorite pick for Game Five of the Mavericks vs. Celtics NBA Finals on Monday.

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Mavericks vs. Celtics Game Five Betting Odds for Monday, June 17

The Mavericks are 60-41-1 (59.4 percent) against the spread and 14-12-1 (53.9 percent) ATS as a road underdog. They’re 1-2-1 (33.3 percent) ATS in the Finals with their lone cover coming in Game Four, and are 12-8-1 (60 percent) ATS in the playoffs.

The Celtics are 50-44-6 (53.2 percent) ATS and 27-21-3 (56.3 percent) ATS as a home favorite. They’re 4-1-1 (80 percent) ATS in all regular and postseason matchups with the Mavs and are 9-8-1 (52.9 percent) ATS in the playoffs.

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Mavericks vs. Celtics Game Five Prediction

Dallas Mavericks Preview

The Mavericks finally made their presence felt in the series by routing the Celtics 122-84 in Game Four. They shot 50.5 percent from the field and 40.5 percent from three while holding the Celtics to 36.3 percent and 34.1 percent in the same categories. 

Luka Doncic led the effort with 29 points, five rebounds, and five assists despite going 0-8 from three-point land. Dereck Lively II also had another excellent game off the bench and introduced a new wrinkle to Dallas’ game plan by spotting up and then drilling a corner three.

The Mavs’ problem has not been their ability to hang in games, it’s been their failure to seize opportunities and close the deal down the stretch. That’s totally against the fabric they were built on, which is that they should always feel comfortable in close games or having to come from behind (seeing as they led the league in clutch win percentage).

Dallas is a ridiculous -62.6 in clutch net rating during the Finals, a complete contrast to the +20.5 it posted during the regular season. They also made just 9.3 threes per game during the Finals despite ranking second in makes per game during the regular season.

The key for the Mavericks will be to get off to a hot start and keep their foot on the gas, much the same way they did during Game Four. Their defense has done enough to get by and was outstanding in their lone series win, but it’s their offense that must be ready to carry the burden on the road.

Tim Hardaway Jr. is expected to get real playing time after he drilled five fourth-quarter threes in Game Four. He was the team’s third-leading scorer but has been close to unplayable for the last few weeks, but Dallas is going to need his offensive production.

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Boston Celtics Preview

The Celtics played a near-perfect series through the first three games when it comes to executing a game plan. They completely took away Dallas’ corner three-point attempts and neutralized their lob threats, while also stifling Kyrie Irving and leaving Doncic to fend for himself.

Their Game Four loss, while egregious and disgraceful, was somewhat expected. The Mavs knew they were just one loss away from having to clean out their locker for the summer, while the Celtics could take the night off and feel confident taking a 3-1 lead back to their arena.

Jayson Tatum was the only Celtics starter to score more than 10 points but also finished with an astounding -33 in plus/minus. His shooting woes continued as he went 1/4 from three and is now shooting 29 percent from range in the Finals and in the playoffs as a whole.

With Kristaps Porzingis unlikely to play again for the remainder of the series, the pressure falls onto Boston’s starting five. Joe Mazzulla does not want to play his bench heavy minutes, which means a player like Al Horford is going to have to be okay with being switched onto Doncic and Irving for 35-40 minutes per game.

Even though the Celtics have not shot the ball well from three, they’ve continually found themselves getting better perimeter production than Dallas while also controlling the boards. They don’t need to change their approach and just need to execute to capture their first championship since 2008.

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Mavericks vs. Celtics Game Five Betting Pick

The Celtics dominated the Mavs in every facet during the first three games, so it’s important to not become consumed by Dallas’ Game Four display.

Doncic’s improved defensive effort went a long way toward the Mavs taking Game Four. It’s incumbent upon him to set the tone defensively from the jump, and just maybe, Dallas will take another step toward pulling the first 0-3 comeback in NBA history. 

We wouldn’t bet on it though, because we’re taking the Celtics to win and cover. Dallas is still desperate for points even on nights when Doncic, Irving, and Lively have it going, and Boston’s timely scoring should prove to be the difference.

• Mavericks vs. Celtics NBA Finals Game Five pick: Celtics -6.5 (-115) at BetMGM

How to Watch Mavericks vs.Celtics Game Five

• When: Monday, June 17 @ 8:30 p.m. ET

• Where: TD Garden, Boston, MA

• TV: ABC

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