The Los Angeles Lakers will finish their five-game road trip with a matchup against the Memphis Grizzlies on Wednesday night.
LA lost three of its last four after starting the year 3-0, while the Grizzlies are yet to win or lose more than two straight games and are coming off a 106-104 loss to the Brooklyn Nets.
Although the two teams are not local or divisional rivals, they do not like each other. LeBron James and Anthony Davis regularly jaw with Ja Morant, Desmond Bane, and Jaren Jackson Jr., which adds an extra layer of excitement for tonight’s face-off.
Here, we will analyze the odds and share our favorite Lakers vs. Grizzlies betting picks.
The Lakers are 4-3 (5.71 percent) against the spread, 2-1 (66.7 percent) ATS as an underdog, and 1-3 (25 percent) ATS on the road.
The Grizzlies are 3-5 (37.5 percent) ATS, 1-4 (20 percent) ATS as a favorite, and 2-2 (50 percent) ATS at home.
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Teams | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
---|---|---|---|
Los Angeles Lakers | +1.5 (-115) | -105 | Over 230.5 (-105) |
Memphis Grizzlies | -1.5 (-105) | -115 | Under 230.5 (-115) |
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Anthony Davis summed up his team’s early-season form after a loss to the Detroit Pistons on Tuesday, saying that they can look like championship contenders or the worst team in the league depending on the night.
A lot of JJ Redick’s great coaching early in the season has already been forgotten. LA’s offensive system, while intricate and far more advanced than those under Darvin Ham, is antiquated in that the Lakers take a league-low 29.7 three-point attempts per game.
LA is also 10th in rebound rate and 15th in offensive rebound rate, both of which are well below what they need to be to make up for the absence of the three ball. That’s combined with them ranking 25th in defensive rating and being outscored by 2.4 points per 100 possessions.
Davis has been a man on a mission thus far, leading the league in scoring at 32.6 points per night on 57.1 percent shooting, to go with 11.6 rebounds and 1.7 blocks per night. However, LeBron James is down to 21.9 points per game, and D’Angelo Russell is shooting just 30.8 percent from deep.
The purple and gold’s lack of depth is also an enormous issue. They’re 23rd in bench net rating and don’t have a single reserve averaging more than 7.3 points per game.
Redick updated the LA offense but now needs to find a way to change the shot profiles of players who are used to drifting toward the hoop while also building connectivity on the defensive end. And even if those two things happen, they’ll be outmanned against most of the top teams in the league.
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Taylor Jenkins is taking an interesting approach to the early-season schedule. He opted not to play any of his players, including his stars, for more than 30 minutes per night. Santi Aldama also leads all Grizzlies players at 29.8 average minutes of game time.
Jenkins’ experiment has not resulted in total failure—far from it. Memphis ranks 10th in offensive rating and 14th in defensive rating despite losing Morant, Jackson, and Bane to injuries at different points.
All in all, 12 players averaged at least 14 minutes per game for the Grizz. Morant leads them all with 20.7 points, 9.7 assists, and 5.1 rebounds per night, while Jackson and Bane are close behind in scoring. Rookie first-round center Zach Edey also just had the best game of his professional career, going 11/12 for 25 points, 12 rebounds, and four blocks in 29 minutes against the Los Angeles Clippers.
Memphis is also not a high-volume three-point team, ranking 25th in attempts per game (32.8). They’ll also have a tough time knocking down shots against an LA team that ranks eighth in three-point percentage allowed (34.0).
The rotation of fresh bodies and ability to move Jackson Jr. from center to power forward resulted in Memphis climbing to fourth in rebound rate. Their biggest area of improvement, as far as what is controllable, will be turnovers, where they are 23rd in overall rate.
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Lakers vs. Grizzlies pick: Lakers +1.5 (-115) at BetMGM
Both teams play inside-out and are experimenting with new philosophies from their coaches, one rookie and one established. LA also relies heavily on its starting lineup, whereas Memphis is content going deep into its bench.
As we mentioned, the players on these teams share a mutual distaste for one another. LA is angry coming off of its loss and has a chance to right its ship with a win on Wednesday, whereas Memphis is still trying to figure out exactly who it is.
Any team that regularly attacks Anthony Davis at the rim is playing into the Lakers’ hands. As such, we like LA to bounce back on the road.
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When: Wednesday, Nov. 6 @ 7:00/8:00 p.m. CT/ET
Where: FedEx Forum, Memphis, TN
TV: NBA League Pass, YouTube TV
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