Knicks vs. Celtics Prediction: Can NY Lock Down the Three Seed?

The New York Knicks (47-32) will secure the third seed in the Eastern Conference if they win out, but standing in their way on Thursday night are the league-leading Boston Celtics (62-17).

The Knicks won three of their last four and are a half-game ahead of the freefalling Cleveland Cavaliers. They are yet to beat the C’s in four matchups but are listed as the Vegas favorites because of Boston’s lengthy injury report.

The Celtics lost to the Milwaukee Bucks by 13 points their last time out, bringing an end to a five-game win streak just before. They’re an astonishing 35-3 at home and have had the one seed locked up for a while as they hold a 13.5-game lead on the second-place Bucks.

Here, we will go over the betting odds and share our favorite pick for the Knicks vs. Celtics matchup.

Knicks vs. Celtics Betting Odds for Thursday, April 11

The Knicks are 42-34-3 (55.3 percent) against the spread and 11-5-1 (68.8 percent) ATS as a road favorite. They covered in seven of their last 10 but are 0-4 ATS against Boston.

The Celtics are 40-35-4 (53.3 percent) ATS and have not been a home underdog all season. They did not cover in three straight or six of their last eight games.

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Knicks vs. Celtics Prediction

New York Knicks Preview

The Knicks are one of the most relentless teams in basketball. They reconfigured their offense to play at a faster tempo and with a smaller lineup after months of injuries but still have the intensity and brute force they’ve become known for under Tom Thibodeau.

OG Anunoby returned to the lineup against the Chicago Bulls last Friday after only appearing in three games in the two-and-a-half months prior. He averaged 13.3 points on 40 percent three-point shooting and maintained his incredible streak of having a positive plus/minus in every game he played in a Knicks uniform.

Anunoby’s reintegration will play a massive role in the Knicks returning to having an elite defense. Although they rank second and only .2 points per 100 possessions off of the first-place Indiana Pacers in offensive rating over the last 10 games, they fell to 20th in defensive rating during that same span.

NY rebounds the ball well and can muddy up the game. They only rank 20th in three-point percentage allowed over the last 10 games, but they held opponents to the seventh-fewest attempts per game during that time as their strategy has been to run teams off of the perimeter.

While it’s still strange to see Boston be a home underdog, New York has the sixth-best road net rating (+3.5) of every team.

Jalen Brunson is the man to watch. He scored 43 and 45 points in back-to-back games and averaged 35.6 points and 9.6 assists in April. He also managed 34 points and nine assists the last time he faced the C’s on Feb. 24.

Boston Celtics Preview

The Celtics are a bit of a mystery heading into Thursday’s matchup—not because of questions of who or what they are, but because it’s unclear who is going to be on the court.

Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown, Kristaps Porzingis, Jrue Holiday, Al Horford, and Xavier Tillman are all in jeopardy of missing the game. Porzingis and Horford did not play in the team’s loss to the Bucks on Tuesday and seem the most likely to miss the matchup, and more updates are to come before tip-off.

At full strength, there’s no doubt that the Celtics were the best team in the regular season. They had more 30-point leads than 10-point deficits and posted a league-best +11.7 net rating through total domination offensively and defensively. 

Boston takes and makes more threes than any team in the league and does so efficiently, sinking 38.8 percent of their attempts. They’re also exceptional at hunting and exploiting mismatches in the post, a lot of that coming on the shoulders of Porzingis. 

The C’s held the Knicks to 104 or fewer points in three of their four previous matchups, though that will be tough for them to replicate with the way the latter’s offense is humming as of late.

Tatum, if he plays, is worth keeping an eye on. Despite being a top-five MVP candidate all year, he averaged just 22 points and seven rebounds in April and only scored 19 points in the last matchup between the two.

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Knicks vs. Celtics Betting Pick

The Knicks are better than a half-strength Celtics team but 0-4 against the healthy C’s, which makes this matchup nearly impossible to accurately predict until the final injury report is released.

Our best advice: wait until it’s clear who is playing and who isn’t. Porzingis is arguably the most influential player on the list because of his ability to hunt mismatches against the smaller Knicks defenders.

If the Boston stars are out, we like the Knicks to continue their momentum with Anunoby back in the fold. If Boston is fully healthy, then we’d be silly not to take them as home underdogs.

• Knicks vs. Celtics pick: Knicks (-2.5 tentatively) at BetMGM Sportsbook

How to Watch Knicks vs. Celtics

• When: Thursday, April 11 @ 7:30 p.m. ET

• Where: TD Garden, Boston, MA

• TV: TNT

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