Kings vs. Lakers Prediction
Sacramento Kings Preview
The Kings are an interesting team to evaluate. They have tons of selling points but also several drawbacks, which makes them a somewhat matchup-dependent prospect when it comes to ranking their place in the NBA hierarchy.
Right off the bat, Sacramento is excellent in the pick-and-roll. They average the second-highest points per possession when the roll man, usually Domantas Sabonis, ends up with the ball, which speaks to the improved playmaking of De’Aaron Fox and Sixth Many of the Year candidate Malik Monk.
That said, the Kings only find themselves in this position on 4.8% of possessions, the fourth-lowest percentage in the league. Instead, they run actions involving hand-offs on more than 10% of possessions, nearly 4% higher than the second-closest team. These result in an average of one point per possession, which ranks eighth.
Sac-Town hung around the middle of the league in both offensive and defensive efficiency for the majority of the season—but since the All-Star break, the team ranks sixth in points per 100 possessions and 28th in points allowed per 100 possessions.
The team makes 14.6 threes per game (fourth) while shooting a modest 36.9% from deep since the All-Star break. They don’t command the boards well but do have the league’s leading rebounder, Sabonis, anchoring the interior.
Sacramento is strangely better on the road than at home. They also rank first in opponents’ second-chance points but are in the bottom 10 in points off turnovers allowed and opponents’ points in the paint.
Keep an eye on Fox and Sabonis. Both are coming off strong months and averaged a combined 53 points, 20 rebounds, and 12.5 assists in two matchups with LA.
Los Angeles Lakers Preview
The Lakers seem to have finally found and settled into their rotation, with Rui Hachimura joining Austin Reaves and D’Angelo Russell in the starting lineup alongside LeBron James and Anthony Davis.
Although it is just a seven-game sample size, and the Lakers are only 4-3 (4-2 when LeBron plays), the purple and gold are seventh in offensive efficiency since the All-Star break. Troublingly, however, they’re 24th in rebound rate and 27th in defensive efficiency over the same period.
Let’s start with the positives. LA is also in the top-10 in assist-to-turnover ratio and three-point percentage (39.3%). They’ve also been a solid home team all year, going 22-10 in their building despite ranking just 14th in home differential per 100 possessions (+4.8).
D’Angelo Russell’s improved play has been a major catalyst in the Lakers turning from a defensive-minded team to one with the firepower to go shot-for-shot with most opponents. He averaged 21.8 points and 6.6 assists on 43.4% three-point shooting over his last 20 games, forcing opponents to stretch out on the weak side and creating driving lanes for the rest of his teammates.
With all of that said, the Lakers cannot reach their ultimate goal if they anchor down on the defensive end. Davis is one of the three or four best rim protectors in the league and the team’s size and length give them the potential to win defensive struggles, but they haven’t (nor have they really needed to) applied the necessary effort because of their offensive growth.
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Kings vs. Lakers Betting Pick
The Kings did not look great in their last few games, and although they beat the Minnesota Timberwolves, that was in a game in which Anthony Edwards only played one half of basketball. Conversely, the Lakers have ripped off a few impressive wins, including a dominant win over the Oklahoma City Thunder and a comeback against the Los Angeles Lakers.
As great as LA’s offense has been, they don’t want to get into a shootout with the Kings, who have plenty of players that can get hot in a hurry. As such, defense needs to be a priority for the home team.
Although the Kings have been a tough matchup for LA in recent years, their confidence and track record at home is enough reason to trust them in this spot given the low line.
How to Watch Kings vs. Lakers on 3/6/24
When: Wednesday, 7:30/10:30 p.m. PT/ET
Where: crypto.com Arena, Los Angeles, CA
TV: NBA League Pass
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