Miami Heat vs Toronto Raptors: Toronto Won Their Previous Meeting Against Miami

• The Miami Heat aim to bounce back from a near 30-point blowout in their last game
• The Toronto Raptors have won two games in a row
• Toronto won their previous meeting against Miami, 104-112

The Miami Heat and Toronto Raptors are similar teams who thrive off the production of their defense. The Heat are seventh in the Eastern Conference, owning a 40-35 overall record and a 15-21 road record - while leading the Raptors by three games. The Raptors are ninth in the Eastern Conference with a 37-38 overall record and a solid 25-14 home record.

The Miami Heat and Toronto Raptors will play for the fourth and last time in the regular season schedule. The last time these two met, the Raptors won 104-112, grabbing the lead in the season series 2-1. The Raptors will host their final meeting at Scotiabank Arena in Toronto, Ontario, Canada.

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Head-to-Head: Miami Heat vs Toronto Raptors

Injury Report

Spread: Miami Heat +3.0 (-110) @ DraftKings Sportsbook

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Miami Heat ATS Record: 27-45-3

Toronto Raptors ATS Record: 37-36-2

The Toronto Raptors and Miami Heat are attempting to make a late-season push into the top six of the Eastern Conference. Miami is seventh in the East, but they're coming off a loss while going 6-4 over their last ten games. On the other hand, Toronto is ninth in the East after going 5-5 over their last ten games, but they have won two games in a row.

The Heat are a defense-first team that allows just 109.9 points per game (2nd in the NBA) while forcing 15.8 turnovers per game (3rd in the NBA) and holding teams to just 41.9 rebounds per game (5th in the NBA). Their defense failed them in their last game, a loss to the Brooklyn Nets, where the Heat allowed 129 points on 49.4% shooting from the field and 45.0% from three-point range.

The Raptors are similarly focused on the defensive end to the Heat, holding teams to 111.9 points per game (5th in the NBA), forcing 16.6 turnovers per game (2nd in the NBA), and leading the NBA in steals per game at 9.4 (1st in the NBA). Toronto's offense could have been better through their two-game win streak, but they have held their opponents to just 100.5 points per game on 45.3% from the field and 36.1% from three while forcing 19.0 turnovers per game.

The Heat and Raptors have put on a competitive series all year, but the Heat have the edge in this matchup. It doesn't project to be a high-scoring game, but despite Toronto's win streak, they haven't performed excellently despite the low caliber of their opponents. Add that Toronto is missing 17.7 points per game from the injured Gary Trent Jr., and the Miami Heat's defense and individual threats should earn them victory.

Key Players & Stats

Toronto Raptors point guard Fred VanVleet has been excellent as he's been pushing to earn his team a place in the NBA Playoffs. Through his last five games, where the Raptors have gone 3-2, VanVleet has posted averages of 25.0 points, 8.0 assists, 2.0 steals, and 3.4 threes per game on 41.8% from the field and 37.0% from three. He's struggled from the field against the Heat this season, shooting just 32.6% in three games, so VanVleet will need to maintain his offensive form if the Raptors want any chance of taking down the Heat.

Kyle Lowry has welcomed a role coming off the bench after returning from injury, but he'll need to be more productive leading the second unit if Miami hopes to stave off the rising Raptors. After posting just three points and four assists in the Heat's most recent 29-point loss to the Nets, Lowry must bounce back against his former team. Lowry is always a capable three-point shooting option. Still, if he can hit or surpass his season average of two threes on 35.1% efficiency while coming off the bench, the Heat will be in an excellent position to overcome the Raptors' defense.

Total: Over 218.5 (-110) @ FanDuel Sportsbook

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Two of the lowest-scoring teams in the NBA face off on Tuesday when the Toronto Raptors and Miami Heat play. The Heat have a combined points average of 219.0 per game on a minus-0.8 differential. The Toronto Raptors average a combined 224.9 points total on a plus-1.1 differential.

Through three games against each other, the Heat and Raptors have averaged a combined 208.3 points per game while clearing 218.5 points twice. Through their last five games, the Raptors and Heat have cleared 218.5 by an average of 12.6 and 6.1 points, respectively.

Take the over, as both teams are in high-scoring form, and the pace should increase with two units so talented at defending the halfcourt.

How to Watch Miami Heat vs Toronto Raptors

• Where: Scotiabank Arena, Toronto, Ontario, Canada
• When: 7:30 PM EST, Tuesday, March 28, 2023
• How to Watch: TNT, TSN
• Streaming: NBA League Pass