The Hawks without Young are like the solar system without a sun. He is at the center of everything they do offensively, creates shots for himself and his teammates, and is the embodiment of James Harden’s “I am the system” comments.
With Young on the floor, the Hawks have been varyingly impressive on offense. Their offensive numbers fell as the season progressed, but the 25-year-old still averaged 26.9 points and 10.8 assists.
Atlanta played without Young in its last game, a 122-107 loss to the Sacramento Kings. They only managed 19 assists and had 12 turnovers compared to season averages of 25.4 and 14 respectively, or a 1.58 assist-to-turnover ratio compared to their usual 1.81.
The Hawks’ primary challenge is going to be creating enough space on the perimeter to take and make threes without Young’s gravity forcing opposing defenses to shade in his direction. Surprisingly, they took just about as many threes as they normally do and made 36.7% of their attempts (more than their 36.1% season average) in four games without Young this season.
While the offense has been somewhat of a hit, the defense has been anything but. Atlanta is 26th in def. rating, putting it ahead of only the Indiana Pacers, Washington Wizards, Detroit Pistons, and Charlotte Hornets. They also rank 27th in opponent fastbreak points and 28th in both opponent points in the paint and second-chance points allowed.
The Hawks have the personnel to be a strong defensive outfit but just haven’t found a structure or the focus to bring that to fruition. They’re also fairly poor on the glass and don’t do a great job limiting opponents to one shot per possession.
On the other side, the Warriors are readying to play just their second game with Draymond Green since his suspension. They lost his return game to the Memphis Grizzlies, 116-107, and dropped four of their last five outings. They’re also just 11-11 at home after they made the Chase Center a fortress a year ago.
The Warriors have uncharacteristic offensive issues stemming from both their system and failure to develop their personnel. They’re taking far fewer threes per game than in years past, have lost Klay Thompson and Andrew Wiggins to declining performances, and are having to rely on young players they either lost the confidence of or didn’t help grow enough.
Golden State always had quietly impressive defenses during its dynastic years. This time, however, it ranks 24th in def. rating and is dead last in points allowed per 100 possessions in 2024.
The Dubs are secretly great on the offensive glass because of their guards’ and wings’ activity, but they aren’t anything special when it comes to defensive rebounding.
The extra rest could work in a couple of ways for the Warriors. They could come out with extra energy and a new focus after their time away, or they could be totally out of their rhythm and look as sloppy as they did in their recent losses.
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Hawks vs. Warriors Prediction and Betting Pick
Although the Hawks’ record is worse than the Warriors’, their -2.4 road net rating is nearly the same as GSW’s -2.3 home rating.
Atlanta hasn’t been a playoff team with or without Young but has been formidable. The Warriors, on the other hand, have won games but don’t look like they can blow anyone out.
We’re of the opinion that nine days off will lead to the Warriors missing their offensive rhythm and that the Hawks can pull off one of their rare covers this season. They’ll need to continue to find success from the perimeter and pay more attention to the glass, but they’re getting an opponent that’s been just as inconsistent as they have.
Hawks vs. Warriors pick: Hawks +7.5 at BetMGM
How to Watch Hawks vs. Warriors
When: Wednesday, Jan. 24 @ 7:00/10:00 p.m. PT/ET
Where: Chase Center, San Francisco, CA
TV: NBA League Pass
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