Hawks vs Heat Prediction: Miami Will Have Home Court Advantage When They Face the Hawks

• The Atlanta Hawks closed the season on a two-game losing streak
• The Miami Heat found a win in their last game of the regular season
• The Miami Heat won their season series against the Atlanta Hawks 3-1

The seventh seed in the 2023 NBA Playoffs is on the line when the Miami Heat host the Atlanta Hawks. The Miami Heat finished seventh in the East with a 44-38 overall record and a 27-14 home record. The Atlanta Hawks finished the season eighth in the East, with a 41-41 overall record and a 17-24 road record.

The Miami Heat won their regular season series against the Atlanta Hawks, 3-1. Their most recent meeting was a 128-130 Heat victory on March 6th. Hosted at Kaseya Center in Miami, Florida, the Heat will have home court advantage when they face the Hawks!

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Head-to-Head: Atlanta Hawks vs Miami Heat

Injury Report

Spread: Miami Heat -5.0 (-110) @ Caesars Sportsbook

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Atlanta Hawks ATS Record: 36-45-1

Miami Heat ATS Record: 30-49-3

The Atlanta Hawks and Miami Heat kick off the Eastern Conference NBA Play-In Tournament! The Miami Heat closed the season on a 6-4 run over their last ten games, earning themselves a 44-38 overall record and seventh place in the East. The Atlanta Hawks went 5-5 to close out their last ten games, fittingly earning them a 41-41 record and the eighth seed in the East.

The Hawks are one of the league's most offense-biased teams, averaging 118.4 points per game (3rd in the NBA) on 48.3% from the field (9th in the NBA) but are allowing 118.1 points (26th in the NBA) on 48.6% shooting (5th in the NBA). Atlanta must limit the Heat's offense, as they've allowed them to shoot 50.2% from the field through three games this regular season. Miami's defense is too good for the Hawks to compete in a scoring battle.

The Miami Heat are one of the NBA's premiere defensive teams, allowing just 109.8 points per game (2nd in the NBA) while forcing 15.7 turnovers (3rd in the NBA) and limiting teams to just 41.8 rebounds per game (6th in the NBA). The outlook for the Heat's offense is positive against the Hawks, as they score 4.2 more points than their regular season average when facing the Hawks while forcing 14.0 turnovers per game.

Tuesday evening's match will surely be an offense-defense affair, but we're taking the Miami Heat to overtake the Atlanta Hawks. Several All-Stars will compete on both sides, but Miami's veteran experience and defensive execution will be the difference in this matchup. Barring a revolution in Atlanta's defensive standards, Miami will have the edge.

Key Players & Stats

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All eyes are on Hawks guard Trae Young, averaging 26.2 points, 10.2 assists, and 3.0 rebounds on 42.9% from the field and 33.5% from the three-point range this season. However, the Heat have held Young to his second-lowest points average against any team this season, allowing him 19.8 points, 9.8 assists, and 3.3 rebounds on 35.6% from the field and 20.8% from three through four games. If Young can't find his offense, the Heat will likely stifle the Hawks.

Veteran forward Jimmy Butler hopes to lead his Miami Heat to their fourth-straight post-season after leading his team with 22.9 points, 5.9 rebounds, and 5.3 assists on 53.9% from the field and 35.0% from three. In three games against the Hawks, Butler posted 25.0 points, 8.0 rebounds, and 6.3 assists on 63.2% from the field. Atlanta's defense struggled to contain Butler, and if he maintains that production, the Heat could cruise to victory.

Total: Under 226.5 (-110) @ PointsBet

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The Miami Heat and Atlanta Hawks compete on different ends of the scoring spectrum. Miami averaged a combined 219.3 points per game on a minus-0.3 differential. Atlanta averaged a combined 236.5 points per game on a plus-0.3 points differential.

To close out their last ten games of the season, the Heat averaged a combined 223.8 points per game on a plus-3.8 points differential. In Atlanta's previous ten matches, they averaged a combined 247.4 points per game on a plus-2.0 point differential.

We don't see the Hawks maintaining their incredible offensive form against Miami's stout perimeter defense. Through four games, the Heat and Hawks have combined to average 230.5 points per game, clearing 226.5 points in two of their four meetings. At full health, the Heat's two-way ability should limit the Hawks while producing an efficient offense.

How to Watch Atlanta Hawks vs Miami Heat

• Where: Kaseya Center, Miami, FL
• When: 7:30 PM EST, Tuesday, April 11, 2023
• How to Watch: TNT
• Streaming: AT&T TV Now, FuboTV, Hulu + Live TV, Sling TV, YoutTube TV