Grizzlies vs. Warriors Prediction and Odds: Can Injured Dubs Overcome Morant and Co.?

The Memphis Grizzlies (48-34) will head to the West Coast to face the Golden State Warriors (48-34) in the 7-8 matchup of the NBA Play-In Tournament.

The Grizzlies have not beaten a Western Conference opponent with a winning record since January 30. They were also just 1-3 against the Warriors, though they have the experience of beating them on the road in the Play-In in 2021.

The Warriors lost a heartbreaker in overtime to the Los Angeles Clippers in their final regular-season game on Sunday and now have to turn around for a do-or-die game two days later. Jimmy Butler and Stephen Curry are both expected to play through mild injuries, and they beat the Grizzlies by nine points exactly two weeks ago.

Here, I will break down the Grizzlies vs. Warriors odds and share my favorite picks for the Play-In Tournament matchup.

For more betting insights, check our daily NBA Player Prop and Best Bets.

Grizzlies vs. Warriors Betting Odds for Tuesday, April 15

The Grizzlies are 41-40-1 (50.6 percent) against the spread, 21-19-1 (52.5 percent) ATS on the road, and 12-17-1 (41.4 percent) ATS as an underdog.

The Warriors are 41-38-3 (51.9 percent) ATS, 18-22-1 (45 percent) ATS at home, and 26-27-3 (49.1 percent) ATS as a favorite.

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Grizzlies vs. Warriors Prediction

Memphis Grizzlies Preview

The Grizzlies are still a young team with a strong sense of belief—but if they want to beat the Warriors, they need to toss the last few months to the wayside.

As mentioned, they did not beat a winning team from their conference in two and a half months. They’re also 12-16 since the All-Star break and 4-5 since they fired coach Taylor Jenkins.

A clear shift in approach in the post-Jenkins era has put the ball back into the hands of Ja Morant full-time, intermingling a heavy dose of pick-and-roll with 7-foot-4 rookie Zach Edey. Since Jenkins was fired, Morant averaged 28.4 points, 6.3 assists, and 4.3 rebounds on 48.1 percent shooting, while Edey averaged 9.3 points, 13.4 rebounds, and 1.8 blocks.

The Grizzlies are often viewed as a strong defensive team. They held their opponents to the eighth-lowest true shooting percentage for the year, but they were only 15th in defensive rating over the final month of the regular season. 

Memphis is also just 20th in defensive rebound percentage, while the Warriors have proven themselves to be opportunistic on the offensive glass. That should serve as an alarm bell for Jaren Jackson Jr., who only had one rebound in consecutive games.

Looking at the Grizzlies’ four matchups with the Warriors, they posted a 112.7 defensive rating, 70.2 defensive rebound percentage, and 59.7 true shooting percentage, all of which nearly mirrored their season averages. They lost by five, eight, and nine, and their lone win came by a whopping 51 points on Dec. 19.

Memphis gave up 52 points to Curry when they met a couple of weeks ago, but it’s worth noting that Morant had 36 points on 63.6 percent shooting and averaged 30.2 points on 49.6 percent shooting over his last five games.

A win would set up a date with the Houston Rockets in the 2-vs.-7 matchup in the Western Conference Playoffs. A loss would relegate them to a second and final Play-In matchup with either the Sacramento Kings or Dallas Mavericks.

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Golden State Warriors Preview

The Warriors could not have had a worse break than they got. A loss to the Clippers meant that not only was their season mortality potentially larger than most expected, but also that they would not get the benefit of a week off. That’s a huge deal for a team that starts one 37- and two 35-year-olds, especially after an overtime battle in a playoff-like atmosphere.

The time has come for the Warriors to fall back on their years of postseason experience and work their way into the first round of the bracket so that they can still enjoy a brief period of rest. However, that will be easier said than done with Curry battling a thumb injury and Jimmy Butler suffering the effects of a thigh contusion suffered in overtime on Sunday.

The Warriors had the eighth-best net rating (-3.2) and went 15-14 in games against opponents with top-10 point differentials per Cleaning the Glass, which filters garbage time from its numbers. That was significantly better than the Grizzlies, who went 6-21 with a -7.0 net rating against this same classification of opponents.

Golden State faced Memphis one time with Butler in the lineup, the aforementioned nine-point win on April 1. That was part of a stretch in which the Dubs went 22-5 with both Curry and Butler in the starting lineup.

To sweeten the pot, much of the allure attributed to Butler revolves around his ability to elevate his play and his team in the postseason, Glimpses of that were revealed over the last three games, during which he averaged 27.3 points, 7.7 assists, and 3.3 rebounds on 60.5 percent shooting. He also closed Game 82 with 30 points and nine assists.

Butler’s greatest influence in this matchup could come from his ability to get to the free-throw line. He took nearly 70 percent of his total field goal attempts in Golden State in free-throws, while Memphis committed tons of fouls and allowed the second-most free-throws per game.

A burning question remains about what the Warriors will do with Morant. They don’t have a point-of-attack defender not named Butler, and he’ll often be spared from top defensive assignments until late in games. He also doesn’t have elite speed to counter Morant as a team would want from his primary defender. 

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Grizzlies vs. Warriors Betting Pick

• Grizzlies vs. Warriors pick: Grizzlies +6.5 (-102) at BetMGM 

The metrics all point to the Warriors being the far-and-away better team, but they are old, tired, and battered. The Grizzlies might not have the same performances under their belt or vibes permeating their building, but they are fearless and have a “nothing-to-lose” mindset.

These two teams have a mini-rivalry with one another and should make this a physical matchup. Both point guards were explosive in their last meeting and will have the ball in their hands, which makes them the points of emphasis for both offenses and defenses. 

I’d love it if the Grizzlies took an early 10-2ish lead so I could live bet the Warriors moneyline, given the former’s issues with beating top teams. I ultimately settled on the Grizzlies +6.5 purely because of the stakes of this game and because I believe this will be one of Memphis’ best showings in months.

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How to Watch Grizzlies vs. Warriors on 4/15/25

• When: Tuesday, April 15 @ 7:00/10:00 p.m. PT/ET

• Where: Chase Center, San Francisco, CA

• TV: TNT/truTV/Max