Dallas Mavericks vs. Los Angeles Clippers Game 5: Can Luka Bounce Back?

The Dallas Mavericks and Los Angeles Clippers are back in LA for Game Five on Wednesday with the series tied two games apiece.

The Mavericks rallied from 31 points down to take a fourth-quarter lead but ultimately did not secure a victory in Game Four, blowing a golden opportunity to seize momentum for a would-be closeout game. They split games with the Clippers in LA to start the series and now need to win at least one more road game to advance to the second round.

The Clippers won’t feel great after almost blowing an enormous lead, but they’ll be pleased with the performances of James Harden and Paul George, two notorious playoff disappearing acts. They’ll be without Kawhi Leonard (knee) but already won without him in this series.

Here, we will go over the betting odds and share our favorite pick for Game Five of the Mavericks vs. Clippers series.

Mavericks vs. Clippers Game Five Betting Odds for Wednesday, May 1

The Mavericks are 50-36 (58.1) percent against the spread, the second-best mark in basketball. They’re also 19-5 (79.2 percent) ATS as a road favorite and are 2-2 ATS in this series with both covers coming in wins.

The Clippers are 40-46 (46.5 percent) ATS and 2-4 (66.7 percent) ATS as a home underdog. They’re 4-3 ATS against the Mavs in the season series, having taken the regular-season matchup 2-1.

Odds from BetMGM Sportsbook. Use our BetMGM promo code WSNMGM for a bet $5, get a $150 bonus. Sign up at BetMGM Sportsbook here.

Mavericks vs. Clippers Game Five Prediction

Dallas Mavericks Preview

The Mavericks finished the regular season as the hottest team in basketball. Their playoff performances, relative to that standard, have been both promising and also troubling.

Dallas clearly proved itself to be the better team not only with its wins but its ability to overcome a 31-point deficit and to keep games close with its best player, Luka Doncic, having the worst playoff series of his life.

At the same time, they don’t deserve to be ahead in the series. They rank ninth in defensive efficiency and 11th in offensive efficiency amongst all 16 playoff teams and shot just 32.8 percent from beyond the arc.

There are many internal causes for Dallas’ decline. Daniel Gafford and Dereck Lively II’s production fell off a cliff compared to where it was, while P.J. Washington is the only player not named Doncic or Kyrie Irving who is averaging double-digit points. Sixth Man of the Year candidate Tim Hardaway Jr. is sidelined by an ankle injury, while the team’s defense went from the best in the league to finish the year to disjointed and schematically disadvantaged.

All of that is not to say that the Mavericks can’t win this series if Doncic does what he said he needs to, which is to help Irving more. Despite averaging 29 points, 9.8 rebounds, and 8.5 assists in the series, the 25-year-old shot just 38.6 percent from the field and 26.5 percent from three-point land. A return to his usual efficiency would make Dallas a heavy favorite to move on to the second round.

Los Angeles Clippers Preview

The Clippers are, in many ways, doing everything they proved they couldn’t in years past. They withstood Leonard’s injury and have the series tied 2-2 against a team it was expected to lose to, while Harden and George took turns producing key moments in the series.

Harden averaged 26 points and 7.0 assists on 54/50/91 shooting splits and was the hero of Game Four, during which he made five clutch floaters in the fourth quarter. George, on the other hand, went 7-10 from beyond the arc for 33 points in Game Four and was steady overall aside from Game Three.

The Clippers lead the playoffs in three-point shooting (43.5 percent) and rank fifth in points per 100 possessions. They shared the ball well and kept pace with the Mavericks on the boards, which is usually one of their weak points.

Coach Tyronn Lue deserves lots of credit for his team’s success thus far. He employed several defensive strategies against Doncic to great success, forcing Irving to take over as the best player on Dallas’ offense.

The Clippers were one of few teams in basketball that performed worse at home than they did on the road, posting an average point differential per 100 possessions of -0.5 on their home floor compared to the road. 

Dallas, for context, was three points per 100 possessions worse during away games.

Mavericks vs. Clippers Game Five Betting Pick

The Clippers don’t have the same ceiling as the Mavericks do but deserve to have the series tied 2-2. Their ability to slow down Doncic and hit timely shots makes them one of the more impressive teams of the first round, especially with Leonard’s injury.

The rest of the series is about whether Doncic will snap back into the player he usually is. His numbers, while great for most players, are below his averages and inefficient. He needs to be better, especially with how little production the rest of his team has provided.

We like the Mavericks to get the job done and trust that Luka will return to his usual dominant self. George and Harden also have the stigma of disappearing in the playoffs for a reason, despite their recent efforts.

Mavericks vs. Clippers pick: Mavericks -3.5 (-105) at BetMGM

Bet on the Mavericks spread at BetMGM

How to Watch Mavericks vs. Clippers Game Five on May 1

When: Wednesday, May 1 @ 7:00/10:00 p.m. PT/ET

Where: crypto.com Arena, Los Angeles, CA

TV: TNT