The Los Angeles Clippers (31-23) will battle the Milwaukee Bucks (29-24) in a cross-conference matchup on Thursday night.
The Clippers won their final three games heading into the All-Star break but are only 12-13 on the road. Meanwhile, the Bucks won nearly two games for every game they lost at home but just lost to the Clippers by 10 points on Jan. 25.
Here, we will break down the odds and share our favorite betting picks for the Clippers vs. Bucks showdown.
The Clippers are 32-22 (59.3 percent) against the spread, 18-11 (62.1 percent) ATS as a favorite, and 12-13 (48 percent) ATS on the road.
The Bucks are 24-29-1 (45.3 percent) ATS, 7-8 (46.7 percent) ATS as an underdog, and 12-13-1 (48 percent) ATS at home.
It’s trendy to make fun of the Clippers for having an older roster or coming up short on their championship expectations over the last half-decade. But in reality, this is a great team that is extremely well-coached and tough to beat.
The Clippers are second only to the Oklahoma City Thunder in defensive rating and allowed the third-fewest points per game. They only climbed as high as 19th in offensive rating, although they figure to get better there as Kawhi Leonard, who scored 25 points in his last game, gets more reps under his belt.
LA is also dominant on the boards and posted the seventh-highest rebound rate in the league. Their one area of major concern is in the turnover department since they gave the ball away at the third-highest frequency.
As impressive as the Clips have been, they posted a -1.1 net rating (12th) across all of their road games. That means they had an 8.1-point worse point differential per 100 possessions on the road than they did at home.
According to Cleaning the Glass, LA—outside of garbage time—outscored opponents with middle-10 point differentials by 5.1 points per 100 possessions and went 10-5 straight-up. That criteria fits the Bucks, who are 11th in net rating.
James Harden and Norman Powell combined for 73 points when these two teams met in the City of Angels a month ago. They also won the rebounding battle and only turned the ball over six times, more than two times less than their average of 15.9.
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Right off the bat, both Giannis Antetokounmpo and Damian Lillard are questionable for this game—Antetokounmpo with a calf issue that held him out since Feb. 2, and Lillard with a hamstring.
Since their 2-8 start, the Bucks went 27-16. That’s the fifth-best record in the league during that time and 2.5 games ahead of the Clippers, who were 25-19 during that same time frame.
Still, the Bucks don’t always pass the eye test. They seem somewhat stagnant and disconnected at times, and it still feels like the Lillard-Antetokounmpo pick-and-roll partnership leaves a lot to be desired.
The Bucks are 13th in offensive and 11th in defensive rating, giving them a +1.2 net rating (11th). They are a horrible 28th in net rating (excluding garbage time) against teams with top-10 point differentials and were outscored by 15.5 points per 100 possessions in these matchups.
That’s a major concern seeing as the Clippers are ninth in net rating.
Milwaukee is only 22nd in rebound rate and figures to be much worse if Antetokounmpo is still out. They, unlike the Clippers, do a solid job of taking care of the ball, and they are the second-best team in the league when it comes to shooting the three ball (38.8 percent).
In the event that Antetokounmpo can’t go, Lillard will be the main man. He scored 43 and 38 points in his final two games before the All-Star break and will have the support of the newly acquired Kyle Kuzma, who averaged 16.3 points, 8.5 rebounds, and 2.5 assists in four games with the team.
Antetotkounmpo and Lillard combined for 65 points and Gary Trent Jr. scored 19 points off the bench in the Bucks’ loss to the Clippers last month. They also held LA to 32.4 percent three-point shooting but committed more than twice as many turnovers as they did and let them go 28-28 from the charity stripe.
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Clippers vs. Bucks pick: Bucks ML (-102) at BetMGM
The Clippers have been more steady in the face of adversity and have a defensive style that, in theory, should travel on the road. The issue is that they’ve looked like a totally different team when they aren’t in their building.
On the flip side, the Bucks have been terrible against the top teams in the league. While the Clippers aren’t on the same level as the OKC Thunder, Cleveland Cavaliers, or Boston Celtics, they are still a formidable opponent.
Antetokounmpo took the All-Star break off to recover, and we’re guessing he plays tonight. Milwaukee has been great at home and played well ever since its treacherous start, and we like them to win outright at home.
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When: Thursday, February 20 @ 7:00/8:00 p.m. CT/ET
Where: Fiserv Forum, Milwaukee, WI
TV: NBA League Pass/ClipperVision
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