NBA Championship Odds, Predictions & Picks: Warriors Fall, Timberwolves Close the Gap

• The Warriors fell after their Game 82 loss to the Clippers

• The Timberwolves and Pacers shortened significantly 

• The Thunder and Celtics are still clear-cut favorites

The NBA Play-In Tournament and NBA Playoffs are set to begin this week, and oddsmakers have posted their final look at pre-postseason NBA championship odds.

The Oklahoma City Thunder and Boston Celtics are still the out-and-out favorites to represent their conference in the biggest game of the year. The Golden State Warriors fell considerably but are still fifth in odds even as the Play-In team, while the Minnesota Timberwolves and Indiana Pacers shortened considerably in odds.

The Milwaukee Bucks are also back from the dead thanks to Giannis Antetokounmpo’s stellar recent play, and the Los Angeles Lakers are hoping to close the gap between the first and second tier of contenders.

Here’s where NBA championship odds stand entering the Play-In Tournament.

2025 NBA Championship Odds

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2025 NBA Championship Pick

• My Pick: Boston Celtics (+190) at FanDuel Sportsbook

The Celtics went 12-7 against teams with top-10 point differentials and have turned it on as of late despite not being fully healthy. Their ability to dominate with offense and defense, inside and out, and their versatility makes it tough to find a single weakness on their team. They also play in the easier of the two conferences and have learned how to dominate on the road with their 24-7 record away from home.

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2025 NBA Finals Favorites

Oklahoma City Thunder

• Head Coach: Mark Daigneault 

• Key Player: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander 

• Player to Watch: Jalen Williams

The Thunder’s statistical dominance is hard to put into words. They’re clearly the best on-paper team in the league and also performed the best against the other elite teams, which gives them tangible proof of concept as they prepare for the toughest months of the season. They’re young and inexperienced and were blown out in the In-Season Tournament finale, which raises questions about their ability to perform in the biggest moments. 

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Boston Celtics

• Head Coach: Joe Mazzulla 

• Key Player: Jayson Tatum

• Player to Watch: Kristaps Porzingis

The Celtics are the gold standard in the NBA. Their status as defending champs helps, but they also mastered the theme of “modern” basketball by having a treasure trove of two-way players who are selfless, intelligent, excellent defenders and shooters, and know when to exploit mismatches. Their only real competition in the Eastern Conference is the Cavaliers, which means they should get to the conference finals without breaking a sweat.

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Cleveland Cavaliers

• Head Coach: Kenny Atkinson

• Key Player: Donovan Mitchell

• Player to Watch: Darius Garland

Cleveland leads the league in two- and three-point percentage, which is an accurate representation of its overall offensive efficiency. They have size in the frontcourt, length on the wings, and two guards who can score off the dribble and create for their teammates, all of which combine to make them one of the most malleable teams in the league. They also split the season series with the Celtics 2-2 and won’t be afraid to see them in the postseason. 

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Los Angeles Lakers

• Head Coach: JJ Redick

• Key Player: Luka Doncic

• Player to Watch: Rui Hachimura

The LeBron James-Luka Doncic pairing is still a work in progress, but the Lakers have been able to generate efficient offense while playing the best defense in the league for nearly two months. Jaxson Hayes played well recently but is still a question mark in a playoff series, particularly if he has to match up with Nikola Jokic. LA is also prone to cold streaks from three and will need James and Doncic to be spectacular during those moments.

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Golden State Warriors

• Head Coach: Steve Kerr

• Key Player: Steph Curry

• Player to Watch: Jimmy Butler

The midseason acquisition of Jimmy Butler completely changed the meddling Warriors’ fortunes and turned them into bonafide championship contenders. They now have two defensive forces with Butler and Draymond Green, have given Curry more license and space to roam the perimeter, and another proven playoff performer. Their defense also looks much more connected, and they’ve been in terrific form to close the regular season.

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2025 NBA Finals Dark Horse Picks

Minnesota Timberwolves

The Timberwolves were one of our top picks early in the year until they fell on hard times. They appear to have found their footing and established strong, healthy habits conducive to winning playoff basketball and have a proof of concept after they made a run to the conference finals last year. They’d benefit from escaping the Play-In picture, but they’re still not far away from even the fourth-place team in the Western Conference.

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Who Won the 2024 NBA Championship?

The Boston Celtics won the 2024 NBA Finals over the Dallas Mavericks 4-1. The C’s did not lose more than one game in any of their playoff series and brought back their entire starting five, along with important bench contributors such as Payton Pritchard and Sam Hauser. 

The title was Boston’s first since 2008 and broke a tie with the Los Angeles Lakers for the most championships in NBA history.

Who Won the 2024 NBA Finals MVP?

Jaylen Brown was named the NBA Finals MVP after he averaged 20.8 points, 5.4 rebounds, 5.0 assists, and 1.6 steals on 44 percent field goal shooting. Brown received seven of 11 first-place votes, while Jayson Tatum (22.2 points, 7.8 rebounds, 7.2 assists) received four.

Which NBA Teams Have Not Won the Finals?

10 of the NBA’s 30 franchises never won an NBA Finals trophy. The list of teams includes the following:

• Brooklyn Nets

• Charlotte Hornets

• Indiana Pacers

• Los Angeles Clippers

• Memphis Grizzlies

• Minnesota Timberwolves

• New Orleans Pelicans

• Orlando Magic

• Phoenix Suns

• Utah Jazz