The Boston Celtics will continue their title defense with a matchup against the Atlanta Hawks on Monday night.
The C’s are 6-1 and coming off of two wins against the Charlotte Hornets in as many days. It’s early in the season, but they look to have even more cohesion than they did last year, while Jayson Tatum is off to a career-best start.
On the other side, the Hawks beat the New Orleans Pelicans 126-111 their last time out to snap a four-game losing streak. They’re 3-4 but have an intriguing roster with lots of versatility and potential.
Here, we will analyze the odds and share our favorite Celtics vs. Hawks betting picks.
The Celtics are 4-3 (57.1 percent) against the spread overall and as the favorite, as well as 2-3 (40 percent) ATS on the road.
The Hawks are a league-worst 1-6 (14.3 percent) ATS with an average margin ATS of -4.6 points. They’re 0-2 ATS as an underdog and 0-4 ATS at home.
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Teams | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
---|---|---|---|
Boston Celtics | -10.5 (-110) | -500 | Over 234.5 (-110) |
Atlanta Hawks | +10.5 (-110) | +375 | Under 234.5 (-110) |
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The Celtics’ dominance heavily relies on the three-point shot. They took 50.3 attempts per game, 8.3 more than they took last year and 4.9 more than the Houston Rockets’ NBA record of 45.4 per game, set during the 2018-19 season.
While basketball pursuits and retired players may not enjoy the aesthetics of Boston’s style, they aren’t haphazardly chucking up shots. They shot 38.1 percent from deep, the eighth-best mark in the league, leading to more than 57 points per game strictly off of three-pointers.
To put that in perspective, teams would need to shoot 58 percent from two, something that only the Cleveland Cavaliers and Sacramento Kings have accomplished, to get the same point value.
Boston is only 13th in defensive rating but ranks ninth in three-point defense, holding opponents to 34.5 percent from deep. They’re also yet to play a game with Kristaps Pozingis, who is recovering from injuries suffered during the last playoffs.
One of the most noticeable improvements with this team is their care for the ball, as they rank number-one in turnover percentage. They’re average on the boards but don’t need to be dominant to create margins within the game.
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Trae Young is one of the most disrespected great players in the history of the NBA. He averaged 27 points and 11.7 assists and has been asked to create the vast majority of Atlanta’s offense.
While Young has posted outstanding individual numbers, he also ranks third in turnovers per game, just behind James Harden and LaMelo Ball. The Hawks are also 17th in assist-to-turnover ratio and 19th in net rating (-3.5 points per 100 possessions).
Unlike the Celtics, the Hawks have the worst three-point defense in the league. They allowed their opponents to take the second-most triples per game (41) and to make a staggering 41.1 percent of their attempts, the highest mark in the league.
This lack of defense is not due to them resting and being content with outstanding offense. They’re 12th in three-point shooting (35.9 percent) and ninth in offensive rating (114.3, 8.2 points behind Boston).
To make matters worse, their on-paper versatility and defensive potential also have not carried over to boards, where they’re 21st in rebound rate.
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Celtics vs. Hawks pick: Celtics -10.5 at BetMGM
This is a total mismatch. The Hawks have the personnel needed to improve, but they are not in any sort of rhythm and are in for a beating at the three-point line.
The Celtics’ one loss came in overtime after they rallied from 20 points down. Meanwhile, the Hawks recently lost back-to-back games to the Washington Wizards and lost to the OKC Thunder, the only other contender they faced, by 24 points.
Don’t be surprised if this gets out of hand early and the Celtics dominate the Hawks for 48 minutes.
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When: Monday, Nov. 4 @ 7:45 p.m. ET
Where: State Farm Arena, Atlanta, GA
TV: NBA League Pass, YouTube TV
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