Cavaliers vs. Thunder Prediction and Odds for January 16: Historic Rematch Between First-Place Foes

The Cleveland Cavaliers (34-5) are set to take on the Oklahoma City Thunder (33-6) just eight days after their historic matchup that ended in a seven-point win for the Cavs.

The Jan. 8 showdown between the two marked just the second time in NBA history that two teams with records of at least 30-5 faced off against one another. The Thunder won all three games since that matchup, while the Cavs won two of three with a lone loss to the Indiana Pacers four days ago.

The Thunder are the clear-cut favorites to represent the Western Conference in the NBA Finals, while the Cavs are still behind but making up ground on the Boston Celtics. 

Here, we will analyze the matchup and share our favorite Cavaliers vs. Thunder betting picks for Thursday.

Cavaliers vs. Thunder Betting Odds for Thursday, January 16

The Cavs are a league-best 27-12 (69.2 percent) against the spread, 13-4 (76.5 percent) ATS on the road, and 3-0 (100 percent) ATS as an underdog.

The Thunder have the second-best record ATS at 25-12-3 (67.6 percent) and are 12-5-1 )70.6 percent) ATS at home and 24-11-3 (68.6 percent) ATS as a favorite.

Odds for the Cavaliers vs. Thunder game are courtesy of BetMGM Sportsbook. Head over to BetMGM to Get Up to $1,500 in Bonus Bets*.

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Cavaliers vs. Thunder Prediction

Cleveland Cavaliers Preview

Near the halfway point in the season, it’s fair to say that the Cavs are no longer off to a great start—they are just a great team.

Cleveland is on pace for 71 wins, which would give them the third-best record in NBA history, only behind the 2015-16 Golden State Warriors and the 1995-96 Chicago Bulls. They’re first in offensive rating with a number (121.3) that would rank second all-time, and they’re 10th in defensive rating. Their +10.5 point differential per 100 possessions is second only to the Thunder.

The majority of Cleveland’s success can be attributed to their offensive discipline and execution. They don’t run the most innovative concepts in the world and don’t have perennial NBA MVP contenders on their roster, but they move the ball, cut hard, attack empty spaces, stick to their strengths, and are never selfish with the ball.

The Cavs lead the league in three-point shooting at 39.9 percent, resulting in the third-most made threes per game. Incomprehensibly, they also lead the league in two-point percentage (58.6), which perfectly sums up their array of skill sets and the constant pressure opposing defenses take on whenever they line up across from this team.

Cleveland’s offense ranks in the top five in points per possession on trips involving a fastbreak, spot-ups, pick-and-rolls where the ball-handler takes the shot, cuts, put-backs, and hand-offs. In simple terms, they are more than capable and comfortable attacking based on the looks defenses give them as opposed to leaning into one area of the game.

There’s a bulletproof proof of concept with this team, considering their previous matchup with the Thunder. They shot 52.2 percent from the field, 41.7 percent from three, and scored 129 points, the most that OKC allowed in a game all year.

Jarrett Allen had a field day against the Thunder’s small interior in the last meeting, going for 25 points, 11 rebounds, and six assists. The team’s leading scorer, Donovan Mitchell, only went 3-16 for 11 points, and the team still found a way to score as much as it did as efficiently as it did.

Oklahoma City Thunder Preview

It’s terrifying to think about how good the Thunder can be years down the road, considering they’re still one of the youngest teams in the league, have an enormous amount of draft capital stashed aside, and basically have not had their second-best player, Chet Holmgren, for the whole year.

While the Cavs terrify teams with their unrelenting offense, the Thunder prefer to suffocate their opponents with stifling defense. Their 102.9 points allowed per 100 possessions is four points clear of the next-closest team, the Orlando Magic. For context, that’s a wider gap than there is between the Memphis Grizzlies (fifth) and the Atlanta Hawks (20th). 

Teams shot just 42.5 percent from the floor against the Thunder, 2.3 percent lower than they did against the second-place Grizzlies. They also shot 32 percent from three, also the lowest in the league and well clear of the second-place Chicago Bulls (33.9 percent).

Not only does OKC stop teams in their tracks, but they also generate offense from their defense. Their 23.2 points off turnovers per game are 2.8 clear of the second place (Cleveland is third at 20.1).

In addition, they turned the ball over at the second-lowest frequency and allowed the fewest points per game off of turnovers.

OKC can score the ball with the best teams in the league too. They rank sixth in offensive rating despite being just 20th in three-point shooting percentage (35), well below the league-best 38.5 percent they shot last year.

If there is a place in which the Thunder struggle to be competitive, it is on the boards. They’re 27th in rebound rate, but they actually out-rebounded the Cavs 40-38 in their last meeting. 

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander can essentially be penciled in for 30 points per night, but he needs his supporting cast to step up against an offensive juggernaut. Jalen Williams had 25 and Isaiah Hrtenstein had 18 points in the last meeting, but those still weren’t enough to deliver a victory. 

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Cavaliers vs. Thunder Betting Pick

Cavaliers vs. Thunder pick: Thunder ML (-125) at BetMGM 

A common theme between these two teams is that they are excellent off the bench and don’t have to sacrifice style or quality of play when resting their starters.

The Cavs proved they could score against OKC’s incredible defense, but OKC also had plenty of success and was just a few stops away from earning a road victory. We expect this game to be incredibly close yet again and to come down to the wire.

The Thunder remaining perfect since the teams’ last meeting while the Cavs lost shows there may have been a slight decline in focus on the part of Cleveland. The fact that OKC is at home also gives them the tiniest of advantages in our eyes.

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How to Watch Cavaliers vs. Thunder on 1/16/25

• When: Thursday, January 16 @ 7:30 p.m. ET

• Where: Paycom Center, Oklahoma City, OK

• TV: TNT/truTV/Max

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