Cavaliers vs. Nuggets Prediction and Odds for December 27: Cavs Flirting With History

The Cleveland Cavaliers (26-4) are out to protect the league’s best record when they pay a visit to the Denver Nuggets (16-12) on Friday.

The Cavs have not relented during their record-setting start, winning five straight games and nine of their last 10. They took down the Nuggets 126-114 at home on Dec. 5 during that stretch and shot 50 percent from the field and made 22 threes.

The Nuggets were defeated by the Phoenix Suns 110-100 their last time on the court on Christmas. Their defensive execution in that game was appalling, especially considering they’d just beaten the Suns by 27 points two days before.

Here, we will analyze the betting odds and share our favorite Cavaliers vs. Nuggets picks for Friday.

Cavaliers vs. Nuggets Betting Odds for Friday, December 27

The Cavs are a league-best 21-9 (70 percent) against the spread, 18-9 (66.7 percent) ATS as a favorite, and 8-4 (66.7 percent) ATS on the road.

The Nuggets are 11-16-1 (40.7 percent) ATS, 6-2 (75 percent) ATS as an underdog, and 5-6-1 (45.5 percent) ATS at home.

Odds for the Cavaliers vs. Nuggets game are courtesy of BetMGM Sportsbook. Head over to BetMGM to place your bets and claim up to $1,500 in bonus bets* with our promo code WSNSPORTS.

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Cavaliers vs. Nuggets Prediction

Cleveland Cavaliers Preview

The Cavaliers’ season hasn’t gotten anywhere near the credit it deserves. There are only eight teams in NBA history that got off to a better start through 30 games than they did, the most recent of which was the record-setting Golden State Warriors, who went 29-1 to start their 2015-16 campaign.

The Cavs are relentless in their offensive execution. The ball rarely sits in places it shouldn’t, the players are always moving around the court, and the team’s multitude of actions allows them to create threes, mismatches in the post, or to attack the rim with less resistance than most teams face.

As a result, Cleveland leads the lead in offensive rating at 121. They’re also seventh in defensive rating largely thanks to the versatility of frontcourt players Jarrett Allen and Evan Mobley.

The defensive burden placed on those two is also somewhat reflected in the team’s rebounding percentage, as despite the two of them averaging 19 combined boards per game, they’re below league-average in rebound rate.

The Cavs unsurprisingly lead the league with an outstanding 40.6 percent shooting from three-point land. Where they set themselves apart from other teams with long-range snipers is that they also lead the league in two-point percentage at 58.3 percent.

Cleveland’s new lack of reliance on Donovan Mitchell has also worked to its advantage. That’s not to say that Mitchell (23.3 points, 4.6 rebounds, 4.6 assists) isn’t having a great season, but it’s allowed other players, namely Mobley and Darius Garland, to take on larger roles in the offense and to become more consistent scoring threats, thereby preventing defenses from tilting in Mitchell’s direction.

It’s worth noting that while the Cavs are 17-1 in their building, they are 9-3 and outscored their opponents by an average of 7.3 points per game on the road—still excellent, but not as unbeatable as they are at home.

Denver Nuggets Preview

What do we make of the Nuggets at this point in time? Their season will be a abject failure if they don’t win the championship, but they also don’t look to have a realistic chance at fulfilling those expectations without a drastic change in their play or roster.

Let’s start with the good: the Nuggets posted the sixth-best offensive rating in basketball and scored more points in the paint than any team. That’s not surprising, considering they are headlined by center and best player in the world, Nikola Jokic.

Where everything goes awry is on the defensive end. They’re 15th in defensive rating, Jokic is 22nd among starting centers in field goal percentage allowed, and they showed a total lack of desire and communication in their festive loss to Phoenix on Wednesday.

The Nuggets are fourth in rebound rate, yet they are only 22nd in second-chance points allowed. Whether because of their communication or interest in making multiple efforts, they also struggle to deal with teams that move the ball quickly and crisply. 

Denver can still hang onto the fact it ranks 11th in three-point percentage allowed (35.5), which is enough to survive most teams it plays. The key here will be if it can lock in against the league’s best long-range shooters, especially since the Cavs made 45.8 percent of their attempts when they squared off a few weeks ago. 

Jokic, in the game against the Cavs, had 27 points, 20 rebounds, and 11 assists. He also averaged 30.7 points, 12.6 rebounds, and 9.4 assists, but the Nuggets were outscored by an average of 3.8 points per 100 possessions for the season overall when their reserves were in the game (26th). Cleveland, for comparison, is second at +5.2.

The Nuggets also haven’t leveraged their home-court advantage very well as they’re 12th in home net rating.

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Cavaliers vs. Nuggets Betting Pick

• Cavaliers vs. Nuggets pick: Cavaliers -2.5 (-110) at BetMGM

The Nuggets are always going to have a chance against any team because of Jokic, and to a lesser extent, the rest of their starting lineup… but if Jokic’s last performance against the Cavs resulted in a loss, it’s going to take a lot more than his individual brilliance to manufacturer a W on Friday.

The Cavs are still red-hot and have several stylistic advantages here, particularly with their ability to shoot the three, and Denver’s reliance on paint points against one of the tallest frontcourts in the sport.

This one seems pretty clear. We’ll take the Cavs laying the points on the road.

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How to Watch Cavaliers vs. Nuggets on 12/27/24

• When: Friday, December 27 @ 7:00/9:00 p.m. MT/ET

• Where: Ball Arena, Denver, CO

• TV: NBA League Pass

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