Bucks vs. Warriors Prediction and Odds: Dubs Look for Answers After Head-Scratching Defeat

The Milwaukee Bucks (38-29) will head to the Bay Area to take on the Golden State Warriors (39-29) on their second night of a back-to-back.

The Bucks only won two of their last six games and are 14-17 on the road, yet they’re favored in this game. Damian Lillard and Giannis Antetokounmpo are both banged up but are expected to play as of Tuesday morning.

The Warriors enter the matchup fresh off an unexpected nine-point loss to the Denver Nuggets sans Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray. Steve Kerr said after the game that Steph Curry was “exhausted” and could sit out of Tuesday’s matchup.

With all of the uncertainty in the air, I will break down the Bucks vs. Warriors odds and share my favorite betting picks for the primetime showdown.

For more betting insights, check out our NBA Player Props and Best Bets.

Bucks vs. Warriors Betting Odds for Tuesday, March 18

The Bucks are 32-24-2 (48.5 percent) against the spread, 23-23-1 ATS (50 percent) as a favorite, and 12-18-1 (40 percent) ATS on the road.

The Warriors are 34-32-2 (51.5 percent) ATS, 13-1 (54.2 percent) ATS as an underdog, and 16-18-1 (47.1 percent) ATS at home.

Odds from BetMGM Sportsbook. Use our BetMGM promo code WSNSPORTS to get up to $1,500 in bonus bets.

Bucks vs. Warriors Prediction

Milwaukee Bucks Preview

Let’s get one thing straight: nobody wants to run into the Bucks in the postseason.

The Antetokounmpo-Lillard pairing is among the most lethal in the league, particularly in a playoff setting. Both are playing well in recent weeks and have the ability to win games on their own.

That said, the basketball world hasn’t feared the deer on the road in a while. Their -2.6 net rating away from their building is only 15th and behind a team like the Chicago Bulls, not to mention they already lost to the Warriors by 14 points at home (albeit without Antetokounmpo).

Milwaukee is 16th in offensive and seventh in defensive rating with a +4.9 net rating (eighth) over the last month of play. It is also 14th in offensive and 11th in defensive rating with a +2.0 (12th) net rating for the year as a whole.

Crucially, the Bucks are 11-6 straight-up and 8-8-1 ATS when they had a rest advantage, which they will have on Tuesday night.

An area in which the Bucks have been consistent all season is their three-point shooting. They held onto the second-best percentage from deep (38.4), while the Warriors ranked 22nd in three-point percentage allowed (36.5) over their last month of play. That’s despite going 11-2 straight-up during that stretch.

The Bucks also have a sizable advantage when it comes to defending the interior. Jimmy Butler can apply offensive rim pressure, but the Dubs don’t do much probing of the paint otherwise and will miss Curry’s perimeter gravity if he doesn’t play.

Despite the size difference, the Bucks have been much worse on the boards than the Warriors (18th to ninth in rebound rate). That will also be a point of emphasis, given their size advantage.

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Golden State Warriors Preview

I picked the Nuggets to cover and beat the Warriors yesterday not knowing that Jokic and Murray would sit. 

My reasoning was that while nearly everything has gone right since Butler showed up in town, they’d faced one of the easiest schedules in the league and didn’t have to play tough teams in adverse circumstances, such as on the road or on the second night of a back-to-back.

A second game in two days against Antetokounmpo and Lillard would certainly qualify as an adverse situation, even if the Bucks have a losing record on the road. That presents Golden State with an immense opportunity to take another step in the direction of championship pursuit after their forgettable start to the campaign.

The Warriors are third in offensive and defensive rating with a league-best +11.6 net rating over the last month. All of those marks are significant improvements on their season standards, though they will mean next to nothing if Curry can’t play.

The Dubs went 6-3 without Curry this season, but half of those wins came against the lowly Utah Jazz and New Orleans Pelicans. Butler could theoretically give them a chance since he was used to carrying the load in Miami, but the line would likely swing further in Milwaukee’s favor in the event that Curry can’t go.

For what it’s worth, I believe Kerr’s assertion. The Warriors last night became the first team in NBA and WNBA history to shoot below 25 percent from three, below 60 percent from the free throw line, and have at least 20 turnovers in the same game, all of which scream of the exhaustion that is part and parcel of having an older team.

The easiest way for the Dubs to get back on track is to focus on the details. Take care of the ball, crash the defensive glass, and win the battle at the three-point line.

Of course, that is easier said than done, especially after last night’s horrendous loss.

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Bucks vs. Warriors Betting Pick

• Bucks vs. Warriors pick: Bucks -3.5 (-110) at BetMGM

There’s a distinct possibility that the Warriors were fueled by last night’s defeat and come out with their hair on fire. However, I don’t believe that’s a likely reality.

The Warriors were a meddling team all year, caught fire against bad teams when Butler arrived, and are now searching for answers after just one loss. The Bucks have been terrible on the road, but they have at least one, if not the two best players in this matchup, depending on if Curry sits.

I like the Bucks to win and cover this line in a hard reset for the Warriors.

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How to Watch Bucks vs. Warriors on 3/18/25

• When: Tuesday, March 18 @ 7:00/10:00 p.m. PT/ET

• Where: Chase Center, San Francisco, CA

• TV: NBA TV