Bucks vs. Thunder Prediction and Odds for February 3: In-Season Tournament Championship Rematch

The Milwaukee Bucks (26-21) are preparing to take on the Oklahoma City Thunder (38-9) to start the new week on Monday night.

The Bucks and Thunder memorably squared off in the NBA Cup Final earlier this season, a game that ended in favor of the visiting Bucks. They’re only 9-13 on the road and have lost three straight games, and they now have to travel to OKC for the second night of a back-to-back. 

The Thunder have been the best team in the Western Conference all season long and enter on the back of a 34-point win over the Sacramento Kings. They’re 21-3 at home but have several important players listed as questionable on the injury report. 

Here, we will preview the matchup and share our best Bucks vs. Thunder betting picks.

Bucks vs. Thunder Betting Odds for Monday, February 3

The Bucks are 22-25-1 (46.8 percent) against the spread, 9-13 (40.9 percent) ATS on the road, and 5-6 (45.5 percent) ATS as an underdog.

The Thunder are 28-17-3 (62.2 percent) ATS, 15-7-1 (68.2 percent) ATS at home, and 27-16-3 (62.8 percent) ATS as a favorite.

Bucks vs. Thunder Prediction

Milwaukee Bucks Preview

The Bucks are in a season of oscillation. They were terrible, they won the In-Season Tournament, they struggled, got hot, and have now lost four of their last five games. 

Right off the bat, seeing a team with Giannis Antetokounmpo, Damian Lillard, and Khris Middleton as a 10.5-point underdog stands out. They beat the Thunder by 16 points in their only matchup this season and are still fourth in odds to win the Eastern Conference.

Milwaukee’s offense played well in recent weeks, ranking sixth in offensive rating over the last 15 games. Their defense was down at 15th in rating, leading to them outsourcing their last 15 opponents by 4.2 points per 100 possessions (eighth). 

This is an improvement on their season mark of +2.0, which ranks 10th. 

One of the keys to the Bucks’ strong play as of late is their ball security. They ranked just sixth in turnover frequency, which allowed them to overcome their subpar rebounding (17th in rebound rate over the last 15 games). 

Meanwhile, the Bucks held teams to 34.4 percent (ninth) shooting from three-point land and ranked second at 39.1 percent during the same time.

Sadly, these metrics have meant very little whenever the Bucks went on the road. They’re only 19th in road net rating and 1-5 in their last six games away from home.

Damian Lillard had a nice start to the New Year but tailed off over the last week, averaging 19 points on 34.7 percent shooting from the field and 33.3 percent from three.

Giannis Antetokounmpo has been outstanding and is coming off a month during which he averaged 30.5 points, 13.2 rebounds, and 5.7 assists on 60 percent shooting.

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Oklahoma City Thunder Preview

It’s a testament to what the Thunder have built that they can lose their second-best player, Jalen Williams, and have the former 55th pick in the draft, Aaron Wiggins, step into the starting lineup and drop a career-high 41 points and 14 rebounds to earn them yet another win.

The Thunder make a living with their airtight defense. Their 104.2 defensive rating is far and away the best in the league and is 3.6 points ahead of the second-place Los Angeles Clippers, while their +12.3 net rating also leads the league.

Don’t be fooled by OKC’s suffocating pressure—they can get buckets too. The team is sixth in offensive rating, sandwiched right between the Memphis Grizzlies and the Sacramento Kings.

Their surge in offensive production coincides with improved three-point shooting. They had a poor start to the year after they led the NBA in team three-point percentage a year ago, but they climbed up to fourth in percentage (38.2) over the last 15 games. 

They also held opposing teams to 31 percent shooting from three, mirroring their league-best season average of 32.5 percent allowed. 

OKC also found rare moments of success on the glass, checking in at 12th in rebound rate during the same sample. And as great of a team as this is, it’s even better when playing at home, having posted a +13.9 net rating. 

There’s a lot of pressure on NBA MVP candidate Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, who only scored 21 points on 33.3 percent shooting in his lone matchup with the Bucks. SGA is two games removed from a 52-point explosion and averaged 36.5 points on 53 percent shooting in January, but he could be without Williams (questionable) yet again.

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Bucks vs. Thunder Betting Pick

• Bucks vs. Thunder pick: Bucks +10.5 (-105) at BetMGM 

The Bucks’ size and relentless interior pressure proved to be a major issue for the Thunder the last time they played. OKC also had a historically poor night shooting the ball from range, which hasn’t been as much of an issue recently.

Both teams are shooting the ball and defending the perimeter well. This may have to be a big night for Isiaah Hartenstein, both in his ability to close out possessions after one shot and to serve as a roadblock for Antetokounmpo whenever he’s headed downhill.

Players like Giannis and Dame love to get up for big games. OKC is rightfully favored, but we’d look at the Bucks with the points. 

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How to Watch Bucks vs. Thunder on 2/3/25

• When: Monday, February 3 @ 8:00 p.m. ET

• Where: Paycom Center, Oklahoma City, OK

• TV: NBA League Pass

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