Bucks vs. Thunder Prediction and Odds for December 17: Who Will Win the Second NBA Cup?

The Milwaukee Bucks (14-11) are set to take on the Oklahoma City Thunder (20-5) in the championship match of the second NBA In-Season Tournament, live in Las Vegas.

The Bucks endured a pitiful start to the season but won 10 of their last 12 games and are 6-0 in NBA Cup play. The Thunder have been much more consistent and are also on a roll, winning nine of their last 10 and going 5-1 in IST games.

With the first piece of hardware on the line this NBA season, here are our best Bucks vs. Thunder betting picks for the In-Season Tournament.

Bucks vs. Thunder Betting Odds for Tuesday, December 17

The Bucks are 10-14-1 (41.7 percent) against the spread, 3-3 (50 percent) ATS as an underdog, and covered in six of their last 11 games.

The Thunder are 16-9 (64 percent) ATS, 15-9 (62.5 percent) ATS as a favorite, and covered in five straight games.

Odds for the Bucks vs. Thunder game are courtesy of BetMGM Sportsbook. Head over to BetMGM to place your bets and claim up to $1,500 in bonus bets* with our promo code WSNSPORTS.

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Bucks vs. Thunder Prediction

Milwaukee Bucks Preview

The last few weeks of basketball produced the version of the Bucks that the world was used to seeing prior to Doc Rivers’ arrival. They moved the ball unselfishly and with better fluidity on offense, gave better and more sustained defensive efforts, and closed out tight games down the stretch.

The Bucks are only 11th in offensive and 15th in defensive rating for the season, resulting in a net rating of +1.4. However, They were 10th in offensive and eighth in defensive rating over their last 15 games, leading to them posting a net rating of +5.7 (eighth) during that stretch.

Despite having tremendous size, the Bucks aren’t a great rebounding team. They ranked 10th in turnover frequency and forced the third-fewest turnovers per game while ranking 17th in pace.

Milwaukee ranks third in three-point shooting with a season standard of 38.9 percent. They were even better over their last 10 games, lighting the nets on fire at a rate of 43.1 percent. 

Just as importantly, the Bucks ranked seventh and held their opponents to 34.1 percent shooting from deep during that same period. 

Giannis Antetokounmpo (32.7 points, 11.5 rebounds, 6.1 assists, 1.6 blocks) has been nothing short of sensational this season. His running mate, Damian Lillard (25.7 points, 7.5 assists, 4.5 rebounds) is also playing much better and looks more comfortable than he did during his first season in Milwaukee in 2023-24. 

One of the defining qualities of the Bucks this season is their clutch factor. They rank seventh in clutch net rating during the season overall and fourth in In-Season Tournament games, outscoring opponents by an average of 26.5 points per 100 possessions in clutch situations.

Oklahoma City Thunder Preview

Mark Daigneault should be the early frontrunner to repeat as the Coach of the Year for the job he’s done with the Thunder. The team is still incredibly young but looks experienced, connected, and systemized, with everyone playing a part and understanding when and where they are expected to contribute.

OKC also played most of the season without their second-best player, Chet Holmgren, who was lost to a long-term hip injury early in the campaign.

The Thunder posted a league-best defensive rating of 103.1 and are eighth in offensive rating at 115.2. That means they outscored their opponents by an average of 12.1 points per 100 possessions, a mark that has only been bested by the 1995-96 Chicago Bulls.

OKC is terrible on the boards but commits turnovers at the lowest rate in the league, ensuring they don’t give away cheap buckets. They also rank first in points scored and allowed off of turnovers, which allows them to create margins within games that might not exist for teams with different personnel. 

The Thunder did not shoot the three well at any point this season, including recently or in NBA Cup matchups. However, they held their opponents to a league-best 33.1 percent from long range, a number that dropped to 32.8 percent during the In-Season Tournament.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is the metronome to the team’s offense and averaged 30.3 points, 6.3 assists, and 5.5 rebounds on 51 percent shooting. He also scored 32 and 39 in the two recent elimination games as part of the run-up to Tuesday’s championship match.

Jalen Wiliams has also been great, averaging 21.7 points, 6.1 rebounds, and 5.0 assists.

The Thunder won’t be intimidated by the Bucks down the stretch of close games as they are fourth in the league in clutch net rating (+16) and were even better in the In-Season Tournament (+20).

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Bucks vs. Thunder Betting Pick

• Bucks vs. Thunder pick: Bucks +4.5 (-105) at BetMGM

The Bucks are finally playing how they should with a top-two player in the world and a player who built his legacy largely on his late-game heroics. They have a serious size advantage but will be tested on the perimeter both with their control of the ball and their commitment to locking in defensively.

The Thunder had a great season so far and last year but were knocked for their inexperience. This is a great opportunity for them to prove themselves and to get reps winning important games for when the playoffs roll around.

This should be a great matchup between two very exciting teams. Ultimately, we believe that the Bucks’ hot three-point shooting and size advantage will allow them to pull a surprise upset and win the second NBA Cup.

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How to Watch Bucks vs. Thunder on 12/17/24

• When: Tuesday, Dec. 17 @ 5:30/8:30 p.m. PT/ET

• Where: T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, NV

• TV: ABC

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