Bucks vs. Pacers Prediction and Odds: Will Anyone Help Giannis?

The No. 5 Milwaukee Bucks will visit the No. 4 Indiana Pacers down 0-1 in their first-round Eastern Conference Playoff series on Tuesday night.

The Bucks are 20-21 on the road across the regular and postseason and were defeated by 19 points in the Game 1 matchup. Damian Lillard is questionable for the matchup but has a chance to play in his first game since a blood clot was discovered in his calf following a March 18 road matchup with the Golden State Warriors.

The Pacers made it to the conference finals a year ago and have the fourth-best record in the NBA since the turn of the year. They outclassed the Bucks across the board, but they still have no way to slow down Giannis Antetokounmpo.

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Here, I will break down the Bucks vs. Pacers betting odds and share my favorite picks for Game 2 on Tuesday. 

Bucks vs. Pacers Betting Odds for Tuesday, April 22

The Bucks are 43-39-2 (52.4 percent) against the spread, 19-21-1 (47.5 percent) ATS on the road, and 16-12-1 (57.1 percent) ATS as an underdog.

The Pacers are 37-43-3 (46.3 percent) ATS, 18-21-3 (46.2 percent) ATS at home, and 21-29-2 (42 percent) ATS as a favorite.

Odds from BetMGM Sportsbook. Use our BetMGM promo code WSNSPORTS to get up to $1,500 in bonus bets*.

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Bucks vs. Pacers Prediction

Milwaukee Bucks Preview

Where do I even start with the Bucks in Game 1?

Most of the starters flat-out didn’t show up. Kyle Kuzma didn’t register a stat in 21 minutes, Taurean Prince didn’t score, Brook Lopez was a -18, and Ryan Rollins was 2-8 shooting in only 19 minutes.

The obvious omission in that list is Antetokounmpo, who predictably went for 36 points and 12 rebounds. However, whereas he averaged 11.8 assists per game in April, he was held to just one assist, which was a great reflection of the lack of support he received from his team.

Bobby Portis, Gary Trent Jr., Kevin Porter Jr., and AJ Green all played more minutes than every non-Giannis starter. It wouldn’t be a surprise to see a bench-heavy rotation moving forward, given the lack of effort and execution the other four starters gave in Game 1.

The Bucks as a team finished shooting just 9-37 (24.3 percent) from three. They committed twice as many turnovers as the Pacers (10 to five), lost the fastbreak points battle (23 to 15), scored fewer second-chance points (15 to nine), and gave up an absurd 76 points in the paint. 

Many of those metrics go beyond tactical execution and speak to their effort and level of engagement, or the lack thereof.

There are two glaring problems staring the Bucks in the face moving forward. The first is their lack of creation from players not named Giannis, whom the Pacers are content to let produce video game-like numbers if it means they can remain attached to the other Milwaukee players.

The second is their lethargy in defending against the Pacers’ transition speed. Indy prioritized getting the ball across halfcourt as quickly as they could, and the Bucks often found themselves without their defense set and all of their players back in position.

The Bucks won the season series 3-1, but they didn’t look worthy of sharing the court with Indy in Game 1.

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Indiana Pacers Preview

The first matchup of the series couldn’t have gone better for the Pacers, yet they can be even better.

While the home team shot 51.9 percent from the field and 38.2 percent from deep, they did it with Tyrese Haliburton going 3-13 (0-7) en route to 10 points, 12 assists, and seven rebounds. 

To Haliburton’s credit, he only had one turnover and played a leading role in the Pacers maintaining their tempo and simply overwhelming the Milwaukee defense. Pascal Siakam led the team with 25 points on just 15 shots, and six players scored double-digits.

Part of coaching in the playoffs is preparing the adjustment to the adjustment. But before Rick Carlisle can implement that, Doc Rivers is going to need to find a way to create quality shots for non-Giannis players, since Indy’s approach of letting him eat and shutting the water off for everyone else worked like a charm.

The Pacers shocked the basketball world by getting to the conference finals last year. They are still a young team, but they have the experience of a deep playoff run under their belt. This is an opportunity to send one of the best players in the world back to Wisconsin in an 0-2 hole, and giving up a game, considering how dominant they were, would be a travesty.

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Bucks vs. Pacers Betting Pick

• Bucks vs. Pacers pick: Pacers -4.5 (-110) at BetMGM 

The Bucks are yet to arrive in this series, but I worry that they never will. Antetokounmpo will be hard-pressed to have a greater individual impact than he did in Game 1 and his team wasn’t even close to competitive, and the other players didn’t look interested or even capable of making a positive difference.

The potential return of Lillard also might not be an immediate positive. It’s unclear how frequently or intensely he could work out over the last month, and he will likely have at least one layer of rust after all of the time off.

I don’t see the Bucks stealing home court at this juncture. If they’re going to get back in this series, I expect it to happen at home, and for the Pacers to win and cover the 4.5 points.

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How to Watch Bucks vs. Pacers on 4/22/25

• When: Tuesday, April 22 @ 7:00 p.m. ET

• Where: Gainbridge Fieldhouse, Indianapolis, IN

• TV: NBA TV