Bucks vs. Pacers Prediction and Odds: Can Giannis, Dame Make it 3-0 Against Indy

The Milwaukee Bucks (36-27) and Indiana Pacers (35-28) will renew their rivalry in a Tuesday night matchup in Indianapolis.

The Bucks are nine games above .500 but only 14-16 on the road. They beat the Pacers in both of their previous matchups by 12 and eight points and won eight of their last 11 games overall.

The Pacers are 19-9 in their building but lost three straight games, including a 121-103 contest against the Chicago Bulls on Monday night. Tyrese Haliburton missed that game with a hip injury and is questionable for Tuesday’s showdown.

Here, we will review the odds and share our favorite Bucks vs. Pacers betting picks for Tuesday.

For more betting insights, check out our NBA Player Props and Best Bets.

Bucks vs. Pacers Betting Odds for Tuesday, March 11

The Bucks are 30-33-1 (47.6 percent) against the spread, 21-23-1 (47.7 percent) ATS as a favorite, and 12-18 (40 percent) ATS on the road.

The Pacers are 30-32-1 (48.4 percent) ATS, 13-13 (52 percent) ATS as an underdog, and 15-13-1 (53.6 percent) ATS at home.

Odds from BetMGM Sportsbook. Use our BetMGM promo code WSNSPORTS to get up to $1,500 in bonus bets.

Bucks vs. Pacers Prediction

Milwaukee Bucks Preview

This has not been the season the Bucks had hoped for. They started the year in a terrible run of form and find themselves 17.5 games out of first place in the Eastern Conference and only one game above the sixth-place Detroit Pistons, who have +25000 NBA Finals odds.

At the same time, the Bucks are 34-19 since the first 10 games of the season, tying them for the fifth-best record in basketball since that time. Only the Oklahoma City Thunder, Cleveland Cavaliers, Boston Celtics, and New York Knicks were better.

The Bucks rank 13th in offensive and ninth in defensive efficiency for the year with a +2.0 net rating (11th). They were worse across the board and dropped to a -2.6 net rating on the road (15th).

As great of a rebounder as Giannis Antetkounmpo is, the Bucks are only a league-average 15th in rebound rate since the turn of the year. That was exacerbated by the loss of Bobby Portis, who was suspended 25 games for taking a banned substance, a painkiller called Tramadol.

On a more positive note, the Bucks are seventh in effective field goal percentage in 2025. That was spurred by their continued proficiency from downtown, from where they shot 38.3 for the year (third).

Giannis and his star running mate, Damian Lillard, have also been exceptional since the All-Star break. The pair averaged 51.4 points, 16.1 rebounds, and 10.7 assists per game on 58.9 and 46.3 percent shooting from the field, respectively.

Kyle Kuzma has also had a positive impact since his midseason arrival. Although he didn’t create the same statistical impact as Khris Middleton, the player he was traded for, the Bucks were 1.3 points per 100 possessions better with Kuzma on the floor than they were without him. 

Milwaukee has been dominant against middle-of-the-road teams like Indiana, posting a +7.9 outside of garbage time against teams ranked 11-20 in average point differential, per Cleaning the Glass. They also went 16-4 straight-up and covered the spread by an average of 4.9 points, the fourth-best mark in the league in these matchups.

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Indiana Pacers Preview

The Pacers are tough to figure out. They quietly rose to the fourth seed in the Eastern Conference and were one of the best teams in the league entering the New Year, but they’ve now lost five of their last eight games and could be without their best player, Haliburton.

This year’s iteration of Indiana hoopers is much more deliberate with their principles. They no longer play at a frenetic pace and look to diagnose defenses in the halfcourt while also paying much more attention to the defensive side of the court.

The Pacers find themselves eighth in offensive and 17th in defensive rating with a +0.7 net rating (15th) for the season. They improved offensively and defensively on their home floor, helping them yield a +4.5 net rating (12th) in their arena.

While the Pacers’ identity may have changed stylistically, they still lack a strong interior presence the same way they did last year. They posted the second-worst rebound rate in the sport and allowed Antetokounmpo to average 33.5 points, 11 rebounds, and eight assists in their two meetings. 

Indy’s strongest defensive asset is its ability to take away the three-point shot. They’re only just above league-average in shooting percentage allowed, but their intense perimeter pressure resulted in their opponents making the fifth-fewest threes per game. That will be a situation to monitor against a team as efficient as the Bucks at shooting from range.

The Pacers posted a +3.2 net rating and a 13-9 record against teams with middle-10 point differentials (Milwaukee is 12th). They covered the spread by an average of 2.7 points in these matchups, the seventh-best mark in the Association.

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Bucks vs. Pacers Betting Pick

• Bucks vs. Pacers pick: Bucks -2.5 (-115) at BetMGM

This matchup is tough to call. The Pacers are slumping and struggled against the Bucks, but the latter has been mediocre on the road, while the former has been strong at home.

Haliburton’s status is a major factor here. The spread favoring Milwaukee suggests the oddsmakers are accounting for his absence, but we’d advise waiting until close to tip-off to get a complete picture of who is and isn’t available.

All things considered—and even if Haliburton plays—we like the Bucks to win and cover. They have interior strength and can capitalize on a weakness of Indy’s, not to mention they’ve been fairly consistent since the first 10 games of the year and had success in this matchup.

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How to Watch Bucks vs. Pacers on 3/11/25

• When: Tuesday, March 11 @ 7:30 p.m. ET

• Where: Gainbridge Fieldhouse, Indianapolis, IN 

• TV: TNT/truTV/Max